Author Archives: Thomas Howland

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Mookie Betts Signing: Shades Of Lady Gaga

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The echoes of Lady Gaga’s Poker Face race through the memory banks. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship, 55% less likely, according to odds makers, than the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Almost as bad as the Patriots odds against the Falcons down 28-3. Gaga performed at halftime, and the rest was history. These were a fraction of the long odds the Red Sox were looking at resigning Mookie Betts a month ago. Then he signed with the Red Sox for $20 Million last week. Is this the turning point that Hightower’s sack of Matty Ice was?

Mookie Betts Contentious Arbitration Cases

It is well documented that Mookie has gone to the wall with the Red Sox in arbitration thus far. It has been trumpeted by Tony Massarotti, among many others, that the Sox have risked completely alienating Betts by going to arbitration after 2017.

In that case, Betts asked for $10.5 Million, and the Red Sox countered with $7.5 Million. Up to that point in history, only Kris Bryant and Ryan Howard had gotten more than $10 Million in their first year of eligibility for arbitration. They agreed before an arbitration hearing, and both had Rookie Of The Year and NL MVPs under their belts at the time. The Red Sox were most definitely looking at Mookie and saying to themselves “Hey, he hasn’t won any major awards, why give him $10.5 Million?”

Arbitration hearings can be contentious. The player is promoting themselves, while the team is tearing them down. A funny thing happened in this case. The Arbitrator sided with Betts, noting his Silver Slugger in 2016, his Gold Gloves in 2016 and 2017, and his MVP runner up in 2016. Hey, not everyone has to compete against Mike Trout.

A New Deal

But then the news came across the wire on January 11th of this year: Mookie Betts had agreed to one year contract with the Red Sox for $20 Million. This after an MVP season in 2018, when he put to bed all the worries that 2016 was a one year aberration. After a historic 105 win season and 11-3 postseason on the road to a World Series Championship.

The fact that the Red Sox have approached him with long term offers that he has rejected don’t seem so real now. His deal of $20 Million sets a record for players with only 4 years in the big leagues, but it’s still a bargain.

Mike Trout is simply the sickest player on the planet. He finished 2017 leading the majors in WAR for the 5th time. He’s played 7 years full years. If he retired tomorrow he would arguably sail into the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot. That’s the guy Mookie beat out for the 2018 AL MVP. Guess who beat Trout out for 2018 WAR lead? That’s right. Mookie Betts. In 2018 he lead the league in batting average at .346, hit 32 homers, stole 30 bases, and won another gold glove, among many other things. Yes, $20 million is a bargain.

The Future

The bars of Gaga’s A Million Reasons ring out:

” I’ve got a hundred million reasons to walk away
But baby, I just need one good one to stay “

Sox fans have a reason to feel good. Because the Sox gave Mookie $20 Million reasons to stay, and by agreeing without going to the wall in arbitration they’ve opened the door to perhaps $300 Million more after 2019.

Is it Alex Cora and a culture of togetherness and support? Maybe it’s JD Martinez and his other teammates that he loves. Could be the joy of working in Fenway Park with all of us screaming his name. Whatever the reason, Mookie has opened the door to a long term deal.

Don’t screw this up Red Sox. And go Pats!

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The Patriots Get Their Mojo Back

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It’s happening again Patriots fans. When that familiar feeling comes back, when what was old is new again. Do you remember, after the tuck rule game, before the match-up with the Rams? When Vegas thought so little of the Patriots they installed them as 14 point dogs in the Super Bowl? This was when the Patriots were at their ‘us against the world’ best. They lost that mojo, after trainers and spending time with family seemed more important than football. After Jimmy G and Gronk and going up the back stairs to the owner. But the Patriots have it back, and it will carry them to another Championship.

Poor Atlanta

Remember this?

Almost two years ago today, on February 5th 2017, the Patriots found themselves down by 25 points nearing the end of the third quarter against the Altanta Falcons.

The Patriots were favored by 3 in that Super Bowl. By that point, having faced down every possible scenario, it was all old hat. So it took the Pats being down that much, with only a quarter and a few minutes left, to kick it into high gear.

Backs against the wall, that’s when they play their best. Seattle can tell you a bit about this too.

Bulletin Board Material

Another old friend is back en vogue. Coach Belichick is a proven motivator when the timing’s right. And right now the conditions are perfect for the primordial soup of hoodie motivation.

Let’s start here:

Add a touch of this:


And there you have it. According to Vegas, The Patriots are 55% less likely to win the Super Bowl than the Chiefs. This after being the smallest favorite in the Divisional round this past weekend, but winning by the second largest margin.

The Chiefs and Pat Mahomes have been the darlings of the NFL all year. But the Patriots will not buckle under pressure or snow and ice like the Colts did. The Chiefs fumbled twice, loosing one, and had a punt blocked against the Colts. That’s a recipe for failure against a motivated Patriots team.

The Pump Has Been Primed

Tom Brady is giving voice to his motivation, and that of the team:

Over the past few years, this refrain from Brady has been rebuffed by cold, hard facts. The NFL intelligentsia has bestowed “The GOAT” label on Brady, and Best NFL Coach Of All Time to Belichick. But it’s finally true again. Everyone does think they suck. Watch out NFL.

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Forget Kimbrel, Sign Kelvin Herrera

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Mainly due to a lack of suiters, there is plenty of speculation that Craig Kimbrel is bound to come back to the Red Sox. But Kimbrel’s weaknesses haven’t disappeared. He will still be pricey, even at a reduced rate. Kelvin Herrera, however, is also sitting out there. And his experience and value could be priceless to the Sox.

Injury History

One reason Kelvin Herrera is still available is his injury history. He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well. From the looks of it, things are on track:

Beyond his foot surgery, Herrera had a right shoulder impingement in August of last year. That was actually good news. He was traded from the Royals in the first place in part due to his mysterious shoulder problems. Knowing it was an impingement provides a clear method of treatment going forward. He would not be throwing ‘light toss’ if he was still suffering.

Performance

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He will only be 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters of all the relievers that are and were available in free agency.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 innings, which is the lowest of all comparisons in the top tier.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K. His three year ERA in the regular season is 3.15.

His postseason performance is almost Rivera-esq. His postseason ERA is 1.26 in 28.2 innings. That includes a minuscule 1.081 WHIP and 11.9 K/9. He turns it up when the lights are brightest, a perfect fit for the Sox.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Bogaerts

The Brewers Are After Xander Bogaerts

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There are rumors out of Milwaukee that the Brewers are after Xander Bogaerts. Why would the Red Sox trade him, and what could they expect in return?

Salary

The Red Sox have painful salary issues coming after 2019. The MLB Luxury Tax is a big deal. The Red Sox are already losing draft positions and paying out millions.

Along with Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello will be free agents. JD Martinez has an opt-out, and will use it if he approximates his performance from last year. Mookie Betts’ arbitration numbers are going to exponentially expand.

Furthermore, Scott Boras represents Bogaerts, who just had a career year. Boras does not take hometown discounts. As for Bogaerts production, he hit the ball harder in 2018 than any year other than his 44 game cup of coffee in 2013. And he’s never hit it farther.

Is his 2018 a career year, or the natural progression of a top talent? It’s hard to take one year, that is an outlier against his other five in the majors, as the new baseline.

What The Sox Could Expect In Trade

Recently, Paul Goldschmidt was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cardinals. Goldschmidt, like Xander, was in the last year of his deal.

Goldschmidt is the Diamondbacks all time leader in OPS, SLG, Walks, and WAR. In short, his is Arizona’s Mookie Betts. For this perennial MVP candidate, the Cardinals gave up Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, Andy Young, and a draft pick. Weaver has had a modicum of success in the majors, and Kelly was a highly rated catching prospect who had a poor showing in 2018, while Young is a middling prospect.

Because of that trade, and Xander’s impending free agency, the Red Sox can expect something less. Xander simply isn’t in the class of Paul Goldschmidt. Think 24 year old SS Orlando Arcia, a slick defensive player, but number 9 hitter. He had a .661 OPS last year in Milwaukee. Add to that perhaps Freddy Peralta, who is 22 and went 6-4 with a 4.25 ERA, including 11 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9, in 2018. Peralta also had a typically dominant and wild game in the playoffs against the Dodgers. He pitched 3 innings, walked 3, struck out 6, and did not allow a hit.

Could the Red Sox get someone like 21 year old Keston Hiura added to the haul? That might make it worth it. Hiura plays 2nd Base, and had a particularly impressive Arizona Fall League Performance: .320 batting average with a .911 OPS. He hit .272/.755 over High A and Double A ball last year. Dustin Pedroia isn’t getting any younger.

Who knows, the Brewers may feel they owe Dombrowski for that Tyler Thornburg/Travis ‘Mayor of Ding Dong City’ Shaw trade from 2016, and include more in a deal. Either way, trading Xander Bogaerts would be no easy deal. He hit 4th for the majority of the year one of the greatest Red Sox team of all time. However, the Luxury Tax bill is coming due. Something has to give, sooner or later.

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Patriots Finally Have The Motivation They Need

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The sky is falling for the Patriots.  Just as people have started to come to terms with the loss to the Steelers, Josh Gordon is taking his ball and going home.  In fact, this bad news is finally enough to get Belichick’s bedrock philosophy back in vogue.  Bulletin board material is here, and just in time too.

Gordon is Gone

The details are still leaking out, but Josh Gordon appears to be looking at a suspension of some sort.  On the face of it, this is really bad news.  The Patriots have had trouble at receiver ever since Danny Amendola signed with the Dolphins last off-season.

Furthermore, the Patriots have five losses for the first time since they lost six in 2009.  That was the dreaded ‘I just can’t get this team to play the way we need to play’ team from A Football Life.

Things look bad.  So how is this a good thing?

Bulletin Board Material

Remember the halcyon days of the beginning of this Patriots dynasty?  Remember when teams took the Patriots lightly?  The Steelers are the masters of gifting Belichick with material to rile the troops.

During the 2001 Super Bowl run, the Steelers were happy to announce that their bags were packed for New Orleans and the Super Bowl.  The Patriots walked away with a 24-17 win in the AFC Championship.

The media at large was enough for Belichick in the runs to the 2001 and 2003 Championships.  No one gave the Patriots a chance against the Rams in 2001.  The hype machine for Peyton Manning was in full force in 2003.

There was a regular cornucopia of bulletin board material.  Belichick simply plucked it out of the air.

The End Of The Underdog

By the time Rodney Harrison was flapping his arms in the waning moments of the 2004 Championship against the Eagles, it was clear this motivation tactic was wearing thin.  The Patriots were favored in the game against the Eagles.  They had to dig deep to find little used wide receiver Freddy Mitchell declaring he didn’t know the Patriots defenders’ names.

In every playoff game since, other than perhaps an AFC Championship in Denver in 2016, the Patriots have been favored.  The media has begrudgingly given The Belichick’s their due.  Brady is now the GOAT.  Loosing to the Giants in two Super Bowls wasn’t enough to knock the luster off the great and powerful Patriots.

What Is Old Is New Again

It has been distressing to see Tom Brady go weird, and seemingly get Garoppolo traded.  To see Gronk looking mortal, and more interested in retirement and the WWE, than preventing miracle game loosing touchdowns.  Sure-handed Julian Edleman is dropping passes.  It looks like the Patriots are slipping, from the D to the QB, the special teams to the coach.

However, right now there is an opportunity Belichick has been looking for.  For the first time since 2003, the Patriots will be overlooked in the playoffs.  Some are saying they might not even make the playoffs.  This is despite the AFC East standings, which show the Dolphins two games back with two to play.

Bulletin board material has materialized, and Belichick will put it to maximum use.  Need to break through to an aloof Brady, an unmotivated Gronk, a shaky kicker, or struggling D?  No problem.

The Road Ahead

Currently the Patriots sit at 9-5.  That leaves them fourth in the conference. But what was true yesterday is true today.  The Patriots have the Jets and Bills left.  The Texans, who sit in third at 10-4, have the Eagles and Jaguars.  The Patriots hold the tie-breaker over Houston.  The Patriots are entirely capable of going 2-0 and ending at 11-5.  The Texans are entirely capable of going 1-1, and ending at 11-5.

Because the two top teams in the league, the Chiefs and Chargers, are in the same division, whichever ends with a worse record is the five seed.  Divisional winners go one through four.

With bulletin board material at his back, Belichick could be looking at the Number 2 seed.  He could also be looking a Divisional round game at home, then on to KC in the AFC Championship game.  Win that one, and the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl.

Belichick just got his secret weapon back.  The rest of the league will see it soon enough.

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Red Sox Hot Stove And Related News

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The Red Sox Hot Stove has burned out.  Dave Dombrowski recently noted that the free-agent market has slowed down significantly the past two years.  He’s in favor of a free-agency deadline of some sort to spurn action.  Dave Dombrowski is right.  With that in mind, here is some recent interesting MLB news, and how it affects the Red Sox.

Red Sox Transactions

You are forgiven if unfamiliar with recent Red Sox transactions Gorkys Hernandez and Zach Putnam.

Hernandez is a 30 year old outfielder.  He played 142 games last year with the San Francisco Giants.  That was the most games he has played in a year in his career.  He hit .234 with a .676 OPS last year.

Putnam is a 31 year old reliever.  He saved 6 games with a 1.98 ERA four years ago for the White Sox.  Last year he got into 7 games for a total of 8.2 innings.  Yes, he had a 1.04 ERA, but his injuries have limited him to 32 games in relief over the past two years.

These guys are AAA roster filler.  They’re just as likely to spend the year in AAA, or be injured, as they are to make any kind of impact on the Red Sox this year.

That being said, at least the Sox signed Eovaldi, not exactly a pillar of consistency himself.  Here are some other teams making moves.

Starting Pitchers

Matt Harvey got a one-year 11 million, with $3 million incentives, from the Angels.  Lance Lynn signed a three-year $30 Million deal with the Rangers.  Harvey, formally the Dark Knight of the Mets, went 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA for the Reds last year.  Lance Lynn went 10-10 between the Twins and Yankees, with a 4.77 ERA.

There are some making the argument the Red Sox overpaid for Eovaldi based on these deals.  Neither Harvey nor Lynn had a three week stretch like Eovaldi showed in the Postseason.  Time will tell, but Harvey has looked cooked, and Lynn in decline.  Starting pitching is expensive.

The Runnin’ Royals

Remember when Billy Hamilton was the next big thing?  Way back in 2013 he was a highly touted prospect.  He got a cup of coffee with the Reds that year, and flashed a .902 OPS in 13 games.  People thought he would hit a ton of doubles, steal 80 bags a year, and be a gold glover.  Since then he has lead the the league in one thing: caught stealing.  He’s managed 277 steals, but a lowly .631 OPS, in his career so far.  And he’s not sniffing gold glove caliber defense.

All through the mid to late 90s, and the first leg of the this Century’s Red Sox Championship teams, the Royal’s Kauffman Stadium was a house of horrors for the Sox.  But considering the arguments for the Royals moves include phrases like “…may not produce much in the way of offense…”, it’s safe to say the Royals won’t be much of the threat to the Sox, or any other opponent, in 2019.

Oh Those Mets

Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, with a name right out of The Sound Of Music, is showing why there was hope he could be had in a deal for Noah Syndergaard.  The Mets just gave Wilson Ramos a 2-year $19 million deal.  The 30 year old has two All Star nods, including last year.  But after being a stalwart for the Phillies and Nationals for several years, he’s been getting nicked up a little more each year.

He missed the All Star game last year with a hamstring injury from running the bases.  Catchers, for the most part, do not get better after 30.  Maybe if Christian Vazguez was 30 and injury prone, instead of 27 and coming off a great postseason, the Mets would’ve wanted him.  $9.5 million a year for Ramos is another head-scratching move.

A Dearth Of Big Name Deals

La Stella, Torreyes and Descalso.  Now there’s some big time talent, so exciting!  Can we get a Marwin Gonzalez deal at the very least?

How About A Former Big Name?

The artist formally known as Tulo is causing a stir.  This five-time All Star is so bad, the Blue Jays paid $38 million to release him last week.  That’s Pablo ‘Panda’ Sandoval territory.  Now a third of all teams are clambering to overpay him.

Let’s a hope an AL East team grabs him, so Red Sox pitching can rack up more strikeouts.

Hope, In This Season Of Hope

The tails of Yasiel Puig and Rusney Castillo, and all the Cuban defectors, are harrowing stories of heartbreak and despair.  Three cheers for MLB, trying to make this a better process.

Can You Imagine This In The Winter Of 2004?

I’m pretty sure the excitement was at a Fever Pitch in the early winter of 2004.  This team just put down a historic run to a World Championship.  The Red Sox raised ticket prices in advance of putting them on sale.  Of course, marketing is important for any organization.  But to not be mostly sold out at this point is a part of the problem Dave Dombrowski pointed out.  There is a distinct lack of buzz out there.

How To Be A Great Friend

https://twitter.com/RockWalkLondon/status/1074914135048159233

Happy belated Birthday to Keith Richards, who recently turned 75.  He showed us all how to stand up for our friends.

May we all be there for each other in the coming year.

 

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MLB Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

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The 2018 Baseball Winter Meetings have ended.  Here is a Red Sox focused roundup, and other related notes.

Rule Changes

Before the meetings, there was a lot of buzz about a pitch clock to speed up the game.  Once the meetings began it was all about The Shift.

https://twitter.com/megrowler/status/1073012029437296640

2018 resulted in a league wide .248 batting average, the lowest since 1972.  Singles are also in a five years decline.  Apparently, according to Jason Stark of the Athletic, the Commissioner, owners, batters, and pitchers are all for shift reform.

Of course there’s backlash.  People are decrying unintended consequences.  The debate rages on.

Eovaldi’s Back

The Red Sox led off the Winter Meetings by agreeing with Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years and $67.5 Million.  It seemed like a reasonable deal at the time.  Little did we know something like this would happen, seemingly within hours of the signing becoming official:

The Red Sox Crying Poor Mouth

https://twitter.com/SportsRaid365/status/1072984889681698817

Could this be true?

It seems incredible, with the Red Sox coming off a World Series title and raising ticket prices, that they need to clear salary space.  Dave Dombrowski threw some cold water on this story, but didn’t deny it.

A Red Sox Bullpen In Flux

Early this morning, new broke that Fightin’ Joe Kelly is going west.

Kelly was one of the stalwarts of a transformed bullpen, that turned into a bunch of vintage Ecks, in the 2018 playoffs.  With Kelly gone, could a reunion that seemed impossible happen?

It seems incredible, with reports of Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal for nine figures, that he could come back.  Apparently, the Red Sox are playing chicken and waiting for the price to come down.

Other than Kelly and Jeurys Familia, more on him in a minute, the reliever market has been quiet.  The Sox probably need two more relievers this off-season.

2019 Lineup Changes

Mookie has been known to resist moving out of the leadoff spot, and he can be stubborn, so Cora is planting the seed early.

It makes sense to move the more powerful Betts behind Benintendi.  More RBIs for Mookie, a two-three of Mookie and JD is pretty formidable.  This will lead to a right handed heavy 2-3-4, with Xander behind JD Martinez or vice versa.

Not every lineup can have Papi and Manny back to back.

Too Many Catchers

The Red Sox having one too many catchers has been an open question for some time.  Alex Cora spoke about the possibility of a trade at the Winter Meetings:

The Winter Meetings were anti-climatic in terms of moves being made by the Red Sox.  But there was one team that lead off the Meetings with a bang:

The Mets Making Moves

They started by acquiring Cano and Diaz from the Mariners.  They ended the meetings by bringing back Jeurys Familia.

https://twitter.com/TheCouchGMs/status/1073202870646923264

The Red Sox have the assets to almost perfectly match up with the Mets.  If the Red Sox are truly considering moving Jackie Bradley, would the Mets consider a left handed bat in the outfield?  The Red Sox have extra catchers.

Noah Syndergaard is rumored to be available.  Stay tuned.

 

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Nathan Eovaldi Is Back

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The Red Sox have re-signed Nathan Eovaldi to a 4 year, $67.5 Million deal.  The postseason horse is back in the barn.  Because of the lack of home grown talent, and a shallow free agent pool, this was a move the Red Sox needed to make.

Overpaid?

Well respected and knowledgeable baseball minds are trumpeting how bad a deal this is.  To whit:

Framingham’s own Lou Merloni was on the airwaves of WEEI and NBCSN last night saying essentially the same thing.  Because of Eovaldi’s injury history, this is an over-pay.

It is true that Eovaldi has not been consistent in his career.  Therefore, the Red Sox could paying for only potential.  But where does this deal stack up against a different set of peers than the esteemed Mr. Massarotti put forth:

  • Yu Darvish $21 Million
  • Jeff Samardzija $18 Million
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $17.9 Million
  • Nathan Eovaldi $16.875 Million
  • Mike Leake $16 Million
  • Wei-Yin Chen $16 Million
  • Rich Hill $16 Million

In this context, Eovaldi almost looks like a bargain.

October Performance

Songs have been sung about Eovaldi’s guts in Game 3 of the World Series alone, because these numbers are positively Schilling-esk:

22.1 Innings, 2-1 record, 15 Hits, 3 Walks, 16 Strikeouts, 1.61 ERA

He pitched in three of the five World Series games, and was the hard-luck looser in the longest game in World Series history.  Because of his 6 innings of extra innings work in Game 3, the bullpen was saved, as well as the other starters.  This ultimately resulted in a World Series Championship.

Nathan Eovaldi Is Necessary 

The Red Sox have almost no starting pitcher talent in the minor leagues.  Their best prospect, Jay Groome, underwent Tommy John Surgery in May of this year.  Beyond Groome, there is no one to speak of who could help the Red Sox in 2019.

If not Eovaldi, then what?  J.A. Happ: A 36 year old pitcher who pitched a grand total of 2 innings in the Yankees Game 1 loss to the Red Sox in the Divisional Round.  Dallas Keuchel: A 31 year old pitcher who has already had his best days.  Eovaldi’s best days are ahead.

Perhaps the Eovaldi signing leads to a bigger deal.  At the very least, the Red Sox have a solid #3 or #4 starter.  And he has the potential to be more, at a reasonable cost.

 

Get Noah Syndergaard On The Red Sox

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The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade.  Nathan Eovaldi is back!  Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike.  Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston.  A quick reminder:

The Mets

The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano.  They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal.  He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest.  Those guys are often inconsistent.  They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts.  Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years.  But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday.  His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.

When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade.  And why wouldn’t they?  Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years.  His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.

But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system.  Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get.  Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.

The Padres

The most recent rumor from the MLB Network was a package of Manny Margot, Austin Hedges, and Mackenzie Gore.

Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder.  In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS.  In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS.  Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.

Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else.  In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.

Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts.  He also walks a lot of people.  Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.

The Rockies

The Rockies have a lot of young pitching.  It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense.  This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air.  The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado.  Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base.  He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.

So what does this mean?  The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching.  More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters.  But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have.  The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.

The Red Sox

Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.

Margot is 24, Hedges is 26.  Devers is still the tender age of 22.  This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year.  Furthermore, Devers  hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.

That’s special.  But he’s no Tony Conigliaro.  The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.

Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent.  That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.

What’s more, the Mets need a catcher.  The Red Sox have a plethora.  Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal.  But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead.  A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.

If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some.  The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game.  It would take less top young talent than some other teams.

Eovaldi Frees Things Up

And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to.  This gives the Red Sox more options.  They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.

Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch

At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make.  Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time.  Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range.  All three of those other guys will cost more than that.

Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out.  He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million.   With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.

Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration.  He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million.  If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out.  Thor has three years of control left in arbitration.  He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.

If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.

Time To Act

There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto.  They are itching to trade.  The competition for Syndergaard is falling away.  The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems.  Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.

2019 Red Sox Free Agency: Get Cody Allen

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The Red Sox bullpen is in flux for 2019.  Craig Kimbrel is out there asking for a 6-year deal, which the Red Sox will never give him.  Joe Kelly is also a free agent, and his performance doesn’t exactly inspire.  Because an already bloated Red Sox payroll, it’s looking like a budget bullpen piece is the answer.  The place to go is Cody Allen.

Cody Allen Performance

Between the years of 2014 and 2017, Cody Allen was one of the best closers in the game.  He averaged 32 saves a year as the anchor of a star-studded bullpen that included Andrew Miller.  The Cleveland Indians rode that bullpen to a lot of postseason success, including a run to the 2016 World Series.

In the regular season, he averaged an ERA under 3 during that time, but he stepped it up in the Postseason.  His career Postseason ERA was 0.47 in 19 innings.  That’s positively vintage Mariano Rivera territory.

But then 2018 happened.  He had a 4.70 ERA, lost his closer position, and got blown up in the Postseason.  So what gives?

The information may be behind a paywall, but pitch usage points to a few things – specifically his curveball.  The curve got less swing and misses in 2018, and he had some trouble throwing it for strikes.  Furthermore, he lost a MPH on his fastball, which dipped below 94 MPH.  The fastball/curve mix is what made him so deadly.

Maybe being in a free agent year got to him.  Maybe he was simply tired and in this era of quick hooks and little patience he crumbled.  But he wouldn’t be available if he had remained elite last year.

Contract Possibilities

A quick google search of Cody Allen shows a distinct lack of contract demands.  There are not even stories out there like this one, saying Joe Kelly is being looked at by multiple teams as a closer.  Because of this, it appears clear that Allen would come cheap.  Maybe even on a one year deal.  Now that’s more like it.

Cody Allen isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but he looks pretty good from here.  He’s one year removed from being untouchable in the Postseason for many years.  He’s only 30 years old, he’s cheap, and he would be an excellent gamble to pair with the remaining relievers on the staff, such as Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes, in the late innings.

Furthermore, he is right-handed.  This is essential.  The Red Sox biggest competition, the Astros and Yankees, have a plethora of right-handed, middle of the order bats in their lineups.  To me, that excludes left-handed possibilities for essential bullpen roles like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton.  Kelvin Herrera is also cheap, right-handed, and recently successful, but arm troubles on top of foot troubles make him too risky.

That leaves Cody Allen.  Sign him.