Tag Archives: Paul Goldschmidt

BSE Baseball Writers MLB Awards Predictions

American League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu

Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi

John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman

Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit

Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.

Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.

National League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar

Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.

Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.

American League Cy Young

Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez

Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber

John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger

Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.

Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.

Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?

National League Cy Young

Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo

Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler

John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland

Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray

Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.

“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.

American League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.

National League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso

Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice. Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel

Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.

Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.

American League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash

Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora

Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?

National League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell

John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black

Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.

Gabe Kapler and the Phillies are trending up.

Featured picture taken from CBS Philly

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

Get Noah Syndergaard On The Red Sox

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The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Nathan Eovaldi is back! Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike. Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston. A quick reminder:

So…..Fenway was a sureal ballpark to pitch in…..from a childhood dream perspective……As visiting pitcher on a team and city I love…..#dontfreakout

— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) September 15, 2018

The Mets

The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano. They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal. He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. Those guys are often inconsistent. They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts. Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years. But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday. His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.

When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade. And why wouldn’t they? Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years. His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.

But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system. Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get. Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.

The Padres

The most recent rumor from the MLB Network was a package of Manny Margot, Austin Hedges, and Mackenzie Gore.

Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder. In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS. In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS. Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.

Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else. In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.

Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts. He also walks a lot of people. Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.

The Rockies

The Rockies have a lot of young pitching. It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense. This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air. The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado. Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base. He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.

So what does this mean? The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching. More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters. But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have. The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.

The Red Sox

Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.

Margot is 24, Hedges is 26. Devers is still the tender age of 22. This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year. Furthermore, Devers hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.

That’s special. But he’s no Tony Conigliaro. The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.

Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent. That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.

What’s more, the Mets need a catcher. The Red Sox have a plethora. Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal. But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead. A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.

If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some. The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game. It would take less top young talent than some other teams.

Eovaldi Frees Things Up

And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to. This gives the Red Sox more options. They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.

Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch

At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make. Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time. Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range. All three of those other guys will cost more than that.

Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out. He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million. With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.

Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration. He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million. If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out. Thor has three years of control left in arbitration. He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.

If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.

Time To Act

There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto. They are itching to trade. The competition for Syndergaard is falling away. The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems. Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.

The Top First Basemen in Baseball

1. Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is about as steady as they come. Year in, year out, he puts up big numbers without as much publicity as the game’s top stars. Make no mistake, he is one of the top stars in the game. Goldy, as he is affectionately called, hasn’t batted below .297 since 2012 and has eclipsed 30 home runs three times during that span. 2013 was his true breakout season, leading the league with 36 home runs, 125 RBI and a .952 OPS. Two years later he was even better, batting .321 with 33 home runs and a career high 1.005 OPS. In a stat that adjusts for ballpark and other factors, Goldschmidt also posted a career best 168 OPS+. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote for the second time in three years. Last season he finished third in the vote after hitting 36 home runs.

Goldschmidt is also perhaps the best baserunner amongst first basemen. He stole 18 bags for the second time in his career last season. The year before he had stolen a career high 32 bases! Goldschmidt isn’t fast, he is just adept at getting big leads and reading a pitcher. According to Mike Petriello of MLB.com, Goldschmidt has an average lead of nearly 15 feet when he attempts to steal a base. The average lead is less than 12 feet. In the field, Goldschmidt has a career .996 fielding percentage and has won 3 Gold Gloves. He is a very well-rounded player and my choice for the best first baseman in baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman

Freeman has always been a good player, but his game has gone to new heights the past two years. Over his first five seasons, Freeman was a .286 hitter and averaged 21 home runs per season with an .835 OPS. The beginning of 2016 was much the same, but starting in June, he changed his hitting approach. His adjustments helped him see the ball longer and to stay on the pitch. Since, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball.

Freeman wound up hitting .302 with 34 homers and a .968 OPS that season. This past year, despite missing time with an injury, Freeman hit .307 with 28 home runs and a career high .989 OPS. The OPS was the second highest among first basemen in the Major Leagues. This all led to a 4.5 WAR despite only accumulating 440 at-bats. Still just 28 years old, there is no reason Freeman shouldn’t continue this stellar play for years to come.

3. Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has overcome a lot to get where he is now. A top prospect with the Red Sox, Rizzo had to conquer cancer at the age of 18. He was traded to San Diego and did not find immediate Major League success. Reacquired by Theo Epstein, the man who initially brought him to Boston, Rizzo started showing why he was a big prospect. For four seasons now he has been one of the better first basemen in the league.

Over these past four seasons, Rizzo has hit over 30 home runs in each season. During that time he has batted .282 with a .387/.522/.910 triple slash. There haven’t been many more consistent power threats in the game during that span. At 28 years old, Rizzo is part of the same generation as Goldschmidt and Freeman and should be hitting baseballs over the wall for plenty of years to come.

Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run home run in the 4th inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2017. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel)

4. Cody Bellinger

At just 22 years old last year, Bellinger led all first baseman in home runs with 39. His .933 OPS placed 4th at the position while his .581 slugging percentage was second to Freddie Freeman. At such a young age, Bellinger should have more years to offer than those above him on this list, but they are all young enough they should produce well for an entire length of a contract. I also trust the ones above him to perform more consistently. Bellinger was a top prospect, and I have no doubt he will keep performing, but I’d like to see more before elevating him above established superstars.

Bellinger has revamped his swing in recent years and gets incredible lift on the ball, so the power is likely to stay. Whereas he used to be “stiff” at the plate, Dodgers coaches worked with him through the minors to change his style. Bellinger went from hitting four home runs over 377 at-bats in 2013 and 2014, to hitting 30 homers in 2015. The one downside, if any, is that he strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t hit for as high an average as those above him. At just 22, I can see him improve that area of his game without sacrificing a great deal of power.

5. Joey Votto

As I said in the opening, Votto is arguably the best first baseman in the league. However, he is 34 years old. The guys above him likely have six or more years of star play left, Votto might have two or three before he starts to decline. Still, I will take two or three years of superstar play and then a couple more years of decent play over just good play for six years.

In Votto’s first full season he batted .297. In 2014, he missed half the season with injury and only batted .255. He has batted above .300 all of the other nine seasons in his career. He has led the league in on-base percentage six times, including each of the last two. Votto is coming off a season arguably equal to his MVP season of 2010, batting .320 with 36 home runs and a .454/.578/1.032 slash line. He is a remarkable hitter, putting up stellar numbers while rarely popping out. Over the last three seasons, Votto has batted .320 with a 1.006 OPS. He is averaging 31 home runs per season and has walked more times than he has struck out. Currently, Votto is showing no signs of slowing down, and hopefully he can continue this play for a couple more seasons.

6. Eric Hosmer

Incredibly, Hosmer remains unsigned at the time this article was released. What a strange offseason of baseball. Hosmer doesn’t stand out across the board, but he offers production at just about every level. He’s capable of hitting for a solid average with decent pop and he plays good defense. He has had a strange career offensively, alternating good seasons with poor ones for the first five seasons. His average has still followed an up and down year-by-year course to this day. He seems to have added more power to his game though, homering 25 times in each of the past two seasons.

Defensive metrics don’t like Hosmer, giving him a negative dWAR in every season of his career. He has a .995 career fielding percentage though, and not everyone who watches him play can be wrong. Those that see him think he is a good defender and he has won four Gold Gloves. He doesn’t steal bases like he used to, stealing 22 over the past four seasons compared to the 38 during his first three seasons. However, he plays nearly every day. In fact, he did play all 162 games last season. He has only missed time with injury in one season out of seven.

7. Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu is a one-dimensional first baseman. Luckily for him, that one dimension is a pretty good one. Since coming to the states, Abreu has homered 30 times in three out of four seasons. He is a career .301 hitter with an .883 OPS. He’s not super young, having just turned 31, but he isn’t old either. He should be a fine hitter for several years to come. The question comes, when will he move to designated hitter? Abreu is a weak defender, making 35 errors and totaling a -5.3 dWAR in his four Major League seasons. He also is a slow baserunner, stealing six bases and grounding into 72 double plays to date.

8. Josh Bell

Josh Bell has been a top prospect for years. Debuting on Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to 2012, Bell spent four seasons as part of the list. Considered a polished hitter, scouts swore the power would come from the 6’2″ 230 pound Bell. He never homered more than 14 times in any minor league season. However, he batted over .300 twice while drawing a lot of walks.

Bell’s rookie season therefore came as a bit of a surprise. Bell only batted .255 last year, but homered 26 times while driving in 90 runs. This was a very different player from what we saw in the minors. They say power develops later, and he was always suspected of having it in him, so I am buying the home runs. His average though, I only see improving. Bell hit .303 with a .373 on-base percentage in the minor leagues. Maybe he will have a harder time batting .300 at the big league level, but I suspect he is capable of batting at least .280. A .280 average would likely mean a .350-.360 on-base percentage along with 25-30 home runs. Bell is still only 25 years old.

9. Matt Olson

Matt Olson has big time power. He never got quite as much publicity as Joey Gallo before last year, but he can mash a lot of home runs without threatening all-time strikeout records. Olson hit 23 and 37 home runs in 2013 and 2014 in the low minors. He fell off some in the upper minors before returning with a vengeance last season. Olson hit 23 home runs at the AAA level before homering 24 times over 189 Major League at-bats. His Major League slash line was an astounding .352/.651/1.003. He combined to hit 47 home runs over 483 at-bats between the two highest levels.

Olson has never, and never will hit for a high average. However, he isn’t likely to hit .200 either. Olson was a career .249 hitter in the minor leagues with a .360 on-base percentage. He is likely to settle in as a .240-.250 hitter with an on-base percentage roughly 100 points higher. For a guy who should hit between 30 and 40 home runs a year, that is plenty valuable. He could be an Adam Dunn type player who doesn’t walk quite as much if he continues on last year’s path. At just 23 and not even a full season in the bigs, I am more willing to bet on Olson’s upside than some other guys who just produced for the first time at the age of 30.

Matt Olson follows the flight of his homer at Detroit last week. He averaged one home run every 7.88 plate appearances.

10. Wil Myers

There were a bunch of guys jockeying for these last couple spots, but I ultimately sided with Myers. He has done more than most by the age of 27. I found myself surprised that he is still that young given how long he has been around. Myers is fast for the position, having come up as a corner outfielder. His 20 stolen bases last season led the position. He stole even more, 28, in 2016. Over these past two seasons in San Diego, Myers has hit 58 homers and stolen 48 bases. That’s a pretty good power-speed combination.

The area in which Myers could stand to improve is getting on base. He has batted just .251 over those two seasons with a middling .332 on-base percentage. His power and speed combo at 27 years old is enough to make me side with him at the 10 spot though. I also wonder if he might hit a little better elsewhere, as 22 of his 30 home runs last season came on the road. Of course, his splits for 2016 were skewered to be far more successful at home.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Bour, Justin Smoak, Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Yulieski Gurriel

Featured picture from zimbio.com

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