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Red Sox Opening Day – A Wake Up Call

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Well that was a dud. Chris Sale was bad, the bullpen was bad, the bats only managed 4 runs in a 12-4 loss. But this isn’t about injury, and it’s not about punching holes in the teams’ talent. This was a wake up call for a team coming off arguably the most historic season in it’s 117 year history.

Chris Sale

Yesterday we pointed to Chris Sale’s velocity to see if he was on board with the plan to take it easy. Thanks to Brooks Baseball we can see that his average four seam fastball traveled at 92.9 MPH. That is exactly where he needs to be in order to both last the season without breaking down, and be effective. Tony Massarotti points out that Sale averaged 94 MPH on his four seamer last April, and he went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA then.

This is a new world for Sale. His whole life he has given 100% all the time. The Red Sox are asking him to dial it back so he’s in peak form for the playoffs. He’s being asked to be the Ace of the Boston Red Sox. He has a new contract. There is a lot on his shoulders. We know he gets it, he’s accountable, he’s passionate.

The Bullpen

The bullpen went 5 innings and gave up 4 earned runs. That’s not good. They’re not world beaters, but they’re also not a wheel of gutless bums. Coming into a Chris Sale game in the fourth inning down 7-2 is not normal.

Tyler Thornburg has a long way to go to receive Red Sox fans’ confidence, but despite what Dave Dombrowski says, he’s not being depended on to be a lock down guy. Alex Cora has sung Hector Velazquez’s praises, but he’s a mop up guy. He gave up 2 or more earned runs 10 times last year.

The only guy who was looked at as dependable in any way last year that pitched last night was Heath Hembree. He threw 17 pitches and got 2 outs, with a strike out and walk thrown in there. That’s an acceptable 7th inning guy, which is what he is being asked to be in the long run.

The Lineup

These guys can fall out of bed and score four runs against the Mariners’ pitching staff. That’s exactly what they did. They tested out a double steal, neat. Mookie went 3-4 and J.D. went 2-5, fabulous.

But where were the grind out at bats? The offense was listless.

The Outfield Defense

Good execution on throwing out Haniger at home by the team. But that was more routine and execution by Vazquez at home, that anything amazing on Mookie’s part.

And then there was the Mookie – Jackie almost debacle. Mookie called for the ball, and Jackie almost knocked it out of his glove by bumping into him in the outfield.

Wake Up Calls

This was all a lack of focus.

Chris Sale is human. His location was off. That falls into execution. Last season he decided to dial it up in June and July. He’s going to need to find that 2018 April for the full season.

It’s the major leagues. Batters can’t just roll out of bed and show up to win games. They need to focus on every pitch.

We haven’t seen the real bullpen weapons yet. We’ll have to wait and see how Barnes and Brasier and Brewer do. If they perform like Thorburg and Velazquez it will be a problem.

Outfielders need to be engaged. That means in every way, including communication. What happened with Bradley and Betts should not happen, no matter what stadium they’re in.

From here it feels like they all needed a wake up call to focus on the new season and leave 2018 behind. It’s a new world. They’re defending Champs coming off a historic season. A 12-4 lashing by the Seattle Mariners hopefully did the trick. Let’s see if Alex Cora and the team can come to the park with a renewed sense of the here and now tonight.

Image via NBCSN

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Red Sox Hot Stove And Related News

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The Red Sox Hot Stove has burned out.  Dave Dombrowski recently noted that the free-agent market has slowed down significantly the past two years.  He’s in favor of a free-agency deadline of some sort to spurn action.  Dave Dombrowski is right.  With that in mind, here is some recent interesting MLB news, and how it affects the Red Sox.

Red Sox Transactions

You are forgiven if unfamiliar with recent Red Sox transactions Gorkys Hernandez and Zach Putnam.

Hernandez is a 30 year old outfielder.  He played 142 games last year with the San Francisco Giants.  That was the most games he has played in a year in his career.  He hit .234 with a .676 OPS last year.

Putnam is a 31 year old reliever.  He saved 6 games with a 1.98 ERA four years ago for the White Sox.  Last year he got into 7 games for a total of 8.2 innings.  Yes, he had a 1.04 ERA, but his injuries have limited him to 32 games in relief over the past two years.

These guys are AAA roster filler.  They’re just as likely to spend the year in AAA, or be injured, as they are to make any kind of impact on the Red Sox this year.

That being said, at least the Sox signed Eovaldi, not exactly a pillar of consistency himself.  Here are some other teams making moves.

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey got a one-year 11 million, with $3 million incentives, from the Angels.  Lance Lynn signed a three-year $30 Million deal with the Rangers.  Harvey, formally the Dark Knight of the Mets, went 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA for the Reds last year.  Lance Lynn went 10-10 between the Twins and Yankees, with a 4.77 ERA.

There are some making the argument the Red Sox overpaid for Eovaldi based on these deals.  Neither Harvey nor Lynn had a three week stretch like Eovaldi showed in the Postseason.  Time will tell, but Harvey has looked cooked, and Lynn in decline.  Starting pitching is expensive.

The Runnin’ Royals

Remember when Billy Hamilton was the next big thing?  Way back in 2013 he was a highly touted prospect.  He got a cup of coffee with the Reds that year, and flashed a .902 OPS in 13 games.  People thought he would hit a ton of doubles, steal 80 bags a year, and be a gold glover.  Since then he has lead the the league in one thing: caught stealing.  He’s managed 277 steals, but a lowly .631 OPS, in his career so far.  And he’s not sniffing gold glove caliber defense.

All through the mid to late 90s, and the first leg of the this Century’s Red Sox Championship teams, the Royal’s Kauffman Stadium was a house of horrors for the Sox.  But considering the arguments for the Royals moves include phrases like “…may not produce much in the way of offense…”, it’s safe to say the Royals won’t be much of the threat to the Sox, or any other opponent, in 2019.

Oh Those Mets

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, with a name right out of The Sound Of Music, is showing why there was hope he could be had in a deal for Noah Syndergaard.  The Mets just gave Wilson Ramos a 2-year $19 million deal.  The 30 year old has two All Star nods, including last year.  But after being a stalwart for the Phillies and Nationals for several years, he’s been getting nicked up a little more each year.

He missed the All Star game last year with a hamstring injury from running the bases.  Catchers, for the most part, do not get better after 30.  Maybe if Christian Vazguez was 30 and injury prone, instead of 27 and coming off a great postseason, the Mets would’ve wanted him.  $9.5 million a year for Ramos is another head-scratching move.

A Dearth Of Big Name Deals

La Stella, Torreyes and Descalso.  Now there’s some big time talent, so exciting!  Can we get a Marwin Gonzalez deal at the very least?

How About A Former Big Name?

The artist formally known as Tulo is causing a stir.  This five-time All Star is so bad, the Blue Jays paid $38 million to release him last week.  That’s Pablo ‘Panda’ Sandoval territory.  Now a third of all teams are clambering to overpay him.

Let’s a hope an AL East team grabs him, so Red Sox pitching can rack up more strikeouts.

Hope, In This Season Of Hope

The tails of Yasiel Puig and Rusney Castillo, and all the Cuban defectors, are harrowing stories of heartbreak and despair.  Three cheers for MLB, trying to make this a better process.

Can You Imagine This In The Winter Of 2004?

I’m pretty sure the excitement was at a Fever Pitch in the early winter of 2004.  This team just put down a historic run to a World Championship.  The Red Sox raised ticket prices in advance of putting them on sale.  Of course, marketing is important for any organization.  But to not be mostly sold out at this point is a part of the problem Dave Dombrowski pointed out.  There is a distinct lack of buzz out there.

How To Be A Great Friend

https://twitter.com/RockWalkLondon/status/1074914135048159233

Happy belated Birthday to Keith Richards, who recently turned 75.  He showed us all how to stand up for our friends.

May we all be there for each other in the coming year.

 

Follow on Twitter @bostonsportSAHD

Get Noah Syndergaard On The Red Sox

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The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade.  Nathan Eovaldi is back!  Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike.  Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston.  A quick reminder:

The Mets

The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano.  They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal.  He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest.  Those guys are often inconsistent.  They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts.  Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years.  But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday.  His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.

When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade.  And why wouldn’t they?  Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years.  His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.

But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system.  Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get.  Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.

The Padres

The most recent rumor from the MLB Network was a package of Manny Margot, Austin Hedges, and Mackenzie Gore.

Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder.  In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS.  In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS.  Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.

Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else.  In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.

Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts.  He also walks a lot of people.  Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.

The Rockies

The Rockies have a lot of young pitching.  It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense.  This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air.  The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado.  Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base.  He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.

So what does this mean?  The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching.  More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters.  But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have.  The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.

The Red Sox

Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.

Margot is 24, Hedges is 26.  Devers is still the tender age of 22.  This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year.  Furthermore, Devers  hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.

That’s special.  But he’s no Tony Conigliaro.  The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.

Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent.  That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.

What’s more, the Mets need a catcher.  The Red Sox have a plethora.  Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal.  But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead.  A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.

If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some.  The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game.  It would take less top young talent than some other teams.

Eovaldi Frees Things Up

And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to.  This gives the Red Sox more options.  They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.

Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch

At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make.  Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time.  Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range.  All three of those other guys will cost more than that.

Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out.  He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million.   With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.

Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration.  He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million.  If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out.  Thor has three years of control left in arbitration.  He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.

If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.

Time To Act

There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto.  They are itching to trade.  The competition for Syndergaard is falling away.  The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems.  Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.

Red Sox Offseason Lacking Fireworks…And That’s Okay

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I was making the rounds on the Red Sox news circuit yesterday when I came to a sudden realization. This is going to be a boring offseason.

Granted, it’s still incredibly early on. The non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players (the first major offseason date) is later tonight at 8 pm ET. The Winter Meetings don’t kick off until December 9th. MLB’s hot stove has been relatively cool thus far, outside of a handful of moves ranging from “Indifferent Shrug” to “Okay, That’s Interesting”. Both New York teams have led the charge by shopping at the Great Seattle Mariners Fire Sale of 2018. The Yankees acquired lefty James Paxton on November 20. Meanwhile, the Mets traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox, for their part, haven’t really been involved in much of the early action. There haven’t been any rumors of that changing any time soon.

That makes total sense for a 108-win champion coming off of the best season in franchise history. Boston will likely be returning most of the core group that led 2018’s title run. It has already brought back World Series MVP Steve Pearce on a team friendly 1-year deal and restructured/extended Alex Cora’s current deal through 2021. Both moves were no-brainers, and the Sox moved quickly to tie up those loose ends. The Red Sox also took a flyer on 25-year-old reliever Colten Brewer. Beyond that, the only real questions with this roster involve Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, and which of their homegrown core they can lock up long-term.

It’s a change of pace from last year’s eons-long pursuit of JD Martinez. It’s also a far cry from splashy offseasons like 2014 and 2015. I didn’t hear any reports of Dave Dombrowski sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner with Madison Bumgarner like Theo Epstein did with Curt Schilling in 2003. Trying to decide which sub-70 OPS+ catcher to move on isn’t a fun conversation to have on sports talk radio. The minutiae of sussing out a 6th or 7th reliever don’t really move the needle for many fans. There is some intrigue around second base and Dustin Pedroia’s status moving forward. And, while I personally think first base is an area to upgrade, the team seems happy with their Peace/Mitch Moreland platoon.

Winter can be fickle, and Dombrowski has never been shy about making blockbusters happen. Standing pat after a season where nearly everything went right can be risky, too. However, should the Sox choose to mostly shuffle some minor pieces around while keeping most of a championship roster intact, it will be hard to complain. This team doesn’t feel quite as one-hit-wonder-y as 2013, and doesn’t have as many players set to depart as 2004. The best comparison is 2007. That offseason, a strong mix of young, homegrown talent and veteran stars made it easy to roll things over to 2008.

Besides, next offseason looms large. Some key players that are up for extensions in 2019: Moreland, Martinez (player option) Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley become unrestricted free agents the following year. It may be best for Boston to keep its books as clean as possible, with that in mind. That is unless they plan on acquiring a player with the intent to replace one of those guys over the long term.

As is always the case, we’ll have no choice to wait and see what happens. But if push comes to shove, I’m fine if the only offseason addition the Red Sox make is another World Series trophy to their display case.

Red Sox Trade Potential 2019: Rafael Devers For Kris Bryant

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A shock-wave spread across the MLB Hot Stove when Buster Olney reported that the Chicago Cubs could trade Kris Bryant.  The Red Sox minor league system is bare, but Rafael Devers is young, cheap, talented, and a powerful trade chip.  Would a Rafael Devers Kris Bryant swap make sense?

Rafael Devers

Devers can be seen as a Red Sox wunderkind.  He will only be 22 years old at the start of 2019 season.  At that tender age, his accomplishments are many.  Here are just a few:

  • His Baseball Reference page compares him at a similar age to Willie Mays and Cal Ripken Jr.
  • He’s the youngest Red Sox player to hit a Home Run since Tony Conigliaro in 1965.
  • He has a .884 OPS in the postseason including 3 Home Runs and 14 RBI in 15 games.

Because of these, and many other great performances, most consider him an untouchable.  And for the vast majority of all the talent in all the world, he is.

But what if he could be the centerpiece, or only piece, in a trade for one of the best young players in all of baseball?

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant himself is seen as a Chicago Cubs wunderkind.  At the tender age of 26, he has already been a Rookie Of The Year, an NL MVP, and linchpin of a 2016 World Series Championship for the Cubbies.

Devers may be full of potential, but Bryant is a monster and has proved it over a much larger sample.  Bryant is also playing much better defense than Devers at third base.

So why would the Cubs trade him?  Because many of the same concerns the Red Sox have had with Mookie Betts.  Bryant has refused to talk long-term extension with the Cubs.

Now, Theo Epstein, the President of the Cubs, downplayed the possibility of trading Bryant.  But what do we expect him to say?  If there is even a possibility, this could be an incredible opportunity.

In the spring of 2017, the Chicago Cubs visited Fenway Park for a 3 game series.  It was a brief glimpse of the kind of, pardon the term, damage Bryant could do.  In those 3 games, he hit 2 Home Runs, 2 Doubles, and had a 1.429 OPS.

Red Sox Payroll Concerns 2020

At the end of the 2019 season, the Red Sox have a number of payroll concerns.  Among them are trying to sign Mookie Betts to a long-term deal, Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts becoming free agents, and JD Martinez having an opt-out in his contract.

Having Kris Bryant, a superstar, on the team at a lower number through 2021, would provide some flexibility for the Sox in the short term.  And Bryant is a much better bet to invest in than Rafael Devers.  Bryant is simply a better player.

Because of Rafael Devers’ postseason success, and tantalizing thoughts of Willy Mays and a young and healthy Tony C, he could be a one for one trade chip for Kris Bryant.  And hey, it’s just the kind of trade Dave Dombrowski is known for.

Red Sox Shut Down Tyler Thornburg

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Red Sox manager Alex Cora made an unsurprising announcement earlier this week when he revealed that reliever Tyler Thornburg would be shut down for the remainder of 2018.

There were two glaring reasons for this call by Cora. First, Thornburg’s recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome is ongoing. That injury caused him to miss all of 2017 and much of 2018. While the 29 year-old righty made progress this season, his manager noted he was beginning to fatigue down the stretch.

“There’s no need to push him hard,” Cora told reporters prior to Wednesday’s doubleheader vs. Baltimore. Which, of course, makes perfect sense given the severity of TOS.

However, if Thornburg had performed at a high level in his return to the Boston bullpen mix, would Cora be singing the same tune?

The second obvious reason for giving Thornburg the rest of the autumn off renders that question moot. Thornburg simply hasn’t been effective this season. He posted a 5.63 ERA over 24 innings in 25 appearances, with unflattering peripherals. His last outing was on Sept. 14th, in which he allowed three runs in 2/3rds of an inning (and two HR).

Thornburg’s velocity never really bounced back to 2016 levels, either. Per Brooks Baseball, Thornburg’s average fastball velocity was two mph slower than his last year in Milwaukee.

Mix all of that together, and the smart move was clearly to shut down Thornburg for the year. You won’t get any qualms from me there. However, it does sting to have to mark up yet another effectively lost season for one of Dave Dombrowski’s premier bullpen acquisitions, especially with so many questions swirling about this group of relievers.

The Red Sox acquired Thornburg via trade from the Brewers in December 2016. At the time, the move made total sense. Outgoing Travis Shaw had proven to be a solid, yet unspectacular corner infield option. And, after striking out on Carson Smith Boston felt that another quality reliever was the missing piece to October success.

To his credit, Thornburg was coming off of an excellent 2016. He posted a 2.67 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 13 saves as the Brewers set-up man in front of closer Jeremy Jeffress. The hope was to combine Thornburg with Smith, to provide a formidable 7th-8th inning duo come playoff time.

Unfortunately for the Sox, things went off of the rails almost immediately. Thornburg injured his shoulder that spring, which led to a war of words between him and the front office. Thornburg claimed that a new fitness program implemented by the Red Sox training staff caused the injury, which ruffled more than a few feathers around the organization. That shoulder fatigue/soreness only worsened as the year went along. The right-hander did not throw a pitch for the Sox in 2017.

Not helping matters in all of this: Shaw has turned into a strong infield power bat for the Brew Crew. In 293 games across two seasons, Shaw has slashed .258/.348/.497 with 62 HR and a 120 OPS+. He’s amassed 8.1 bWAR over that span, compared to Thornburg’s -0.1 bWAR. Any way you slice it, the trade has been a huge win for Milwaukee, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Red Sox.

Thornburg underwent surgery in June, after his shoulder pain continued into 2018. He was finally able to make his Red Sox debut on July 6th. While this season has been a step in the right direction, it hasn’t been enough to earn him a spot on the playoff roster.

The plan is that a full, proper offseason will go a long way toward’s Thornburg’s continued recovery, and ensure he’ll be a contributing member of next season’s roster. Although, as the Red Sox have learned: people plan, and the Baseball Gods laugh.

The Red Sox Bullpen Feels Shaky. Does it Matter?

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Baseball’s waiver trade deadline passed yesterday, without so much as a peep from the top team in the majors. Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox chose to roll with the guys in the clubhouse, despite two other AL rivals (New York and Cleveland) making moves to bring in former MVPs and despite calls across their fan base to improve the bullpen.

Those desperate cries have rang out all season long. As it turns out, fans aren’t feeling too comfortable at the thought of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, or Heath Hembree entering the 8th inning of a Game 7. Dombrowski’s reputation of building star-studded teams without reliable relievers doesn’t help matters either.

But just how shaky is Boston’s ‘pen? Is having a group of dominant relievers really so important in October? Let’s do a bit of digging to find out.

Red Sox Bullpen: Actually Good?

Photo Credit: AP Photo / Charles Krupa

For starters, the idea that the Red Sox bullpen has struggled this season is more perception than reality. There may not be a ton of big names and former closers like there are with the Yankees and Indians. That being said- the Sox’s relievers have generally been up to the task.

Boston currently ranks 6th in the majors in reliever ERA this season (4th in the AL). The five teams ahead of them also happen to be teams currently slated for a playoff spot. The aforementioned Indians, despite trading for the Padres’ Brad Hand earlier this summer and having Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in the mix, rank 26th in the league in bullpen ERA.

The Sox also rate favorably in FIP (5th in the majors, 3rd amongst playoff teams). Their bullpen’s 4.5 fWAR ranks 7th in baseball, even though their relievers have thrown only 461 innings this season (19th most). In other words, Boston’s ‘pen has provided enough value to rank in the top 25% of teams, despite appearing in fewer innings than every team ahead of them for the exception of Houston.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they’ve been perfect. Far from it in fact. Two troubling peripherals: the Red Sox rank 18th in reliever BB/9 (3.65) and 4th in strand rate (78.4%). Giving up free passes in high-leverage situations is playing with fire, especially in October. A high strand rate means that Boston has done well at putting out those fires. But, that luck can turn in a hurry.

Bullpen Matters

CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 12: Joe Kelly #56 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the third inning of the game against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on August 12, 2014 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox bullpen has been overall perfectly acceptable, if not dominant. The good news? Having a great regular season bullpen isn’t necessarily a predictor for postseason success, especially if you excel in other areas like Boston does.

The defending World Series champion Astros ranked 17th in baseball with a 4.27 bullpen ERA last year, yet still won 101 games. That was thanks in large part to their league-leading offense and strong starting pitching. The team they beat for the title last year, the Dodgers, ranked 4th in bullpen ERA. Both finished behind the Red Sox, whose 3.15 reliever ERA was good for 2nd best in baseball.

Here’s where the other previous six pennant winners ranked in bullpen ERA:

2016: Cubs 8th, Indians 4th

2015: Royals 2nd, Mets 11th

2014: Giants 5th, Royals 10th

Of the last eight World Series participants, four finished in the top five. Only last year’s Astros finished outside of the top half of the league. The Royals, who started this craze with their three-headed monster of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland, finished 2nd in 2015. Their bullpen effectively functioned as the team’s greatest asset, compensating for a weak rotation and unconventional lineup. It was essentially the inverse of what the ’17 Astros lineup did for their relievers.

It’s perfectly fair to critique Dombrowski for not finding a better option at either trade deadline. It certainly would have been nice to supplement Craig Kimbrel at the end of games. Ultimately, it might not matter if the Red Sox bullpen is merely above average instead of dominant. Having a killer set of relievers helps come playoff time. However, it’s not necessarily more important than timely hitting, strong starting pitching, and major contributions from stars.

Thus far, it appears Red Sox management is betting on that being the case.

Comparing The 2003 Red Sox to The 2018 Red Sox

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While nearly 15 years has separated these two teams, there are a lot of similarities between them. With what appears to be two different ages of baseball, what can we take away from the ages?

The opening day lineups.

In 2003, The opening day lineup looked like this. 1. Johnny Damon CF, 2. Todd Walker 2B, 3. Nomar Garciaparra SS, 4. Manny Ramirez LF, 5. Kevin Millar 1B, 6. Shea Hillenbrand 3B, 7. Jeremy Giambi DH, 8. Trot Nixon RF, 9. Jason Varitek C Starting Pitcher Pedro Martinez.

This lineup had it all.  They had key veteran players to build around. They had speed, raw power, and most of all talent. This team was poised to make a deep October run until the rival Yankees ended it on a sour note. The 2004 team would eventually reverse the 86 year long drought. After that “The Curse of The Great Bambino” was over.

This season, the Opening Day lineup consisted of 1. Mookie Betts RF, 2. Andrew Benintendi LF, 3. Hanley Ramirez 1B ( not on the team anymore.) 4. J.D Martinez DH, 5. Xander Bogaerts SS, 6. Rafael Devers 3B, 7. Eduardo Nunez 2B, 8. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF, 9. Christian Vazquez C. Starting Pitcher Chris Sale. 

The Similarities.

This team also has raw power and speed. Their ace Chris Sale is most comparable to Pedro Martinez in his intensity and competitiveness. Both teams had a multitude of different ways to scare opponents offensively.

By the numbers: Both teams led the league in runs batted in, hits, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits. Both teams were leading their division up to this point in the season (2018 season isn’t 100% over yet). These teams were offensive power houses that American League teams were scared to pitch against.

Both teams provided some serious defense as well. It wasn’t always about amazing run support. The pair of teams had a stud patrolling in right field (2018 Betts, 2003 Nixon). Both teams had a perennial shortstop (Bogaerts, Garciaparra). Both teams had a highly regarded designated hitter (Martinez, Giambi). Finally, both teams made a very questionable move during the season (2018 cutting Hanley, 2003 signing David Ortiz).

In both cases they had their first seasons with an incredible duo. After the signing of David Ortiz to pair with Ramirez the tandem would go on to ravage pitchers for years. Most would regard the two as the best 3 and 4 hitter combo of all time. In 2018, the J.D and Mookie combo offers hope of a new duo equal to that of the deadly 2003 pair. Offering up a different approach to the game, this duo can hit, work the count, and launch home runs with the best of them.

Some differences that should be highlighted.

One of the biggest differences were the managers. Grady little led the team in 2003. After a controversial ending to their season he was heavily blamed for not cruising by the Yankees. This led to his timely firing by Theo Epstein and company. Which led to the hiring of legendary manager Terry Francona.

In 2018 the Red Sox are led by Alex Cora, the former bench coach of the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros. He is way ahead of his time. In implementing his system, his bench coaches and assistants utilize new forms of measurements in the game. Using new revelations such as: launch angle, statcast, war, and other forms of saber metrics. He is one of the main reasons why this 2018 team is on the verge of making history.

Comparing managers and General managers.

As for the general managers, they too take separate approaches. Theo was a free agent build type of guy, along with an incredible farm system. That’s how he also made the Chicago Cubs a world series champion. He is also one of the youngest general managers to win a World Series, as well.

On the other hand, Dave Dombrowski also has a winning approach. Dombrowski arrived after the departure of former GM Ben Cherington. He built the franchise into a winning culture in a matter of two seasons. While most people note the demolition of the farm system, it is slowly building itself back up with great draft additions such as Tristan Casas. Dave has also won a title with the then Florida Marlins, who now are called the Miami Marlins.

Even the fact that it seems like a different era of baseball is very prevalent. Pitchers are throwing harder, while also not staying in the game as long as they used to. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Greg Maddox were pitching a lot more innings a season.

The MLB commissioner office seems like it is always trying to speed up the game, while not being as concerned with more pressing matters such as PEDs and off the field incidents. As long as the commissioner can stay focused on the most important matters the sport can continue to grow and be more fun for generations to come.

Conclusion.

While both teams are strikingly similar, the differences stand out well. The 2018 team is more aggressive on the base paths, and are much faster. That comes with the evolution of the game. This team is also a lot younger than Red Sox teams of years past. This 2018 team looks very hungry, but hopefully the outcome will differ from the fate of the 2003 team.

While the 2018 season is still heating up, how it will be written among the other Red Sox teams will soon come into fruition. Keep it here for the best coverage of all your favorite Boston teams and players. Only at Bostonsportsextra.com

Dave Dombrowski Has Killed The Farm System

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With only two prospects in the top 100, Dave’s win now philosophy has killed the backup plan If we cannot resign all these players.

Yes, Dave Dombrowski has brought in some serious talent to Boston over the years, but we simply cannot resign them all. Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel has done astonishingly well thus far, but what about the Drew Pomeranz, Carson Smith, and Tyler Thornburg? While Losing big name prospects such as: Anderson Espinoza, Travis Shaw, Manuel Margot, and Mauricio Dubon.

Not saying these trades weren’t beneficial, but with the cap room looking tight already, it is going to be a challenge to resign these guys. With guys already in line to ink up max deals. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Xander Bogaerts should all command huge contracts, which will spike up the luxury tax for sure. It makes it harder for the team to compete in free agency for guys like: Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado exclusively.

The farm system now ranks 15th in all of baseball. With Jason Groome ( Tommy john) and Micheal Chavis ( 80 game suspension) as the only two guys in the top 100. Leaving scraps for developed prospects. Guys like Tanner Houck, Trey Ball, and Josh Ockimey aren’t eye popping players yet. They need to restock the farm system in some way via trade or an over abundance of draft picks in coming years.

While nobody would expect a dominant regular season from the likes of Ben Cherington and John Farrell respectfully, Alex Cora has been a great compliment to dealing Dave. While we wait and watch another trade deadline come and pass, we can only imagine what him and the front office has in store.

What will the legacy be after it’s all said and done? Maybe we will find out about Hanley Ramirez too. Until then, we let the cards fold as they be.

Follow me on twitter! @porchie16

W2W4: Post All-Star Break Edition (@greg_habeeb)

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We’ve officially entered the sports abyss. You know, that 48-hour black hole following the MLB All-Star Game where there are no sports to be found. The World Cup is over. There are no baseball games in sight. NFL training camp is still a ways off. Hell, even the NBA’s Summer League has concluded.

In these dire times, all we can do is lock ourselves in our rooms, and look ahead to what the second half of the Major League season might bring.

Red Sox fans are surely hoping for more of the same. Boston won an MLB record 68 games prior to the break, and hold a 4.5 game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. There should be plenty of intrigue over the season’s final two and a half months. Here are a few key themes for Sox fans to keep an eye on for 2018’s stretch run:

Will Dave Dombrowski Make a Move?

The trade deadline is looming. The Red Sox may be on pace for 112 wins, but they have their share of holes. Three starting pitchers (Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright, and Eduardo Rodriguez) are on the disabled list. The bullpen, beyond Craig Kimbrel, is “good enough to get by” at best and “heart-attack inducing” the rest of the time. 2nd and 3rd base have been well below average offensively, and a train-wreck defensively (at least when Rafael Devers and Eduardo Nunez have been in the lineup). The catcher position has been underwhelming as well, though the Sox aren’t alone there.

In short, there’s reason to believe that Boston may try to make an upgrade over the next couple of weeks. The Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in a high-caliber reliever. The Orioles’ Zach Britton could be on the table, and is one big name to watch. Boston has also shown interest in former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi. An augmentation to the pitching staff seems most likely, though whether it’s a major get like Britton or a stopgap solution like Eovaldi remains to be seen. However, don’t sleep on a boost to the lineup as well (The Royals’ Mike Moustakas or Whit Merrifield, anyone?). When you have a first half like the Red Sox did, a big swing is almost always in the works.

Dr. Chris vs. Mr. Sale

The splits are staggering. By almost every metric, Chris Sale is worse in the second half of the season than he is in the first half. For his career, Sale is 69-26 with a 2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, and 32-36 with a 3.28 ERA after it. Last year was no different; after a dominant first half, he showed signs of mortality down the stretch. Everything came to a head in the postseason, when he allowed 9 runs on 13 hits in 9.2 innings over two appearances versus Houston.

Sale will once again be coming off a stellar first half (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 13.1 K/9). We’ll see if he can keep it rolling for the full 162 plus postseason, assuming the Sox make it that far.

Will Jackie Bradley Jr. Get Hot?

JBJ has been nothing short of frustrating this season at the dish. His .210/.297/.345 slash line doesn’t inspire much confidence. Neither does his less-than-robust 73 OPS+. Fortunately for Bradley, his typically excellent defense has managed to keep him in the lineup more often than not.

There are signs that a patented Bradley Jr. hot streak could be around the corner. His .265 BAPIP is its lowest since 2013, despite a career best 38.8 hard-hit percentage (and a career low 9.7 soft-hit percentage). JBJ also showed signs of life towards the end of the first half. In 18 games since June 24th, Bradley is hitting .323//377/.548 with a couple of HR and 15 RBI to boot.

JBJ truly just needs to be mediocre at the plate in order to justify his prescence in the lineup with the way he mans centerfield. However, he’s also capable of going on extreme hot streaks that can buoy an entire offense for a month. Assuming he times that streak right, it could determine the AL East race.

Can Mookie Betts Stay Hot?

Mike Trout is already an all-time great, and the best player in baseball. But Betts has been the top dog this season from the jump. His monster first half (.359/.448/.691 with 23 HR, 18 SB, and a 200 OPS+) has made him the clear AL MVP favorite so far. It has also almost completely erased an underwhelming 2017 season. Check this out:

2016: 158 G, 730 PA, .318/.363/.534, 31 HR, 26 SB, 133 OPS+

2017-18: 231 G, 1067 PA, .295/.379/.534, 33 HR/162, 31 SB/162, 137 OPS+

It truly does feel as though this season is a correction for 2017, and combining both puts him right in line with 2016’s MVP runner-up campaign. The Sox need him to keep that pace, and stay locked in. While the top 5 of the lineup is as formidable of a group as any (Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland), the bottom part has been suspect to say the least. Boston can’t afford much of a drop-off from their stars, especially Betts.

There’s plenty more to keep an eye on as the Red Sox make their way through the dog days of summer into the fall, of course. But don’t be surprised if these key points loom large through September and October.