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Mookie Betts Signing: Shades Of Lady Gaga

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The echoes of Lady Gaga’s Poker Face race through the memory banks. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship, 55% less likely, according to odds makers, than the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Almost as bad as the Patriots odds against the Falcons down 28-3. Gaga performed at halftime, and the rest was history. These were a fraction of the long odds the Red Sox were looking at resigning Mookie Betts a month ago. Then he signed with the Red Sox for $20 Million last week. Is this the turning point that Hightower’s sack of Matty Ice was?

Mookie Betts Contentious Arbitration Cases

It is well documented that Mookie has gone to the wall with the Red Sox in arbitration thus far. It has been trumpeted by Tony Massarotti, among many others, that the Sox have risked completely alienating Betts by going to arbitration after 2017.

In that case, Betts asked for $10.5 Million, and the Red Sox countered with $7.5 Million. Up to that point in history, only Kris Bryant and Ryan Howard had gotten more than $10 Million in their first year of eligibility for arbitration. They agreed before an arbitration hearing, and both had Rookie Of The Year and NL MVPs under their belts at the time. The Red Sox were most definitely looking at Mookie and saying to themselves “Hey, he hasn’t won any major awards, why give him $10.5 Million?”

Arbitration hearings can be contentious. The player is promoting themselves, while the team is tearing them down. A funny thing happened in this case. The Arbitrator sided with Betts, noting his Silver Slugger in 2016, his Gold Gloves in 2016 and 2017, and his MVP runner up in 2016. Hey, not everyone has to compete against Mike Trout.

A New Deal

But then the news came across the wire on January 11th of this year: Mookie Betts had agreed to one year contract with the Red Sox for $20 Million. This after an MVP season in 2018, when he put to bed all the worries that 2016 was a one year aberration. After a historic 105 win season and 11-3 postseason on the road to a World Series Championship.

The fact that the Red Sox have approached him with long term offers that he has rejected don’t seem so real now. His deal of $20 Million sets a record for players with only 4 years in the big leagues, but it’s still a bargain.

Mike Trout is simply the sickest player on the planet. He finished 2017 leading the majors in WAR for the 5th time. He’s played 7 years full years. If he retired tomorrow he would arguably sail into the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot. That’s the guy Mookie beat out for the 2018 AL MVP. Guess who beat Trout out for 2018 WAR lead? That’s right. Mookie Betts. In 2018 he lead the league in batting average at .346, hit 32 homers, stole 30 bases, and won another gold glove, among many other things. Yes, $20 million is a bargain.

The Future

The bars of Gaga’s A Million Reasons ring out:

” I’ve got a hundred million reasons to walk away
But baby, I just need one good one to stay “

Sox fans have a reason to feel good. Because the Sox gave Mookie $20 Million reasons to stay, and by agreeing without going to the wall in arbitration they’ve opened the door to perhaps $300 Million more after 2019.

Is it Alex Cora and a culture of togetherness and support? Maybe it’s JD Martinez and his other teammates that he loves. Could be the joy of working in Fenway Park with all of us screaming his name. Whatever the reason, Mookie has opened the door to a long term deal.

Don’t screw this up Red Sox. And go Pats!

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The Closer Option Nobody is Talking About

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Add Adam Ottavino to the list of potential closers who are now elsewhere. Even worse, Ottavino is leaving Colorado and heading to the Bronx. The list is now significantly smaller than the one we began the offseason with. Along with Ottavino; Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera are all signed. Kimbrel is likely out of the Sox’ current plans, and the in-house closer candidates are limited. However, there is still a name on the free agent market that does entice me. The move is definitely one I could see the Red Sox making now.

A familiar face in the American League East, Brad Brach made his way into a playoff race last season with the Atlanta Braves. He had struggled in 2018 with Baltimore up to the point of the trade. However, he kicked it into another gear in ATL. His BB/9 came down an entire walk after his trade, as he seemed to find the control that made him dominant in years past.

Between 2013 and 2017, Brach averaged an ERA under three, with four of those five years coming in the gruelling American League East. He’s coming off a solid renaissance in Atlanta, but still won’t command a large salary at all. He’s a year younger than Ottavino, but he also doesn’t have one season as dominant as Ottavino’s 2018. However, the large body of work would say that Brach could be just as effective.

Ottavino has a career 3.68 ERA and a nice, round WHIP of 1.30 over 366 games. Brad Brach meanwhile has a 3.08 ERA and a WHIP of 1.27 over 424 games. Ottavino reportedly had tons of suitors, so why isn’t the market for Brach the same? Brach has better numbers, over a longer period of time as well. He also has postseason experience (1.80 ERA in 5 games) and has 30 saves over the last two seasons.

For whatever reason, he hasn’t had a tenth of the market that Ottavino had. The Red Sox should capitalize on that. A one or a two year deal with a mutual option would benefit both sides short-term. The money wouldn’t be much more than the 5.1 million he earned in 2018.

He’s a closer that costs around 10 million dollars, and has no long-term economic impacts on the payroll. That should be one that the Red Sox should have jumped all over months ago.

Potential Breakout Sox in 2019

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Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Nathan Eovaldi. Of all these guys fit the bill of players who broke out in one way or another in 2018 for Boston. Through this article, we’ll try and identify a few guys who could take the next step in their contributions for the Red Sox next year. Barring a major acquisition to bolster the backend of the bullpen, the Sox are likely done making moves. So, with the roster all but set, let’s take a look at some potential breakout players for the Red Sox in 2019.

Sam Travis

A former second rounder, Travis suffered a brutal knee injury a couple of years ago. He had potential to be the first basemen of the future, leading all of triple-A in RBIs before his ACL blew out. Sam Travis will turn 26 next season, and his chances to be an everyday major leaguer are looking slim. However, a role is still available for him. If one of Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce significantly drop off, or the Sox need some power off the bench, Travis could find his way to staying on the roster. Travis has always been a high walk/low strikeout type player, which gives him immediate as a bench player. Having a smart hitter available in a late game situation is something that every contending team could use, and Travis will have his chance to earn this role. For the time being, he’s going to need another strong March to crack the 25-man roster out of Spring Training.

Michael Chavis

Like Travis, Michael Chavis is a former top pick of the Sox. A first rounder just a few years ago, Chavis looked to be on the right trajectory to being an everyday player in the Major Leagues. However, a suspension to begin 2018 set everything back for Chavis. Now that he’s hopefully learned his lesson regarding Performance Enhancing Drugs, he can get back to the basics. He hit just under .300 in the minor last season, mostly with double-A Portland, but he eventually made his way to triple-A Pawtucket. A fantastic pure hitter, Chavis’ bat will earn him a call-up a some point in 2019.

The issue for Chavis is that he runs into someone we’ll discuss more later, Rafael Devers. Devers is the long-term starting third baseman for the Sox, and that’s Chavis’ natural position. If he were willing to be moved to either first, or to take reps at DH and second base, he could have a good chance at an early call-up in 2019. If he’s successful, he could be in the lineup everyday by 2020.

Durbin Feltman

There is one name that gets me incredibly excited, Durbin Feltman. Not just because he has a fantastic baseball name. Also because he has the chance to play a huge role on this team almost immediately. Feltman was the closer at TCU this time last year. Now he’s soaring through the ranks of the Boston minor league system. If Feltman can somehow even make his way onto the opening day roster, there’s a slim chance he begins as the closer.

However, we will see Feltman at some point this season for the Red Sox. It may not be right away, and it may not be in his comfortable position of the ninth inning, but we will get to see a taste of the possible future. Feltman is just 21 years old, and will likely begin the season in triple-A. This means that he will likely be pitching in big innings by the time he’s 22-23. If all goes well, he could be closing games in Boston for a long time. His potential call-up in 2019 should be one that makes Red Sox fans salivate.

Rafael Devers

The fourth and final name on this list, is the one of the four who’s a mainstay on the Red Sox roster. Rafael Devers has had an up and down start to his major league tenure. This makes people forget he’s only 22. Getting called up in the middle of a playoff race in 2017, Devers was able to hold his own offensively and earn the starting job.

He regressed at the plate in 2018, and his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. With that being said, Devers is very much due for a massive 2019. He hit better in the playoffs, and had some huge moments for the Sox in the World Series. Lots of fans have already written him off and labeled him as a bust. Me? I think that Devers is about to turn the corner and establish himself as a premier, power-hitting third basemen. If you haven’t already, it’s time to hop on the Devers hype train.

Honorable Mentions:

Bobby Poyner, Travis Lakins, Mike Shawaryn, Marco Hernandez, Blake Swihart, Tyler Thornburg, Trevor Kelley.

All of these men will play a role at some point in 2019 for the Red Sox, whether it be small or large. Each will also have a chance to earn themselves a spot in the bullpen or on the bench heading into 2020.

Taking a Look at the Remaining Options for a Closer

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Where do the Red Sox turn now for a closer? David Robertson, Joakim Soria, Joe Kelly and Andrew Miller were all candidates who signed elsewhere. Now, however, crunch time begins for the Red Sox, with relievers flying off the board left, right and center.

It’s not yet time for panic or concern, but the budding problem regarding the closer is the only pressing ‘issue’ remaining. Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce are back, so is Eduardo Nunez, with Joe Kelly and Ian Kinsler having gone their separate ways. So, let’s finish the offseason off smoothly by finding ourselves a closer, okay?

Browsing the Free Agent Market

As far as free agent candidates that remain, there’s only one guy that I love.

Adam Ottavino was a certified stud last year. He looked great even in a tough pitching environment in the altitude of Coors Field. His off-speed stuff is unquestionably filthy and dominant. I think if you give him a contract, it gives you the option to pitch him whenever you want, but it would make him the early favorite to close games.

Other attractive options come from a couple of other guys, who may not have been first choice closers for Boston, but after some in-depth analysis, might be worth a look. Both Brad Brach and Kelvin Herrera have pitched in big moments before, and have both been closers at times. Is their stuff a little diminished? Probably. However, a short-term deal for either of the two could provide them a veteran stopper at the end of the bullpen who is still good for 30+ saves.

Bring Craig Home?

Obviously, this section shouldn’t technically include Craig Kimbrel, but he was ours last year, so for argument’s sake let’s say he’s still an in-house option.

Kimbrel was thought to be long gone, his return a pipe dream, on the basis that he simply wanted too much money for too many years.

Now we sit here, first week of January, and Craig Kimbrel doesn’t have a deal. Not only that, we haven’t heard of much interest in the esteemed closer, especially not at his asking price. That breeds the questions, could Kimbrel come home? Who really wouldn’t want four more years of a sub-2.50 ERA?

People can say he’s been shaky. Or that his velocity has dropped. Or that he’s become a ‘heart attack closer’, but come on people. This guy is dominant, he is one of the best closers in the league, if not THE best. Who else would you take over Kimbrel?

Thornburg

Internal Options

The Sox have other internal options, such as Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier. Both of whom wouldn’t be my first choice for the ninth, but believe it or not I do actually think they’d both succeed. We need to see more from Brasier to prove last season wasn’t a fluke. Matt Barnes home run and control issues can at times be frustrating, but they are both cheap and viable candidates.

One final name I know people love to discuss is Durbin Feltman. Feltman was a third rounder just a year ago for the Sox, and he was one of the top college closers in the country coming out of TCU. He looked good in his stints in 2018, and will likely progress to at least Portland to begin the season, with Pawtucket and Boston surely on the horizon. He won’t start the season as the closer, but if whatever experiment the Red Sox use in the 9th doesn’t work AND Feltman progresses well, he could get this job a lot sooner than he originally thought.

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MLB Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

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The 2018 Baseball Winter Meetings have ended.  Here is a Red Sox focused roundup, and other related notes.

Rule Changes

Before the meetings, there was a lot of buzz about a pitch clock to speed up the game.  Once the meetings began it was all about The Shift.

https://twitter.com/megrowler/status/1073012029437296640

2018 resulted in a league wide .248 batting average, the lowest since 1972.  Singles are also in a five years decline.  Apparently, according to Jason Stark of the Athletic, the Commissioner, owners, batters, and pitchers are all for shift reform.

Of course there’s backlash.  People are decrying unintended consequences.  The debate rages on.

Eovaldi’s Back

The Red Sox led off the Winter Meetings by agreeing with Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years and $67.5 Million.  It seemed like a reasonable deal at the time.  Little did we know something like this would happen, seemingly within hours of the signing becoming official:

The Red Sox Crying Poor Mouth

https://twitter.com/SportsRaid365/status/1072984889681698817

Could this be true?

It seems incredible, with the Red Sox coming off a World Series title and raising ticket prices, that they need to clear salary space.  Dave Dombrowski threw some cold water on this story, but didn’t deny it.

A Red Sox Bullpen In Flux

Early this morning, new broke that Fightin’ Joe Kelly is going west.

Kelly was one of the stalwarts of a transformed bullpen, that turned into a bunch of vintage Ecks, in the 2018 playoffs.  With Kelly gone, could a reunion that seemed impossible happen?

It seems incredible, with reports of Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal for nine figures, that he could come back.  Apparently, the Red Sox are playing chicken and waiting for the price to come down.

Other than Kelly and Jeurys Familia, more on him in a minute, the reliever market has been quiet.  The Sox probably need two more relievers this off-season.

2019 Lineup Changes

Mookie has been known to resist moving out of the leadoff spot, and he can be stubborn, so Cora is planting the seed early.

It makes sense to move the more powerful Betts behind Benintendi.  More RBIs for Mookie, a two-three of Mookie and JD is pretty formidable.  This will lead to a right handed heavy 2-3-4, with Xander behind JD Martinez or vice versa.

Not every lineup can have Papi and Manny back to back.

Too Many Catchers

The Red Sox having one too many catchers has been an open question for some time.  Alex Cora spoke about the possibility of a trade at the Winter Meetings:

The Winter Meetings were anti-climatic in terms of moves being made by the Red Sox.  But there was one team that lead off the Meetings with a bang:

The Mets Making Moves

They started by acquiring Cano and Diaz from the Mariners.  They ended the meetings by bringing back Jeurys Familia.

https://twitter.com/TheCouchGMs/status/1073202870646923264

The Red Sox have the assets to almost perfectly match up with the Mets.  If the Red Sox are truly considering moving Jackie Bradley, would the Mets consider a left handed bat in the outfield?  The Red Sox have extra catchers.

Noah Syndergaard is rumored to be available.  Stay tuned.

 

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What Mike Napoli Meant To Boston

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His journey through Boston didn’t need to be a long one.  Mike Napoli had left his mark on the city.  The slugger announced his retirement this past weekend, and for many fans of the 2013 championship team, it called for a chance to reminisce. He only spent a little over two seasons with the team, but he was a very impactful, lovable character.  He’ll mainly be remembered for his bushy beard and clutch heroics throughout the 2013 season.   But most importantly, for helping bring a championship to a city that truly needed it, after their darkest time.

How The Era Of Napoli Came To Be

I recall being on vacation down in Florida in December of 2012.  I heard about a multitude of signings the team was in the process of making.  They needed some veteran presence alongside David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, so they made three moves.  All three of those moves occurred within three days, and all helped shaped the 2013 season.

Shane Victorino and Koji Uehara both signed.  They were probably the two most important players throughout the 2013 ALCS.  The third signing of the week was Mike Napoli. After some issues passing his physical, he eventually made his way to the Red Sox on a one year deal.  All three of these guys had been solid, but the team faced backlash, as all three were seen as ‘past their prime’.

I lauded the move at the time, how can you not want these likable, locker room presence-type guys? Of course, it paid off.  Napoli transitioned to first base smoothly for Boston, and ended up having some huge hits down the stretch, and into October.

Why He Was So Important

In April of 2013, the country was sent into a state of shock.  Terrorists had carried out an attack this close to home, right at the Boston Marathon.  For as many people this sent into a frenzy and a state of panic, it ended up bringing together a city.  Nobody will ever forget Big Papi’s speech before the first home game following the attacks:

It became a theme of the season.  The Boston Strong jersey hung in the dugout during every game.  The players were often discussing with the media and with each other how much they wanted this for the city and for the fans.  It all just felt like it was meant to be, and Mike Napoli was central to all of this.

When I think of this team, I remember how great the entire ‘beard’ thing was.  I remember Jonny Gomes showing up with a huge beard at Spring Training, and Napoli just loved it.  Eventually the whole team had beards.  The team had named them and marketed it.  That ended up being another huge theme of the season.

The Fun

Napoli and his bearded brothers brought a sense of passion everyday, to get it done for this city. However, they always did it while having fun.  Even when the team struggled, or fell behind against Detroit in the playoffs, this crew was there to pick each other up.  Just like they picked this city up, when the people needed it most.

Putting Nap’s Red Sox Career in Perspective

The clear cut, go-to Napoli Red Sox moment, is his seventh inning home run against Justin Verlander in game 3 of the ALCS.  It broke the tie and ended up being the only run in a 1-0 final. It ended up being a key factor in Boston’s grasp of the momentum in the series.

The stats aren’t flashy over the two and half seasons in Boston, and the way it ended in 2015 is unfortunate. The Sox were going nowhere, and unfortunately Napoli had begun to really fall off.  So they shipped him back to Texas.

He’ll never be forgotten for helping bring this city a title when they needed it.  Nobody will ever forget seeing his big beard laughing it up at first base.  Nobody had more fun than Nap, and nobody partied harder when the Sox won.  Most of all, nobody will ever forget this.  Possibly the greatest photo in the history of Boston Sports, shirtless Napoli patrolling Boston days after winning the World Series:

Thank you for everything Nap, it was a fun ride.

 

Paul Goldschmidt – Future Red Sox player?

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The winter is in full swing in the baseball world. We’ve seen blockbusters already happening. From James Paxton, to Jean Segura to Robinson Cano, big names have already been on the move everywhere. The Red Sox more than likely won’t make an acquisition of that proportion, but let’s dream for a bit shall we? Paul Goldschmidt is going to be huge splash, wherever he lands. He’s an MVP caliber player, who’s on a benchwarmers salary next season. Seeing as it would only be a one year rental for Goldschmidt, the Sox may shy away from wanting to move multiple young pieces. However, as far as need and fit are concerned, this would be a great move for Boston to make while the championship window is still open.

With Arizona likely on its way towards a rebuild, many of their big names may be finding other homes. Patrick Corbin will leave via free agency, as the Diamondbacks just don’t have the payroll to keep him. Another aspect hurting the payroll, is Zack Grienke’s contract. They will also look to move him this winter. Which brings us to Goldschmidt. Possibly the most intriguing trade chip in all of baseball. Even Giancarlo Stanton on the market last season, reigning MVP, didn’t offer the pure hitting approach which Goldschmidt does. A career .300 hitter, with an OPS of .930, Goldschmidt is a guy who brings instant pop the lineup, and leadership the locker room.

So if Goldschmidt is on his way out of the desert, could the Red Sox make a viable run at his services for the next year? It’s definitely possible. Even with first base platooned by Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland, this team clearly has a need for first baseman. Both Pearce and Moreland are solid players, who both played a big role in this year’s World Series. It’s hard not to get caught up in the lore of those two, and want to keep them in the lineup. The wise decision, would be to try and upgrade one position where they are subpar.

A Potential Package for Goldschmidt

Obviously, Goldschmidt would require a hefty haul to acquire. The Sox farm system is fairly depleted. However, with Goldschmidt essentially only coming over for one year, the return is worth parting with for Boston. It would have to start with Boston’s top hitting prospect Michael Chavis, and go from there. He is the most valuable asset the Red Sox have outside the major league club. He is also seen as a guy who could come up and hit .300 next season in the show. It would likely take Chavis and a couple other mid-level prospects to make the deal happen. A 14 million dollar tag on the incoming Goldschmidt still makes it possible for the Sox to function under the luxury tax.

Obviously, with a player of Paul’s caliber, there are many bidders. The Phillies, Astros, and Cardinals are just a handful of the teams that are in on Goldschmidt. All these teams are in positions to compete, and have deeper farm systems than Boston. This doesn’t make the deal impossible, it just means Dombrowski would have to act quick.

Do I see this deal happening? Probably not. Is it something that I would like to have happen? Yes, because frankly it should happen. It’s a low risk move that immediately improves the team, while still leaving money for other free agents like Joe Kelly or Nathan Eovaldi. He’s a power hitting first baseman, who is still athletic as ever and has pretty good wheels as far as people his size go. This would be a huge move that let’s the whole league know the Red Sox are still at the top.

What Role Can Dustin Pedroia Still Play?

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He’s two years removed from playing a full season and clearly his knee has been an issue. However, Dustin Pedroia still has a lot of skills and traits that can still be useful to this team. He’s still locked up for a fair amount of time. He’s going to make roughly 40 million dollars over the final three years of his contract. Can he still produce at a level that merits having that contract on the books? That is yet to be determined, but first and foremost, Dustin has to get healthy. The now 35-year-old second baseman is fortunate for many reasons. Mainly, with Kinsler departing, he faces almost no competition on the roster for his position. If he can get strong over the winter and be ready for the spring, he’ll have his chance to make an impact for Boston like he did back in 2016 and preceded by various season earlier.

Pedroia’s Achilles Heel

Unfortunately for Pedroia, he just can’t shake the pain in his left knee. Father Time isn’t on his side either, by any means, but the two-year-old knee injury has to be frustrating Dustin. In 2016 he hit .318 with an OPS of .825. Both of these numbers are exceptional, even all-star worthy. Then Manny Machado came along.Image result for machado pedroia gif

The collision between the two in April of 2017 appears to be what initially led to the injury for Pedroia. Machado’s late slide, that he claims as unintentional, took out the left leg of Dustin and frankly he has never been the same since. Pedroia has always been one that has struggled with the injury bug here and there. Nothing has ever compared to this, though.

Playing with the speedy, dirt-dog style that he does, his knees have already been taking a beating over the years. This has the potential to possibly sideline him for a good chunk of another season. Which would be similar to his 2018 where he played in only three games. Even worse, this has the potential to be it for Pedroia, at least with Boston.

Having paid him 16 million dollars last year for basically nothing, and 15 million in 17 for a half season isn’t good business. That equates to roughly 23 million in dead money, plus another 40 still on the Red Sox plate in the future. He’s going to have his chance in 2019 but he has to take it, or he could see himself out a similar door to Hanley Ramirez.

Can He Still Be Effective?

Like I said earlier, his last full season in 2016 was very good. Even in 2017, in limited action, he was a decent ballplayer at .293/.369/.760. IF, which is a big if, he can be ready to go for Opening Day AND stay healthy, the numbers seem like an attainable goal. It’s nothing special, and probably not worth the dollar amount he’s making, but it’s more than they got last year.

With Ian Kinsler highly unlikely to return, the door is wide open for Pedroia to take the reigns back. For him, it’ll be a transition to a different role, one as more of only a team leader and less as a contributor. When he could last year, he was always on the bench. He acted like an assistant coach at times for Alex Cora, something that likely had a huge influence on the team that won the championship.

If he can put up the aforementioned triple slash line from 2017, and continue to evolve into a mentor for the young guys like Rafael Devers and eventually Michael Chavis, he’ll be somewhat worth the money they’re paying him. As far as the team goes, they won 108 games and a World Series this year. Adding Pedroia back into the fold can only be a plus for this Red Sox team, and to me, it’s definitely an upgrade from Kinsler.

Could Joe Kelly be the next Red Sox Closer?

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“I still feel like that’s where I’m gonna be for the rest of my career.” Joe Kelly’s recent comments have made it clear how he feels about Boston. Are the Red Sox going to grant him his wish of being with the team the remainder of his career? With Eduardo Nunez and Steve Pearce both locking themselves in with Boston for 2019, the money is starting to go on the books. Craig Kimbrel returning is seeming more unlikely by the day. So, going forward, the champs are going to need someone to hold down the back end of the bullpen. And I’m not saying Joe Kelly is the answer, but he’s definitely an admirable candidate.

Joe Kelly has firmly planted himself in Red Sox lore. From fighting Tyler Austin and the Yankees in April to pitching tough as nails in October, to dropping the puck at a Bruins game in November. Kelly has been endearing himself to the fans all season long, myself included. How can you not love this guy and the attitude he brings?

Admittedly, Kelly did struggle in the dog days of summer. Every time he came in the game, he was allowing inherited runners to score or giving up runs left, right and center. If he struggles like that in the ninth inning of games, in Boston, the seat will get hot real quick. So is it worth paying Kelly a good chunk of change to close out games? Personally, I think it’s a safe bet. He obviously won’t command the 4-5 years at 70+ million that Kimbrel likely will. This is huge for a Red Sox team who’s trying to make other moves.

Joe Kelly Has The Boston Mentality

He’s never been short of confidence. Having this persona, allows him to be a guy with the guts to get the job done in the tough moments. Closing out games in one of the biggest sports markets isn’t easy. It requires these aforementioned guts to get the job done. The light shines brighter than in almost any other city in America. Putting money in the wrong place for the man to fill the job could be costly.

Despite the temporary summer struggles, I’ll take the grit of Joe Kelly any day of the week. If he comes back it would almost certainly be as the closer. Many other teams in the league could use an upgrade at the position and likely could also pay more than Boston can. Selling Kelly on having the closer’s role would likely be a huge factor in pleasing Joe, and keeping him with the Red Sox for the foreseeable future.

There are other options on the table via trade and via free agency. If the Red Sox choose to spend their money in other ways, I could see Matt Barnes also taking over the reins. Whatever ends up happening, if Joe Kelly does in Boston it’ll be as the closer. After October, I think that should be a comfortable feeling.

 

The Mookie Betts Scenario

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Almost two weeks have passed since the 2018 Boston Red Sox were finally crowned champions of the World. We now have to begin to look towards the future, both short term and long term. Short term, Mookie Betts isn’t going anywhere. His entry level contract runs through 2020, making him eligible to roam free following that season. At that time Betts will be looking ahead to his age 28 season. Which most see as or close to, the prime of one’s athletic ability.

He already has two MVP caliber level seasons in the books. So now is the time to lock up Mookie Betts with an offer he cannot deny. A lot has been made over the past couple winters that Betts isn’t overly eager to discuss a long term deal. The long term is what this Red Sox front office needs to be looking at. Making sure Mookie is here for the long haul, should be close to priority number one this winter.

The Length

Many people point to the Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera as reasons to avoid long term deals in today’s day and age. I would be quick to point to you that both of those players were over 30 when they took those contracts. Mookie Betts just turned 26, only 26! It seems obvious to me that if Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have earned 8+ year contracts, than so has Betts. Mookie’s resumé is just as strong, if not stronger than both members of this year’s illustrious free agent class. So why is a ten year deal out of the question for Betts? It shouldn’t be.

Ten years keeps Betts locked up through his age 36 season. This makes him happy as he’s set for basically his entire career, on one, big contract. The Red Sox also will enjoy the benefit of the first six years of that deal being MVP-type seasons from Betts. After that, his defense and his brilliant plate approach will keep him productive. Keeping him as a contributing veteran in the last few years of that deal.

Sox fans may be weary of shelling out a big deal, just because of the injury woes of Dustin Pedroia. If I’m ownership however, I know that Mookie may very likely want to test the waters come free agency time. I would think a ten year deal might change his mind.

The Cash

This topic is a little more wide open than the last. He’s going to get somewhere between eight and eleven years, that’s just a fact. When it comes to the money, and how much per year Betts is going to get, that is up for debate. Some would say the 300-350 million range is fair which is understandable. That is most likely what the Red Sox front office would be pursuing. However, once Harper and Machado secure their bag and get 300+ million, it’s going to inflate what Mookie Betts (and his agent) may think of him. If those guys can get that much, couldn’t Betts fetch 400+?

If I’m GM Dave Dombrowski, I’m starting at 400 million (at 40 a year) and I’m even willing to negotiate. Mookie was such a special player this year, and he’s been showing this culminating over the past few years. Not only have his regular season statistics been great. He’s one of the main guys in that locker room and among the fan favorites on this team. He was clutch in the playoffs and even had a home run to seal the clinching game.

With a new daughter having just arrived, I feel Betts could be allured by the offer of a big, juicy contract. Now is the time to sign Mookie before his value goes up even more. Had the Sox done this after 2016, they probably could’ve locked him up for 200 million or even less over a ten year span. So unless they want to keep waiting to pay more money, they better get on the phone this winter and lock up Mookie Betts.