Author Archives: Scott Frizzell

About Scott Frizzell

I have lived in New Hampshire my entire life. Huge Boston sports fan with an emphasis on baseball and football. Love the history of baseball and I should be given a Hall of Fame vote to help them get it right. This is my first time writing for an audience, I appreciate any support from you guys.

The Top First Basemen in Baseball

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First base is one of the deepest positions in the league. As such, there will be plenty of talented players left off this list. Also, whereas Joey Votto is arguably the best first baseman right now, at the age of 34 he drops a few spots for the purposes of my list. I factor in age and answer the question, who would I most want to start a team with? I could easily go 15 deep in this list, but sticking with the theme, here are my top 10.

1. Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is about as steady as they come. Year in, year out, he puts up big numbers without as much publicity as the game’s top stars. Make no mistake, he is one of the top stars in the game. Goldy, as he is affectionately called, hasn’t batted below .297 since 2012 and has eclipsed 30 home runs three times during that span. 2013 was his true breakout season, leading the league with 36 home runs, 125 RBI and a .952 OPS. Two years later he was even better, batting .321 with 33 home runs and a career high 1.005 OPS. In a stat that adjusts for ballpark and other factors, Goldschmidt also posted a career best 168 OPS+. He finished 2nd in the MVP vote for the second time in three years. Last season he finished third in the vote after hitting 36 home runs.

Goldschmidt is also perhaps the best baserunner amongst first basemen. He stole 18 bags for the second time in his career last season. The year before he had stolen a career high 32 bases! Goldschmidt isn’t fast, he is just adept at getting big leads and reading a pitcher. According to Mike Petriello of MLB.com, Goldschmidt has an average lead of nearly 15 feet when he attempts to steal a base. The average lead is less than 12 feet. In the field, Goldschmidt has a career .996 fielding percentage and has won 3 Gold Gloves. He is a very well-rounded player and my choice for the best first baseman in baseball.

2. Freddie Freeman

Freeman has always been a good player, but his game has gone to new heights the past two years. Over his first five seasons, Freeman was a .286 hitter and averaged 21 home runs per season with an .835 OPS. The beginning of 2016 was much the same, but starting in June, he changed his hitting approach. His adjustments helped him see the ball longer and to stay on the pitch. Since, he has been one of the best hitters in baseball.

Freeman wound up hitting .302 with 34 homers and a .968 OPS that season. This past year, despite missing time with an injury, Freeman hit .307 with 28 home runs and a career high .989 OPS. The OPS was the second highest among first basemen in the Major Leagues. This all led to a 4.5 WAR despite only accumulating 440 at-bats. Still just 28 years old, there is no reason Freeman shouldn’t continue this stellar play for years to come.

3. Anthony Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo has overcome a lot to get where he is now. A top prospect with the Red Sox, Rizzo had to conquer cancer at the age of 18. He was traded to San Diego and did not find immediate Major League success. Reacquired by Theo Epstein, the man who initially brought him to Boston, Rizzo started showing why he was a big prospect. For four seasons now he has been one of the better first basemen in the league.

Over these past four seasons, Rizzo has hit over 30 home runs in each season. During that time he has batted .282 with a .387/.522/.910 triple slash. There haven’t been many more consistent power threats in the game during that span. At 28 years old, Rizzo is part of the same generation as Goldschmidt and Freeman and should be hitting baseballs over the wall for plenty of years to come.

Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs hits a two run home run in the 4th inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on July 7, 2017. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel)

4. Cody Bellinger

At just 22 years old last year, Bellinger led all first baseman in home runs with 39. His .933 OPS placed 4th at the position while his .581 slugging percentage was second to Freddie Freeman. At such a young age, Bellinger should have more years to offer than those above him on this list, but they are all young enough they should produce well for an entire length of a contract. I also trust the ones above him to perform more consistently. Bellinger was a top prospect, and I have no doubt he will keep performing, but I’d like to see more before elevating him above established superstars.

Bellinger has revamped his swing in recent years and gets incredible lift on the ball, so the power is likely to stay. Whereas he used to be “stiff” at the plate, Dodgers coaches worked with him through the minors to change his style. Bellinger went from hitting four home runs over 377 at-bats in 2013 and 2014, to hitting 30 homers in 2015. The one downside, if any, is that he strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t hit for as high an average as those above him. At just 22, I can see him improve that area of his game without sacrificing a great deal of power.

5. Joey Votto

As I said in the opening, Votto is arguably the best first baseman in the league. However, he is 34 years old. The guys above him likely have six or more years of star play left, Votto might have two or three before he starts to decline. Still, I will take two or three years of superstar play and then a couple more years of decent play over just good play for six years.

In Votto’s first full season he batted .297. In 2014, he missed half the season with injury and only batted .255. He has batted above .300 all of the other nine seasons in his career. He has led the league in on-base percentage six times, including each of the last two. Votto is coming off a season arguably equal to his MVP season of 2010, batting .320 with 36 home runs and a .454/.578/1.032 slash line. He is a remarkable hitter, putting up stellar numbers while rarely popping out. Over the last three seasons, Votto has batted .320 with a 1.006 OPS. He is averaging 31 home runs per season and has walked more times than he has struck out. Currently, Votto is showing no signs of slowing down, and hopefully he can continue this play for a couple more seasons.

6. Eric Hosmer

Incredibly, Hosmer remains unsigned at the time this article was released. What a strange offseason of baseball. Hosmer doesn’t stand out across the board, but he offers production at just about every level. He’s capable of hitting for a solid average with decent pop and he plays good defense. He has had a strange career offensively, alternating good seasons with poor ones for the first five seasons. His average has still followed an up and down year-by-year course to this day. He seems to have added more power to his game though, homering 25 times in each of the past two seasons.

Defensive metrics don’t like Hosmer, giving him a negative dWAR in every season of his career. He has a .995 career fielding percentage though, and not everyone who watches him play can be wrong. Those that see him think he is a good defender and he has won four Gold Gloves. He doesn’t steal bases like he used to, stealing 22 over the past four seasons compared to the 38 during his first three seasons. However, he plays nearly every day. In fact, he did play all 162 games last season. He has only missed time with injury in one season out of seven.

7. Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu is a one-dimensional first baseman. Luckily for him, that one dimension is a pretty good one. Since coming to the states, Abreu has homered 30 times in three out of four seasons. He is a career .301 hitter with an .883 OPS. He’s not super young, having just turned 31, but he isn’t old either. He should be a fine hitter for several years to come. The question comes, when will he move to designated hitter? Abreu is a weak defender, making 35 errors and totaling a -5.3 dWAR in his four Major League seasons. He also is a slow baserunner, stealing six bases and grounding into 72 double plays to date.

8. Josh Bell

Josh Bell has been a top prospect for years. Debuting on Baseball America’s top 100 list prior to 2012, Bell spent four seasons as part of the list. Considered a polished hitter, scouts swore the power would come from the 6’2″ 230 pound Bell. He never homered more than 14 times in any minor league season. However, he batted over .300 twice while drawing a lot of walks.

Bell’s rookie season therefore came as a bit of a surprise. Bell only batted .255 last year, but homered 26 times while driving in 90 runs. This was a very different player from what we saw in the minors. They say power develops later, and he was always suspected of having it in him, so I am buying the home runs. His average though, I only see improving. Bell hit .303 with a .373 on-base percentage in the minor leagues. Maybe he will have a harder time batting .300 at the big league level, but I suspect he is capable of batting at least .280. A .280 average would likely mean a .350-.360 on-base percentage along with 25-30 home runs. Bell is still only 25 years old.

9. Matt Olson

Matt Olson has big time power. He never got quite as much publicity as Joey Gallo before last year, but he can mash a lot of home runs without threatening all-time strikeout records. Olson hit 23 and 37 home runs in 2013 and 2014 in the low minors. He fell off some in the upper minors before returning with a vengeance last season. Olson hit 23 home runs at the AAA level before homering 24 times over 189 Major League at-bats. His Major League slash line was an astounding .352/.651/1.003. He combined to hit 47 home runs over 483 at-bats between the two highest levels.

Olson has never, and never will hit for a high average. However, he isn’t likely to hit .200 either. Olson was a career .249 hitter in the minor leagues with a .360 on-base percentage. He is likely to settle in as a .240-.250 hitter with an on-base percentage roughly 100 points higher. For a guy who should hit between 30 and 40 home runs a year, that is plenty valuable. He could be an Adam Dunn type player who doesn’t walk quite as much if he continues on last year’s path. At just 23 and not even a full season in the bigs, I am more willing to bet on Olson’s upside than some other guys who just produced for the first time at the age of 30.

Matt Olson follows the flight of his homer at Detroit last week. He averaged one home run every 7.88 plate appearances.

10. Wil Myers

There were a bunch of guys jockeying for these last couple spots, but I ultimately sided with Myers. He has done more than most by the age of 27. I found myself surprised that he is still that young given how long he has been around. Myers is fast for the position, having come up as a corner outfielder. His 20 stolen bases last season led the position. He stole even more, 28, in 2016. Over these past two seasons in San Diego, Myers has hit 58 homers and stolen 48 bases. That’s a pretty good power-speed combination.

The area in which Myers could stand to improve is getting on base. He has batted just .251 over those two seasons with a middling .332 on-base percentage. His power and speed combo at 27 years old is enough to make me side with him at the 10 spot though. I also wonder if he might hit a little better elsewhere, as 22 of his 30 home runs last season came on the road. Of course, his splits for 2016 were skewered to be far more successful at home.

Honorable Mentions:

Justin Bour, Justin Smoak, Matt Carpenter, Joey Gallo, Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana, Yulieski Gurriel

 

Featured picture from zimbio.com

The Best Catchers in Baseball Long-Term

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Lists have been circulating for the top 10 players at each position “right now”. Personally, I like to look at things with more of a long-term view. My lists factor in age and don’t just focus on the 2018 season. I take a look at it in more of a, “who would I draft if I were starting a team from scratch”, sort of way. So someone like Yadier Molina, who is a borderline future Hall of Famer, would have a very difficult time making the list at the age of 35. I also do not factor Minor Leaguers into the equation, so Francisco Mejia will have to wait his turn.

1. Buster Posey

Buster Posey remains in the top spot for me, although barely. I had a long debate with myself over this top spot. At 30 years old, Posey isn’t a young chicken anymore, but he is far from old. There are a couple young bucks knocking on his door, ultimately defense led me to keep him atop his throne. The two young catchers making a case for the top spot have troubles behind the dish currently, whereas Posey is a strong defender.

Posey has batted .300 five times in his career, and in three of the past four seasons. His home run power has been declining, but he still knows how to spray the ball all over the yard. I also expect to see a slight rebound in his power as he is too good to finish with just 12-14 home runs again. For his career, Posey has batted .308 while averaging 20 homers per 162 games played. He has an .850 career OPS and is coming off a season in which he produced the second highest batting average and on-base percentage of his career.

The Giants like to play Posey at first base some to save his knees and keep him fresher, and I think it would be smart of them to continue to do that more now that he is in his thirties. Ultimately, I think Posey will move off catcher in a couple of years and continue to be a good hitter for years to come.

2. Willson Contreras

Contreras is the youngster I most debated with moving into the top spot. Looking into his defense though, I found he has plenty of work to do to become the all-around catcher Buster Posey is. Contreras has made 19 errors and allowed 13 passed balls in 165 games at catcher. His 13 errors last season tied for the most at the position. Contreras does have a strong arm though and still plenty young to improve on defense.

At the plate, Contreras is already showing a lot. After debuting on top prospects list before the 2016 season, Contreras raked at AAA Iowa to the tune of a .353 average and 1.035 OPS. Since getting the call-up midseason, Contreras has batted .278 with 33 home runs and an .851 OPS in 629 Major League at-bats. Not too shabby for a guy just starting out. His 21 home runs last season came in just 377 at-bats. With regular playing time, Contreras looks like a catcher who can hit above .280 with 25-30 home runs. With some improvement on the defensive side of things and I might just change my mind about that top spot.

3. Gary Sanchez

Sanchez is, admittedly, a lot better than I ever thought he’d be. He has put up much better numbers at the Major League level than he ever did in the minors. Strange how all the Yankees players seem to go from mediocre minor leaguers to stars in the Majors. Sanchez did make the top 100 of prospects lists many times however, and here he is following up on that promise. After destroying the baseball following his call-up two seasons ago, Sanchez batted .278 while homering 33 times last year. His .876 OPS was tops at the position, edging out Posey and Contreras. Sanchez appears to be a perennial 30 home run threat.

The reason Sanchez comes in at third on my list is his defense. Quite frankly, Sanchez has no business even being a catcher. It seemed like every time I watched him play last year he was dropping at least one pitch every game. His 13 errors last season tied him for the Major League lead, as did his 16 passed balls. Leading just one category is bad enough, but both? Just give the man a bat and sit him on the bench at all other times.

4. Salvador Perez

It seems like Perez has been around a while, yet he is still only 27. Perez comes in 4th on this list due to his great defense and his power bat. He never walks, leading him to an on-base percentage under .300 four years running. However, he has homered over 20 times in each of the last three, topping out at 27 last season. This power still led him to the 5th highest OPS at the position last year among guys with 400 plate appearances. I’ve also always gotten the feeling his bat would perform a little better if Ned Yost would give him a few more days off. Perez seems to play catcher more than anyone else year in and year out, and his bat typically fades in the second half.

Perez is thought very highly for his ability to handle a pitching staff. He also is very good at blocking balls in the dirt and at throwing out runners. As such, he had won four straight Gold Gloves before last season. He also has made the same amount of errors over the last three years combined as the two catchers above him on this list made last season alone. It took him four years to compile the amount of passed balls Sanchez did last year.

5. J.T. Realmuto

Realmuto, despite being in the league for half as long as Perez, turns 27 before the season starts. He is perhaps the fastest catcher in baseball, using that speed to steal 28 bases over the last three seasons. He also is a pretty decent hitter, hitting .303 in 2016. His average dropped to a still respectable .278 last season, but he added more power, hitting 17 home runs. His .783 OPS was just a little behind Perez.

His defense needs a little work, as he has made 22 errors and allowed 28 passed balls over his three seasons in the bigs. His defense isn’t so bad that he might get moved to a different position, but he has some work to put in before moving up the list.

6. Welington Castillo

Castillo has been perennially underrated the past few seasons. He has a power bat, for the position, and a strong throwing arm. Castillo broke out in 2015 after joining the Diamondbacks, hitting 17 home runs over just 274 at-bats. He was decent again in 2016 before setting some personal bests last season. Castillo hit a career high 20 home runs in only 341 at-bats. He batted .282 with a .490 slugging percentage and .813 OPS. Behind the plate, Castillo led the league by throwing out 49% of would be base stealers. At 30 years old and not a lot of innings on his legs, Castillo should remain a solid contributor for a few more years.

Welington Castillo watches a home run sail.

7. Mike Zunino

Zunino was drafted third overall by the Seattle Mariners in 2012. He tore up minor league pitching the rest of that season and was ranked by Baseball America as the 13th best prospect in baseball. The Mariners rushed him to the Majors the next season and Zunino wasn’t ready. Not given the proper time to develop, Zunino hasn’t been the player he was supposed to be. Before last season he was a .195 career hitter at the Major League level.

Early last season was much the same for Zunino, as he was batting .167 when he got sent to the minors in early May. Something clicked for Zunino after a second call-up though. Starting in June, Zunino batted .272 the rest of the way with 24 home runs. He had a stellar .582 slugging percentage and .936 OPS during that time, numbers that would even surpass Gary Sanchez. So the question is, which Zunino will we see moving forward? Will he revert back to the hitter he was before last season, or will the improvements take permanent hold?

Mariners catcher Mike Zunino hits a home run during the fifth inning against the Astros.

8. Austin Barnes

Barnes is a name not many people knew until the postseason last year. Barnes entered last year with a total of 61 career at-bats. He earned more and more playing time as last season progressed before ultimately usurping Yasmani Grandal for the starting catcher role. Barnes had batted .289 with 8 home runs and a stellar .408/.486/.895 slash line on the season. He then played in 15 games in the playoffs as opposed to just four for Grandal. There is precedence for Barnes’ hitting, as he was a career .299 hitter with a .388 on-base percentage during his minor league career.

9. Christian Vazquez

Red Sox fans have heard about Vazquez’ defense and amazing arm for years now. We finally got a chance to see it on a regular basis last year. Vazquez was the Red Sox main catcher and threw out 42% of attempted base stealers. This was right in line with his 43% in his career. He does have some work to do with blocking pitches, but I have little doubt the rest of his game behind the plate will improve.

Vazquez has always been good at getting his bat on the ball, so I thought he could develop into a solid contact hitter with decent averages. I was surprised to see him bat as high as .290 last year though in his first full season. Even if he can’t maintain an average that high moving forward, a contact hitter at catcher who can bat .270 while controlling the running game is a definite asset.

Christian Vazquez hits a walk-off three run homer of Indians closer Cody Allen.

10. Yasmani Grandal

This spot was up for grabs, and I ultimately went with Grandal, who might not even have a starting job this year. A low average hitter, Grandal has historically drawn a lot of walks while hitting for power. Last season though, his walks dropped off quite a bit while he struck out more than ever. This is a concerning development for Grandal fans and made me want to go in another direction. There aren’t a whole lot of options though, and with his power and just 29 years old Grandal still seemed like the choice. He has homered 49 times over the last two seasons.

Grandal is also considered to be an excellent pitch framer. That’s really all he has working for him behind the plate though, as he has led the league in passed balls in three of the past four seasons. His defense tends to be overrated by analytics.

Honorable Mentions:

Wilson Ramos, Yadier Molina, Jonathan Lucroy, Robinson Chirinos, Brian McCann

 

Featured picture from minorleagueball.com

Is the Bullpen Cart Making a Comeback?

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As Major League Baseball searches for ways to shorten games and attract fan attention, there has been talk of bullpen carts making a return to the game. Bullpen carts were a fixture in baseball during the 1970’s, but where did they originate? Will the return of the carts to escort relievers into the game actually speed anything up?

The Origins of the Bullpen Cart

According to Paul Lukas of ESPN, the first use of a “bullpen cart” came in 1950. The Indians were the first team to implement this, using something known as “the little red wagon.” Teams slowly added some sort of cart to bring relief pitchers from the bullpen to the mound. There was no immediate craze where everyone jumped on board with it, they just slowly trickled their way into the game. In fact, the Braves didn’t become the first National League team to use one until mid-season in 1959.

“A motor scooter with sidecar was used for the first time in the National league by the Braves. Here pitcher Hal Jeffcoat arrived at the mound, chauffeured by John (Freckles) Bonneau. It took less than 30 seconds to make the trip. 6/24/1959. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Teams slowly started using golf carts during the 1960’s to make the trip rather than little wagons and scooters. Oddly, no one is really sure of the evolution that took place into the well-known baseball shaped golf carts of the 1970’s. The Mets had a baseball shaped golf cart in 1967, but it is not known for a fact this was the first of them.

The Height of the Bullpen Cart Era

The seventies is the decade that first comes to mind when talking about bullpen carts. The use of the carts was widespread throughout baseball. Also in this decade, teams implemented the design that is well known.

Houston Astros cart circa 1970’s

The combination of these throwback Astros uniform with their bullpen cart is awesome. Teams used these throughout the seventies and up through the eighties as well. Most of these carts were the same from team to team; just the baseball cap atop the cart changed to match the hometown team. The Seattle Mariners went a step further with their cart, trying to make it match the theme of their nickname.

The Mariners tugboat cart was introduced in 1982.

However, the bullpen carts started dying out as the eighties drew to a close and the nineties ushered in a new era. Some pitchers did not like to use them and chose to run alongside them even when they were in use. As the mid-nineties came, the cart completely died out. The Brewers were the last team to employ one in 1995.

Nicknamed “Papa Cheese”, the Brewers bullpen cart was the last one still being used by 1995.

Are Bullpen Carts Worth It?

How much would reintroducing the bullpen cart to the game really change things? Except for the relievers who slowly lumber out to the mound, I don’t see bullpen carts actually speeding things up much. Most relievers tend to jog in from the pen, which would probably only take a few seconds longer than a cart trip. Are some baseball fans just nostalgic for the goofy baseball designed carts from the past? Maybe with all the pitching changes that take place in today’s game these carts could help a little. However, how much time can they really carve off of a game?

The reason for bringing these back would seem to be more of an entertainment factor. If each team had some neat design that complemented what their team is about it could be a fun time. The Mariners tugboat may have been a little over the top, but looking back on it, it looks pretty awesome. I hope if they are brought back some of the goofy design from a few decades ago is kept. Some improvements will need to be made and MLB can modernize the look of the carts, but they should remain baseball themed.

Red Sox pitcher Bill Lee arrives in the bullpen cart to relieve Ferguson Jenkins in the fifth inning as the Red Sox played the White Sox on July 24, 1977. (Boston Globe)

 

Featured picture from SonsofSamHorn.net

The Top Relievers in Baseball

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In today’s game, relief pitchers are used so often. Starters are often relied upon to only go five to six innings, then turn it over to the pen to close things out for several innings. There are more relievers in the game, and more guys who throw in the upper 90’s. Nowadays, there are so many guys who can dominate for an inning, and oftentimes there are random guys who have one outstanding season. This can make it difficult to determine who is real and who is a pretender. In this article, I factor in age when determining my top 10.

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel is one of the most dominant stoppers the game has ever seen. From when he broke in during the 2010 season, through 2014, Kimbrel had a ridiculous 1.43 ERA while saving 186 games. During this time he struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings pitched and had a WHIP of 0.90. You really can’t be any better than he was. He did tail off for two seasons after leaving Atlanta, though he did save 70 games with a sub 3.00 ERA.

Last season, Kimbrel was back to his dominant self, pitching to a 1.43 ERA, the same ERA he had during his first five seasons. Kimbrel had a crazy low 0.68 WHIP and a filthy 16.4 strike outs per nine innings. In fact, if Kimbrel had struck out just one batter that managed to put the ball in play, he would have struck out exactly half of the batters he faced on the season. Still just 29 years old, Kimbrel should have plenty of run left as a dominant closer.

Kenley Jansen

Kimbrel and Jansen are clearly the top two relievers in baseball in my mind. It was them one-two, and then figuring out the rest. Jansen is remarkable in that he was a catcher in the minor leagues before becoming one of the most dominant relievers in the game. In parts of eight seasons, Jansen has posted an ERA below 2.00 in half of them. One of the top strike out artists in baseball, Jansen has struck out 14 batters per nine innings pitched during his career.

Jansen had arguably his best season last year, leading the league with 41 saves to go with his 5-0 record. He had the lowest ERA (1.32) and the lowest WHIP (0.75) of anyone with 11 or more innings pitched in the National League. Jansen has saved 230 games during his career. His ERA is 2.08 and he has a career 0.87 WHIP. Every number is among the league leaders during the time period.

Photo by John McCoy/So Cal News Group

Roberto Osuna

This might be a name that doesn’t come straight to mind for most. Osuna has not been around long, and pitches for a mediocre team north of the border. As such, Osuna doesn’t get the publicity others do. Make no mistake, Osuna is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Turning just 23 in less than a week, Osuna should be around much longer than guys behind him on this list.

As a closer, one thing you don’t want to do is allow baserunners. Osuna has a WHIP below 1.00 in all three seasons of his career, so he does a great job of limiting them. This past season, even though his ERA was a career high 3.38, Osuna allowed the fewest baserunners of his career at 0.86 per inning. He also allowed a career low three home runs, leading me to believe his still solid ERA was flukily high. With a little more luck, his ERA should dip back closer to 2.50 this coming season. Osuna has saved 95 games in his first three seasons, and at such a young age there is room for improvement.

Andrew Miller

If this list was just for 2018, Miller would be at least one spot higher. Easily the most dominant left-handed reliever in the game, Miller dominates both left-handed and right-handed hitters alike.

Over the last four years, Miller has been arguably more dominant than anyone. He is 22-11 over that span with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 14.5 strike outs per nine innings. He can go for more than one innings, which he illustrated during the postseason over the past couple years. In postseason play, Miller has a 1.10 ERA over 32.2 innings pitched. He seems to dominate no matter the circumstance. Miller will be turning 33 in May, giving him a full decade on Roberto Osuna, causing me to place Osuna in the third spot. I will not argue the fact that at the moment, Miller is the better pitcher.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Dellin Betances

I was shocked when I looked up Betances and learned he would be 30 years old before the season starts. He has only been around for four years, so it seems like he should be much younger. He also has been less dominant the last two seasons than he was in his first two. However, Betances can still dominate and has great stuff, so he cracks my top five. After pitching to a 1.45 ERA in his first two seasons, Betances’ ERA in the last two is 2.98. His WHIP has also risen every season, going from 0.78 in 2014 to 1.22 last season. There are some warning signs, but this is still a guy who has struck out over 15 batters per nine in each of the last two years. Last year, only Craig Kimbrel had a better strike out rate in the AL.

Ken Giles

Ken Giles struggled this past postseason, but that should not be all you think about when it comes to him. At 27, Giles has been in the majors for four years. Giles has a 2.43 career ERA and 12.4 strike outs per nine. After dominating for two seasons in Philadelphia, Giles encountered his first struggles in 2016 with the Astros. Despite the struggles, he did strike out a career high 14 batters per nine. Reaffirming himself as one of the better relievers in baseball, Giles posted a 2.30 ERA for the Astros last year with a 1.04 WHIP. He bolstered the back end of the Houston bullpen as they made their race towards the playoffs. Giles should be a good closer for years to come.

Aroldis Chapman

One could definitely argue that Chapman should be higher on the list. After all, I do have Chapman approaching top 10 all-time status for relief pitchers. However, Chapman showed signs of cracking last season and will be 30 before the month is out. Not that 30 is old, but he has eight Major League seasons of throwing a ball 100 miles per hour. All the stress of throwing that hard could catch up to him. Late last year, his control was all over the place and he exhibited very poor body language on the mound at times. I also wonder then how he will handle the pressures of New York.

All that said, Chapman still posted good numbers, just far from the great ones we were used to from him. His ERA was its highest since 2011, as was his WHIP. Chapman also posted the lowest strike outs per nine of his career. For his career though, Chapman has struck out nearly 15 batters per nine innings while allowing one baserunner per inning. He has surpassed 200 career saves with a 2.21 ERA.

Cody Allen

A man who can keep Andrew Miller from being a closer must be a pretty good pitcher, and Cody Allen is that man. He isn’t better than Miller, but Miller is more valuable in a role where he can be plugged in at opportune times, and Allen is plenty good enough to hold down the fort when his time comes. In five full seasons, Allen has had an ERA below 3.00 in all of them. He has saved 122 games while pitching to a 2.67 ERA. Whether it’s gone noticed or not, Allen has been even better in the playoffs. Over 19.1 postseason innings, Allen has allowed 1 earned run while striking out 33 batters.

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Corey Knebel

Based just upon last year, Knebel should maybe be several spots higher on this list. I’d like to see him do it for another year though, as he kind of came out of nowhere last year to be one of the very best closers in the game. Knebel was a first round pick, so there is reason to think he can possibly continue his dominance. However, before last year Knebel had a career ERA north of 4.00 along with a relatively high WHIP. He had struck out a good amount of batters, but not near the rate at which he did this past year.

Last season, Knebel saved 39 games for the Brewers while striking out just a tick under 15 batters per nine innings. Knebel’s ERA hovered around 1.00 for half the season before one poor game. He then didn’t allow a run in 21 of his next 22 appearances to get his ERA back in the low 1.00’s. He faded a little in the last week or two of the season, possibly tiring out as he pitched more than ever before. Knebel finished the season with a 1.78 ERA

Zach Britton

Heading into last year, Britton would have likely been in the top three of this list. After an injury plagued season, and one much worse than we have been accustomed to, Britton has some rebounding to do. Problem is, he is injured again and expected to miss half this season. He is also 30 years old now. All of that has him dropped, but I felt he still needed to be included based upon how dominant he has proven to be when healthy. Britton was a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2016, allowing just four earned runs over 67 innings pitched. He led the league with 47 saves that year along with his 0.54 ERA.

Over the three seasons prior to last year, Britton had a 1.38 ERA and 0.91 WHIP while saving 120 games. He was probably the best closer in the game during that three year stretch. Last year his WHIP skyrocketed to an unhealthy 1.53, though he still managed a 2.89 ERA due to his ground ball tendencies. Even if Britton comes back and shows some rust this season after missing half the year, I expect him to ultimately return to being a dominant closer again for a few years.

Honorable Mentions:

Edwin Diaz, Raisel Iglesias, Brad Hand, Wade Davis, Greg Holland

The Top Starting Pitchers in Baseball

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There have been some top 10’s circulating lately, with MLB Network posting their top 10 for 2018 at each position. Buster Olney also did a top 10 at each position, but his lists showed an immense New York bias and Red Sox hatred from the former Yankees reporter. Seeing his lists made me want to rectify them. Now, here’s where my list is different from MLB Network’s lists; I am not doing for just this season as they have been. Personally, I care more about who I would want on my favorite team rather than who will put up good numbers for just one season. With my lists, I will be taking age into consideration when determining the 10 best players at each position. So, whereas Justin Verlander might crack the top five best pitchers for 2018, he’s a fringe candidate for my top 10 list.

1. Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw, pretty clearly to me, is the best pitcher in baseball. What he has accomplished these past five to seven years is historic, and at just 29 years old he is already a top 10 left-handed pitcher of all-time in my book. From 2013-2016, Kershaw had an ERA below 2.00 in three of those four seasons. His WHIP has been under 1.00 in each of the past five seasons.

In these past seven years, Kershaw has a 118-41 win-loss record to go with a 2.10 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. During this remarkable run, he has never finished lower than 5th in the Cy Young vote; that fifth place finish was thanks to an injury. If Kershaw had not missed time that year he likely would have won his 4th Cy Young. As it stands, he has three of them along with two 2nd place finishes and an MVP Award.

If there is one thing that can keep Clayton Kershaw from being number one, it is injuries. Kershaw has missed some time the past couple seasons due to injury. The injuries haven’t been to his arm, but each of the last two years it has been a back injury that has forced him out. The fact that he has now had recurring issues with his back is of some concern. However, with how dominant he is, and just turning 30 this March, Kershaw still ranks number one in my book.

2. Max Scherzer

At 33, Scherzer is the old man of the lists, which makes me feel old. It doesn’t seem like that long ago I took him as a dark horse to win the AL Cy Young and he did. Since, Scherzer has developed into one of the very best in the game. Over the past five seasons, Scherzer has won 3 Cy Young Awards and placed in the top five in the other two. During that stretch, he is 89-33 with a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.9 strike outs per nine innings. Scherzer has also thrown two no-hitters and tied a Major League mark by striking out 20 batters in one game. He seems like he will contend for Cy Young Awards for a few more seasons, and that is good enough for me.

Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

3. Corey Kluber

I don’t think you can go wrong in an order for these top three pitchers. What Kluber has done while pitching in the American League could certainly warrant consideration for the top spot. Surprising to me, Kluber will be 32 this April, two years older than Kershaw despite beginning his career later. Kluber has really taken off the past four seasons, winning two Cy Young Awards and placing third in another year. He has led the league in wins twice, ERA once and WHIP once during that span. He has also struck out more batters than innings pitched in each of those seasons. Kluber rode a fantastic second half last season to his second Cy Young Award. With 1006 strike outs, a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past four seasons, it’s hard to argue with Kluber in any one of these top three spots.

4. Chris Sale

Sale is the first one who won’t be 30 by season’s end. However, as great as Sale is, he seems to be a notch behind the three above him. Nonetheless, what Sale has achieved is pretty amazing. Sale began his professional career as a relief pitcher, making just 11 appearances in the minors before a call up the same year he was drafted. He then made 79 relief appearances over his first two seasons. In his six seasons since as a starter, Sale has made six all-star teams and has never finished lower than sixth place in a Cy Young vote. He has a 3.01 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings during that time period.

After being acquired by the Red Sox last offseason, Sale struck out a career high 308 batters and led the league. This was the second time in his career that Sale had led the league in strike outs. The total helped Sale to a second place Cy Young finish behind Corey Kluber, the closest he has come to winning the award. One thing that could help Sale invade the ranks of the guys above him is finishing years stronger. Sale has a tendency to fade late in the year, with September being by far the worst month of his career historically.

Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner seems like he has been around for a while and thrown a ton of innings, but he is still only 28 years old. One of the best pitchers in baseball this decade, Bumgarner has a 3.01 career ERA. Before last season’s injury plagued year, he had posted an ERA under 3.00 in four consecutive seasons. His strike out rate had also been climbing during that stretch, peaking at 10 strike outs per nine in 2016.

Where Bumgarner really separates himself is in the postseason. Over 14 starts and 16 appearances during postseason play, Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 2.11 ERA. He elevates his game even further for the World Series, going 4-0 with a save in his five appearances. During those games, Bumgarner has allowed one run, just one, over 36 innings pitched. He has allowed an absurd 14 base hits during those 36 innings. He is the pitcher you want on the mound come playoffs.

Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo

6. Noah Syndergaard

“Thor”, as he has been called, has only pitched in parts of three seasons at the big league level. Last season was mostly a wasted season for him, only making seven starts due to injury. The fact he still comes in at six speaks volumes to the talent he has shown. Syndergaard’s average fastball this past season was 98.6 miles per hour! That’s just his average, not his top speed. His devastating slider sits in the low to mid-90’s, which is nearly unheard of for a breaking pitch. In 2016, his one full season to this point, Syndergaard had a 2.60 ERA and struck out 218 batters against just 43 walks. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.

7. Stephen Strasburg

Strasburg is the second Nationals player to make this list. One of the most hyped pitchers I have witnessed coming out of college, Strasburg has always been good, but never quite living up to expectations. Last season, seven years after his debut, Strasburg posted the best season of his career. He was 15-4 with a career low 2.52 ERA and 1.015 WHIP. Maybe he is learning what it takes to fully tap into all that potential. His biggest pitfall has been injuries. Strasburg blew out his arm in just his second professional season and hasn’t made 30 starts in any of the last three seasons.

8. Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel doesn’t get enough recognition from the media and public because he isn’t a flashy strike out pitcher. However, all he does is get outs, and a lot of them come on the ground. Since Keuchel broke out four years ago, he has struck out 7.6 batters per nine innings. That total was pretty decent in the nineties, but nowadays it barely registers on the radar. It doesn’t matter though, Keuchel has posted an ERA below 3.00 in three of the last four seasons. In 2015 he won the Cy Young Award after going 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA. Last year he may have contended for the award again had it not been for injury. On June 2nd, when he went down with the injury, Keuchel was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA. He missed nearly two months and had a few rocky outings after returning.

9. Luis Severino

At 23 years old, Severino is the youngest one on my list. He will be 24 by month’s end, and his inclusion here is a nod to his age and the promise he has shown. Before the 2015 seasons, Baseball America rated Severino as the 35th best prospect in baseball. After dominating AAA he showed promise in 11 starts at the big league level. To the delight of Red Sox fans, he was a mess the following season, going 3-8 with a very high ERA and WHIP. However, Severino fixed whatever was wrong and came back stronger than ever last season. While pitching in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums, Severino went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings.

10. Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco, although highly thought of, also seems to fly just a little under the radar. After being a good prospect as far back as a decade ago, Carrasco took some time to find his footing. Since his breakout in 2014 though, he has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. I gave him the nod at the tenth spot over a couple National Leaguers because his numbers are similar while pitching in a tougher league. Turning 31 just before the start of this coming season, Carrasco should have plenty of years left in his arm. Over the past four seasons he has a 3.24 ERA and a stellar 1.08 WHIP. Carrasco has also struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings and is coming off a career high 226 strike outs this past season.

Honorable Mentions:

Jacob DeGrom, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke

 

Featured picture taken from SI.com

The Worst Red Sox Ever

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https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/12/worst-starting-pitchers-red-sox-history

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/12/worst-relief-pitchers-red-sox-history

 

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/12/worst-catchers-red-sox-history

 

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/12/worst-first-basemen-red-sox-history

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https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2018/01/worst-shortstops-red-sox-history

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The Greatest Red Sox

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https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/10/best-starting-pitchers-red-sox-history-right-handed

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/best-starting-pitchers-red-sox-history-left-handed

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/best-relief-pitchers-red-sox-history

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/best-catchers-red-sox-history

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/red-sox-greatest-first-basemen-ever

https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/red-sox-greatest-second-basemen

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https://bostonsportsextra.com/boston-red-sox/2017/11/greatest-shortstops-red-sox-history

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Red Sox Best Free Agent Signings

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Free agency this winter has been colder than the temperatures outside. Those baseball fans among us are starving for action and something to talk about. Hopefully the team is drawing near, as Spring Training is just around the corner. But, with free agency currently lulling us all to sleep, I decided to take a look at some of the best free agent signings the Red Sox have ever made.

David Ortiz

Big Papi is in a class all by himself. The Red Sox picked up Ortiz cheap after the Twins mistakenly dumped him. I remember thinking it was odd the Twins let him go and was happy to see the Sox bring him aboard, but obviously no one knew what would come of it. Ortiz had homered twenty times the year before in a part-time role and eighteen times the year before that. The Red Sox signed Ortiz for just 1.25 million dollars. The rest, as they say, is history.

Ortiz blossomed in Fenway and turned into maybe the most popular and beloved Red Sox of all-time. There are too many instances to cite; all the game-winning hits, the postseason heroics, David Ortiz is a living legend. He hit 483 home runs with the Red Sox. In several decades, people will tell of his heroic feats and some will wonder if half of them really happened. All he did was that unbelievable, that legendary. In several years Cooperstown should be opening its doors to him. When they do, the entire city of Boston and a large portion of the states in New England will try to get tickets and descend upon the tiny town, trying to watch the lovable Papi become enshrined.

In 2013, Ortiz came to the forefront, not for his baseball heroics, but for a motivational speech he gave following the Boston Marathon bombing. This speech can still give chills nearly five years later. David Ortiz was, is, and will forever remain, a Boston hero.

Ortiz rallied the entire city behind him after the tragic marathon bombing in 2013.

The Big Money Signings

Manny Ramirez

Manny Ramirez could be a headache, and was put on the trade block multiple times, but all in all the signing paid off. He was given an eight year contract worth 160 million dollars by the Red Sox before the 2001 season. Despite the problems he could cause, and “Manny being Manny”, Ramirez helped the Red Sox win two World Series and was the MVP of the curse breaker in 2004. That series he batted .412 to win the award. In four postseasons with the Red Sox he batted .321 with eleven home runs. In regular season play, Manny hit .312 with 274 home runs and a .999 OPS.

Manny Ramirez of the Red Sox celebrates after connecting for a three-run home run to defeat the Angels, 6-3 in Game 2 of the ALDS. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Johnny Damon

The Red Sox signed Johnny Damon to a four year deal worth 31 million dollars before the 2002 season. Damon batted .295 in his four seasons with Boston, making two All-Star Games. He stole 30 bases in each of his first two seasons, then hit 20 homers in his third season. Damon helped the Red Sox break the curse in 2004, helping the band of “idiots” overcome the “evil empire.” Damon hit two huge home runs in game seven of the ALCS that season to defeat the Yankees en route to the World Series. He may have cut off all his hair and gone to the Yankees, transforming from Jesus into the Antichrist, but during his deal he was certainly worth the money.

Keith Foulke

After the bullpen struggled in 2003, the Red Sox went out and signed closer Keith Foulke to a three year deal worth 18.75 million. He earned every penny of the entire deal in 2004 and embedded himself into Red Sox lore. After pitching to a 2.17 ERA and saving 32 games that season, Foulke became a postseason hero. With the team down 0-3 to the Yankees in the ALCS, needing a win to avoid the sweep, Foulke pitched 2.2 shutout innings to keep the game alive. He then pitched each of the next two days to help the Red Sox force a game seven. After winning the series, Foulke pitched in all four World Series games and recorded the unforgettable final out.

Bargain Contracts

Bill Mueller

Bill Mueller was a cheap signing heading into the 2003 season to handle the hot corner. Signed to a three year deal worth only 6.7 million dollars in total, Mueller was worth more than that in just the first season. He led the American League in hitting that year, batting .326 with 19 home runs, 45 doubles and a .938 OPS. That was a career year for Mueller, but he still batted .290 over the next two seasons. Mueller of course also had the base hit to score Dave Roberts, sending game four of the ALCS in 2004 to extra innings. Mueller batted .321 that postseason as the Red Sox won their first World Series in 86 years.

Adrian Beltre

Beltre was a big name, but came to Boston on a relatively cheap deal. After a down season in 2009, Beltre bet on himself to rebound and cash in with a larger contract the following season. The Red Sox were able to procure his services for 9 million dollars in 2010. Beltre proceeded to have the second best season of his career; he hasn’t stopped hitting since. Beltre to that point had been a decent third baseman, but somewhat disappointing. His season with the Red Sox started him on an epic second half of his career journey which is leading him to the baseball Hall of Fame. In his one season in Boston, Beltre batted .321 with 28 homers and led the league with 49 doubles.

Koji Uehara

Koji had always put up good numbers prior to coming to Boston, but had troubles staying healthy. The Red Sox initially gave him a two year deal worth 9.25 million dollars. Uehara stayed healthy and had an insanely dominant first season in Boston. In 2013, Uehara was 4-1 with a microscopic 1.09 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and saved 21 games. He then allowed one run in 13.2 innings pitched during the postseason as the Red Sox won the World Series. Koji was the MVP of the ALCS that year. Uehara ended up spending four seasons in Boston, posting a 2.19 ERA and 79 saves.

Off the Scrap Heap

Tim Wakefield

Wakefield burst onto the scene in 1992 with the Pirates, going 8-1 with a 2.15 ERA. The fall was quick though and Wakefield was back in the minor leagues for part of the next season and the entire 1994 season. The Pirates released him before the 1995 season started. Just under a week later, the Red Sox decided to nab Wakefield off the scrap heap and give his knuckleball a try. One thing Dan Duquette was good at was picking up players no one else wanted and getting success out of them.

Wakefield stayed in Boston for 17 years, pitching in every role imaginable. He won 186 games, good for third on the franchise’s all-time list. He was a fan favorite and still works with the team today, showing up on NESN often throughout the year to do studio work. Not a bad pickup.

Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox starts against the New York Yankees March 13, 2009 at City of Palms Park in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

Luis Tiant

Tiant had been a successful pitcher in Cleveland in the sixties, even leading the league with a 1.60 ERA while winning 21 games in 1968. His career had fallen on hard times before coming to Boston however. Tiant missed half the season in 1970 and had yet to pitch when the Braves released him in May 1971. With Tiant a free agent, the Red Sox decided to take a chance on him and his injured arm. The move didn’t pay off immediately, as he was 1-7 the rest of that season. However, the dividends down the road were immense.

Tiant went on to have an excellent career with the Red Sox and become a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. I listed Tiant as one of the Red Sox five greatest right-handed pitchers ever a few months ago. By 1972, Tiant led the American League with a 1.91 ERA. He’d win 20 games as a member of the Red Sox three times, winning 122 total in parts of eight seasons. He also went 3-0 in the 1975 postseason with a 2.65 ERA.

Rich Garces

The lovable “El Guapo” is the third “scrap heap” free agent signing. Listed at a generous 250 pounds, (it was probably closer to 300), Garces looked like he belonged anywhere but playing professional sports. Garces pitched seven seasons for the Red Sox and developed into one of their more reliable relief pitchers. Between 1990 and 1995, Garces had only appeared in 26 Major League outings, a number he eclipsed in 1996 alone with the Sox. Garces’ best season came in 1999 when he put up a 1.55 ERA. Starting with that season, Garces won 19 games against just 3 losses over a three year stretch.

Rich Garces of the Red Sox pitches during a Spring Training game against the Rangers in Fort Myers, Florida. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bahr /Allsport

Red Sox Who Could Crack Baseball America’s Top 100 in 2019

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When Baseball America released its top 100 list on Monday, the Red Sox only had two farmhands make the list. In recent years, the farm system has produced more than just two players on the list, and usually several much higher on the list. Jason Groome was the highest ranked Red Sox prospect at number 83. This was the lowest a Red Sox top prospect has shown up on this list since Dernell Stenson in 2001. This isn’t to say all hope is lost down on the farm. The other day I wrote about the two players who made the list, and the Red Sox have plenty of other intriguing names for the future. They may not be Yoan Moncada or Michael Kopech, but they have a few guys who could threaten to crack the top 100 list in 2019.

The Most Likely

Bryan Mata

Mata is an 18 year old who was signed out of Venezuela in 2016. He is very refined for such a young kid, being rated as having the best control in the Red Sox farm system by Baseball America. Oftentimes control is something that gets better with age, so for someone so young to be graded so highly is rare.

Mata is more than just a control pitcher, throwing in the low to mid-90’s as a teenager. One would assume he will add some velocity as he reaches his 20’s and fills out more. Currently he is very skinny and will need to bulk up to withstand a full season, but there is plenty of time to do that. Once he does fill out more it would not be surprising to see him sit in the mid-90’s with his fastball. Mata also throws a curveball and a changeup. These offerings show potential but both have some work to do. He more than held his own last year at Greenville, a level not usually reached by someone his age. At just 18, Mata is far advanced for his age and could make the top 100 next year with continued improvement.

Tanner Houck

Houck was the Red Sox 1st round pick this past season, so it would be nice to see a strong year from him to elevate him into Baseball America’s top 100. Coming out of Missouri, Houck has a great pitcher’s frame, standing at 6’5″ 220. His fastball velocity has a wide range, but can reach as high as 98 MPH. The pitch has good sink to it and no doubt can play at the Major League level. How far he gets will rely on his secondary pitches and his refinement. He has the body to be a workhorse, but if he fizzles out as a starter he has the stuff to be a late innings reliever.

Houck has the best slider in the Red Sox system according to Baseball America; a third pitch will be key in his development. Throwing from a 3/4 arm slot, Houck reminds me some of Justin Masterson. Masterson was a high pick by the Red Sox who had a heavy sink on his pitches and a good slider. It was up in the air whether he would be a starter or a reliever in the majors; he ultimately did some of both. Masterson never really developed another reliable pitch to maintain his successes, so hopefully Houck can add a reliable third pitch.

Right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck pitches against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Taylor Stadium (Tim Nwachukwu)

Josh Ockimey

Ockimey is a big first baseman with excellent raw power. Ockimey can put on displays of power in batting practice, but the home runs haven’t come in abundance yet in games. Often, that comes later with development. A lot of guys hit for more power once they reach the majors than they ever did in the minors. Take a look at Aaron Judge, who never hit more than 20 home runs in any season despite having a huge projection of power. At present, it’s more important that Ockimey keeps his batting eye and shows the ability to hit well enough to keep advancing.

Ockimey hit 18 home runs two years ago, but after a fast start his bat went ice cold and he finished the season with a .226 batting average. Despite such a low average, he got on base at a very respectable .364 clip thanks to his 88 walks. This is what I believe can help him become a regular at the big league level if he shows he can hit enough. With power and a great batting eye he could be a valuable player even if he batted .240. Last season he was able to bat .274 with a .385 on base percentage between two levels. Starting in AA Portland this year, if Ockimey can keep his average and walks in line with that he could crack the top 100 next season. There is still a wide range of possible scenarios for him, but he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.

Photo credit: Kelly O’Connor

If Things Fall Right

Mike Shawaryn

Shawaryn was a potential first round pick after his sophomore season at Maryland. That season he went 13-2 with a 1.71 ERA. After battling some injuries his junior season, Shawaryn fell to the 5th round. He had still performed well though, posting a 3.18 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Shawaryn has continued to produce in the Minor Leagues, posting an ERA below 4.00 at all three levels. Last year was his first full season and he struck out 169 batters over 135 innings between two levels. If he can show similar results this year he should have a chance to make the list in 2019.

Bobby Dalbec

Dalbec took a step back this year after looking like one of the Red Sox top hitting prospects the year before. Dalbec both pitched and hit well in college, and could always give pitching a shot if hitting fails him. Before that though, he will see if he can rebound. Dalbec has big power, so if he can hit the ball more consistently he could develop into a Major Leaguer down the road. He batted .386 with 7 home runs in Lowell two years ago after being drafted in the 4th round. Last year he fell off to .246, although he did post a .345 on base percentage.

Right now, there is too much swing and miss to his game, if he can cut back on the strike outs his power might be able to play up more. If that happens, maybe Dalbec has a Michael Chavis type breakout this season. If that happened, along with his strong arm from third base Dalbec would certainly join the top 100 next year. The range of outcomes on him is large.

Photo by Peter Aiken

Dark Horse Candidates

Cole Brannen

Brannen was the Red Sox second round draft pick last season out of high school. He would likely need to have a strong showing this season to gain consideration from Baseball America since he is so young and not yet in full season ball. Brannen doesn’t have much power but projects to hit for good averages and is a speedy outfielder.

Alex Scherff

Another draft pick of the Red Sox last season, Scherff was a 5th round pick out of high school. He could have been a higher pick, but fell due to concerns over whether he would sign or go to college. Scherff already throws in the mid-90’s, occasionally reaching the upper 90’s. He will have to dominate low-A hitters this season to have a shot at the Baseball America top 100 next year.

Darwinzon Hernandez

Hernandez’ fastball was rated as the best in the system by Baseball America. Hernandez was 20 years old last season pitching in full season Greenville. He struck out over a batter per inning while showing off good stuff. If he can gain more consistency with his secondary offerings he could make a huge leap this coming season.

Roldani Baldwin

Baldwin is a lesser known Red Sox prospect who comes in all the way down at number 32 on sox prospects. Signed out of the Dominican back in 2014, Baldwin is still only 21 years old. Last season at Greenville he batted .274 with an impressive .489 slugging percentage. He shows good pop, hitting 14 home runs and 35 doubles in 368 at-bats last year. Oh, did I mention he was a catcher? Converted back to the position for last year, Baldwin threw out one-third of potential base stealers while showing the ability to play backstop. He might be a longshot to make the top 100 next year, but he is an intriguing dark horse to watch behind the plate moving forward.

Roldani Baldwin swinging (Bryan Green)

Featured picture from Over the Monster.

Two Red Sox in Baseball America Top 100 Prospects

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Baseball America released its annual top 100 prospects list Monday. If you go searching for Red Sox, it might take you awhile. The Red Sox have two of their prospects included on the list, and both are in the bottom twenty. What happened to the Red Sox system you might ask? Well, they traded away a lot of their young assets, but most of the deals have worked out. Some of them were dealt to Chicago for staff ace Chris Sale, others were sent to San Diego for Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz. Others are just no longer eligible, as Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers are on the big club. The Red Sox still have plenty of young talent, as for the farm system; let’s take a look at the two who made the list.

Jason Groome

Groome, unsurprisingly, is the highest Red Sox on the list. What is a bit surprising is him coming in as low as eighty-third on that list. Groome was a top prospect coming into the 2016 draft, some places even ranked him as the best eligible player in the draft. He fell to the Red Sox at twelfth, presumably due to signability issues and minor character concerns. The Red Sox got a bargain, having arguably the best talent in the draft slip to them at twelve. And as a left-handed pitcher with ace potential that was like striking gold.

Groome is a big kid, standing at 6’6″ 220. At just nineteen years old, he has room to add to his frame and maybe pick up a couple of ticks on his fastball velocity, which already reaches the mid-90’s. There is no real concern over his body, as it is a great size to withstand the rigors of pitching all season long and approaching 200 innings a year. Groome also has the makings of a devastating curveball, which Keith Law said was the best in the entire 2016 draft class and one of the best he had ever seen from a high schooler.

Work Left to Do

Groome still has work to do; he is only nineteen years old after all. He needs to work on his mechanics and his control as he walked 4.9 batters per nine innings last season. Groome also needs to improve his changeup to give himself a reliable third pitch. It is hard to make it as a starter in the big leagues with only two pitches, so the development of a third pitch is key. He has the talent to do so, pitching in high school there was no need for him to ever throw a changeup because no one could hit his fastball and curveball. With some work, I expect his changeup to become at least adequate with time.

The reason Groome likely slips to number eighty-three on the prospects list is due to his disappointing 2017 campaign. In all fairness to Groome, he was injured right out of the gate and played catch up for most of the year. Groome took a shellacking in his debut at Greenville and didn’t pitch again for over two months. He made three rehab starts at Lowell, finishing up with a five inning no-hitter. After making it back to Greenville Groome showed inconsistency, pitching a couple stellar games but also exhibiting his control problems in others. He was just 3-7 with a 6.70 ERA at Greenville, but throwing out that first start in which he was injured, the ERA comes down to 5.02. For a positive, Groome struck out 11.77 batters per nine innings at the level.

Moving Forward

A good sign for Groome’s development is he worked out with Chris Sale in the offseason. The Red Sox top prospect, a left-hander, taking the initiative to work out with fellow left-hander and staff ace can only be a good thing. I think if Groome can enter this season healthy he will show a lot more of his potential and show why he was so highly though of out of high school. He has already shown the ability to miss plenty of bats, I think he will put that to better use this season. With it, Groome should fly up the prospect rankings by season’s end. If things go well, he may even threaten the top twenty next year.

Groome grew up a Red Sox fan despite living in New Jersey surrounded by Yankees fans.

Michael Chavis

Chavis came in at eighty-fifth on the prospects list, just two spots lower than Groome. As the top power bat in the Red Sox system, Chavis got a lot of attention last season. A first round pick back in 2014, Chavis struggled adjusting to pro ball. Chavis started in Greenville in 2015 and only batted .223. The only positive of his debut were the sixteen home runs he hit. At just twenty years old the Red Sox had Chavis repeat the level in 2016, and it didn’t go any better. For a first round pick, Michael Chavis was certainly not living up to expectations.

2017

Chavis entered the season last year at twenty-one years old. He also opened the season with high-A Salem, a team he had only played for briefly towards the end of the 2016 season. Chavis showed immense improvement, not only hitting for power, but for average as well. In 223 at-bats with Salem, Chavis hit .318 with seventeen long balls and a 1.029 OPS. He was beginning to show why the Red Sox had made him a first round draft pick three years earlier.

The performance earned Chavis a mid-season callup to AA Portland. Although his bat slowed some, Chavis still exhibited the power potential he had shown in Salem earlier in the year. His average dropped to .250 in Portland, but he still managed a nice .802 OPS. In 248 at-bats he added fourteen more home runs for the Sea Dogs, giving him thirty-one on the season between the two levels. Playing in the Arizona Fall League, Chavis’ numbers remained in line with what he had done in Portland, batting .261 with four home runs and an .805 OPS. Thirty-five home runs in 563 at-bats is a nice year’s work.

Chavis batting with the Portland Sea Dogs.

What’s To Come

Can Chavis be the hitter he was in Salem, hitting for a good average and power? Or will he be a power hitter who struggles to make contact and hit for a mediocre average? The evidence so far leads me to believe he will be closer to the player we saw in Portland then the one with Salem. Hey, there’s a market for power bats, it’s not a bad thing. Even when going well, Chavis has some swing and miss to his game and hasn’t walked a ton. Last year he drew 39 walks against 113 strike outs. It would be nice to see him walk more by the time he makes it to the Major Leagues. Then again, sometimes guys hit the ball with more authority when they have an aggressive approach.

Chavis’ defense at third base is a little questionable, but if Rafael Devers shows improvement at the hot corner the Red Sox are set there for years to come. The ultimate home for Chavis on the diamond might be at first base, where the Red Sox don’t have anyone locked up past 2019. With Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez back in the fold, the Sox shouldn’t need Chavis this year. They even have Sam Travis, who Baseball America rated as the Red Sox seventh best prospect. With another season like 2017, he might force his way up for 2019, but he needs to focus on continual improvement to his game first. Chavis has some work to put in down on the farm, as Major League pitchers will do a better job finding the holes in his swing and exploiting his weaknesses.

 

Feature picture from Baseball Hot Corner