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Meet Matt Barnes: Red Sox Closer

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When news crackled off the wire that the Red Sox had signed Jenrry Mejia it was confirmed: The Red Sox payroll problems are real, and they’re spectacular. The only relief help walking through that door is the thrice failed, suspended-for-life, then reinstated kind. While wandering eyes look for a free agent, there’s a stalwart right in front of us. Matt Barnes is the most reliable, time tested, experienced, and talented holdover whose time has come. Matt Barnes should be The Closer for the Red Sox.

Slow and steady wins the race

Let’s be honest: If Craig Kimbrel would sign a two year, $20 million deal he would be the closer. But he’s worth more, and the Red Sox won’t pay him. So we have Barnes.

Ryan Brasier came out of nowhere to deliver last year. But the book on him is still being written. You better believe the hitters will catch up with him this year. Then there is Matt Barnes.

Check out his three year progression in ERA/WHIP/K per 9/Ground Ball %:

  • 2016: 4.05/1.395/9.6/46%
  • 2017: 3.88/1.220/10.7/49%
  • 2018: 3.65/1.265/14.0/53%

Unlike Brasier, or even Thornburg, Barnes forged his record in the crucible of the AL East. Sure, he walks a few, that’s why his WHIP isn’t closer to 1.0, but his progression is one of an artist honing his craft. He has steadily produced more strikeouts and ground balls. That is the special sauce that creates a successful pitcher.

Opportunity

With the Red Sox looking down the barrel of paying Mookie, and the prospect of Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, and Martinez becoming free agents after 2019, there is scant money left for the bullpen. Tyler Thornburg is coming off injury, Ryan Brasier is new, Durbin Feltman is untested. Matt Barnes has worked his way up to being the set up guy last year. He has been doubted and ridiculed, passed over for starters in the postseason despite pitching lights out.

The time is now for Matt Barnes to become the Red Sox closer.

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A Cheaper Closing Option

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As the Red Sox struggle to avoid massive penalties from the luxury tax, the question of who will be the team’s closer remains. Many of the top free agent relief pitchers have already been signed. Craig Kimbrel is still on the market, but the contract he would command would be much larger than the Red Sox will go. Ideally, the Red Sox could find a cheap closing option to avoid even stiffer penalties than they already face.

The Early Years

Greg Holland was once one of the most dominant late-inning bullpen options in the game. His rookie season of 2011 he went 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The next season he went 7-4 and saved 16 games as he morphed into the closer’s role in Kansas City.

Over the next two seasons, Holland was as good as anyone. Between 2013 and 2014 he saved 93 games. He had a 1.32 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over that two year stretch and struck out 13.4 batters per nine innings. The results were staggering.

Holland faded a bit in 2015 but still put up serviceable numbers. It was then revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery, which may have explained some of his drop-off in production.

Post Tommy John Surgery

The days of Holland being one of the best closer’s in baseball may be a thing of the past, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good one. Fresh off his Tommy John Surgery and missing the entire 2016 season, Holland signed with the Colorado Rockies. Probably not the best place to sign for someone coming off an arm surgery. Nevertheless, Holland was an All-Star for them.

In 2017, Holland led the National League with 41 games saved. He had a solid 1.15 WHIP and 11 strike outs per nine innings. Not quite what he was in his best years, but certainly effective. His ERA of 3.61 doesn’t tell the whole story. At the end of July, after four months of pitching, Holland had a 1.64 ERA. Opponents were batting just .169 against him with a .268 on-base percentage and .262 slugging percentage. His numbers weren’t far off from his dominant seasons.

Holland was far more hittable from that point forward, but you must remember, he hadn’t pitched in over a year following surgery. On top of that, he was pitching in Coors Field and the high altitude of Denver, Colorado. The high altitude has been known to put extra stress on a pitcher’s arm. He likely was just running out of a gas.

The Ups and Downs of 2018

2018 tells the story of why Holland can likely be had on the cheap. He turned down the Rockies contract offer and hit the open market. Many players remained unsigned late into the offseason, and it seemed to affect the pitcher’s the most. Holland did not sign until March 31st, missing the entire Spring Training. This likely threw him out of whack and had a huge detriment on his pitching.

Holland was a total disaster for the Cardinals. Over 25 innings he walked as many batters as he struck out (22). He was extremely hittable, allowing 12.2 hits per nine innings. His previous career high since his 15-game stint in 2010 was under eight hits per nine. His ERA and WHIP were unsightly, at 7.92 and 2.24. Nothing went right in St. Louis. As a result, he was ultimately released on August 1st.

When the Nationals picked him up on the cheap later that month, they got the Holland of old. In 24 appearances in DC, Holland allowed just two runs on nine hits. He was 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10.5 strike outs per nine innings. Those results are much more what people had come to expect from Greg Holland. Leading us into this offseason, where he comes off a mixed bag of a season.

Greg Holland of the Washington Nationals pitches in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on August 17, 2018(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Conclusion

Is Holland going to be one of the best closers in all of baseball? No, probably not. But he was still an All-Star and led the league in saves just two years ago. After not having a normal offseason, and no spring training last year, he did not have a peak performance. However, with a change of scenery, he looked like the Greg Holland he used to be. Therefore, it would seem likely that if he were to sign a contract earlier in the offseason this year, that team would likely be getting a good pitcher for the back end of their bullpen.

Currently, the Red Sox don’t have anyone with closing experience on their roster. The top candidates on the roster to close at the moment appear to be either Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier. Barnes has been a relatively effective setup man, but he isn’t one of the best in the game. Brasier on the other hand has very little experience, and was on the verge of retirement last offseason. The Red Sox could use a guy with experience on the team, and Holland could maybe be just as good as Craig Kimbrel was last year for far less money.

Holland is likely searching for a one-year deal to restore his value. He will want to have a good season and enter free agency again next offseason coming off a good year, looking for one final big payday. The Red Sox should jump.

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Forget Kimbrel, Sign Kelvin Herrera

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Mainly due to a lack of suiters, there is plenty of speculation that Craig Kimbrel is bound to come back to the Red Sox. But Kimbrel’s weaknesses haven’t disappeared. He will still be pricey, even at a reduced rate. Kelvin Herrera, however, is also sitting out there. And his experience and value could be priceless to the Sox.

Injury History

One reason Kelvin Herrera is still available is his injury history. He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well. From the looks of it, things are on track:

Beyond his foot surgery, Herrera had a right shoulder impingement in August of last year. That was actually good news. He was traded from the Royals in the first place in part due to his mysterious shoulder problems. Knowing it was an impingement provides a clear method of treatment going forward. He would not be throwing ‘light toss’ if he was still suffering.

Performance

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He will only be 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters of all the relievers that are and were available in free agency.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 innings, which is the lowest of all comparisons in the top tier.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K. His three year ERA in the regular season is 3.15.

His postseason performance is almost Rivera-esq. His postseason ERA is 1.26 in 28.2 innings. That includes a minuscule 1.081 WHIP and 11.9 K/9. He turns it up when the lights are brightest, a perfect fit for the Sox.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

The Greatest Red Sox Legends by Uniform Number: 46-50

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The players stay strong as we move through the end of the forties and into the fifties.  The best players to wear the uniform numbers between 46 and 50 all played key roles on some good Red Sox teams.  One is the franchise all-time leader in games pitched, another is the franchise leader in innings pitched.  Take a look.

Number 46 – Bob Stanley

Born in Portland, Maine, Bob Stanley spent 13 seasons with the Red Sox, and is the franchise leader in games pitched with 637.  He started a healthy amount the first few seasons of his career before moving full-time to the bullpen (aside from 1987).

1978 was Stanley’s second season in the bigs, and he had an excellent year.  Stanley was 15-2 with a 2.60 ERA and saved 10 games on that famous team.  The next year he made 30 starts, made the All-Star Game, and won 16 games.  In 1980 he won 10 games and saved 14, while pitching to a 3.39 ERA.  He was 49-29 with a 3.55 ERA and 28 saves after four seasons, making 63 starts and 122 more relief appearances.

Moving to the pen, Stanley won 22 games over the next two seasons.  Becoming the full-time closer in 1983, Stanley saved 33 games and made his second all-star team.  From 1981-85, working in relief, Stanley had a 3.20 ERA and saved 79 games while winning 45.  He had a mediocre 1986, and despite not allowing a run in 6.1 innings in the World Series, he is remembered very negatively for his crucial wild pitches in game six.

The Red Sox oddly moved Stanley back to the rotation in 1987 after six years of relief work; it did not go well.  Stanley was 4-15 with a 5.01 ERA.  With the experiment over, Stanley had one more good season in him, going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA over 101.2 innings in 1988.  In total, he won 115 games, and saved 132, over his 13 seasons in Boston.

Honorable Mentions: Craig Kimbrel, Jacoby Ellsbury (2007-09)

Number 47 – Bruce Hurst

Bruce Hurst was a solid pitcher for the Sox in the eighties.  He had an excellent 1986, and was good in 1988, but aside from that was largely average before going to San Diego.  With that said, he is easily the best number 47 in team history.

Hurst spent some time with the Sox in 1980, but didn’t do much before 1983.  He was 7-9 with a 6.17 ERA by the end of 1982.  At age 25 he made some strides, going 12-12, and throwing over 200 innings in 1983.  He was 12-12 again in 1984, and got his ERA below 4.00 for the first time, despite a very high 1.47 WHIP.  His strike outs and WHIP improved in 1985, but his ERA rose back up.  Over that three-year stretch, he was 35-37 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Hurst had his best season yet in 1986.  He was 13-8 over 25 starts that year, posting an excellent 2.99 ERA.  He then went 3-0 in the postseason, including 2-0 in the World Series.  Had the bullpen not choked away game six, Hurst may have won World Series MVP.  Hurst won 15 games in 1987, and made his first All-Star Game despite a high ERA (his ERA was much better in the first half).  1988 would be the final season of his Red Sox career, and he posted a career best 18-6 record.  Hurst placed fifth in the Cy Young vote with his 3.66 ERA and 18 wins.

He was largely much better towards the end of his time with the Sox, going 46-27 with a 3.76 ERA over the final three seasons.  In total, he won 88 games as a Red Sox, and posted a 4.23 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Honorable Mentions: Rod Beck, Jason Varitek (1997-99)

Number 48 – Lee Smith

The recent Hall of Famer did more of his work with the Cubs than anyone else, but his two-plus seasons with the Sox contributed to his case.  Acquired in the offseason between 1987 and 1988 for Al Nipper and World Series goat Calvin Schiraldi, Smith was brought in to give the team a legitimate closer.

Smith’s first season with the team he had a 2.80 ERA and struck out over 10 batters per nine innings.  His 29 saves were the most by a Red Sox since Bob Stanley’s 33 in 1983.  In 1989 he was 6-1 and saved 25 games.  His 12.2 strike outs per nine innings pitched was the highest of the Hall of Famer’s career.

The Red Sox curiously acquired another closer in the offseason in Jeff Reardon.  This seemed to spell something was amiss. S mith had a 1.88 ERA and four saves early that season, before being dealt to the Cardinals for Tom Brunansky on May 4th.

Honorable Mentions: Javier Lopez, Tony Fossas, Scott Atchison

Number 49 – Tim Wakefield

The franchise’s all-time leader in starts and innings pitched, as well as some less desirable categories, Tim Wakefield is the only 49.  Picked up off the scrap heap in 1995, Wakefield had an epic season for the Sox.  He was 16-8 with a 2.95 ERA, finishing third in the Cy Young vote.  He started the year 14-1 with a magical 1.65 ERA, before teams started squaring up his knuckleball late in the year.  That was the start of a 17-year run in Boston for Wakefield, including two World Series championships.

Wakefield was a serviceable starter over the next few seasons, and won 17 games in 1998.  The following four seasons would be split between starting and relieving.  He made 17 starts three straight years from 1999-2001, and 15 starts in 2002.  Wakefield even saved 15 games in 1999 as he proved he could perform many roles.  2002 was his best season since his first in Boston, going 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Wakefield moved back to the rotation in 2003 and had a solid season.  He was then excellent in the postseason before an ending that never should have happened.  He threw a career high 225.1 innings in 2005, and won 16 games, his most since 1998.  In 2007 he matched his career high with 17 wins.  Proving, at the age of 40, the knuckleball is ageless.  In 2009 he finally made his first all-star team, going 11-3 by the break.

After pitching two more seasons, Wakefield got to 200 career wins, 186 of them coming for Boston.  That total sits him third on the franchise list behind Roger Clemens and Cy Young.  He pitched in every role for the team, and proved himself a valuable commodity both on the field and as a teammate.

Number 50 – Mookie Betts

Who other than the MVP would be number 50?  Betts is the cornerstone of this current Sox team and coming off an MVP season.  At 26 years old he is already a three-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner, a two-time Silver Slugger, an MVP, a batting champion and a World champion.  Not too shabby.

Betts showed his potential immediately in 2014, batting .291 for the Sox in a season that began in AA.  The next year he batted .291 again, hitting 42 doubles, eight triples and 18 home runs.  Betts broke out in 2016, and nearly won the MVP, finishing second to Mike Trout.  He had 214 hits as he batted .318 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases.

Despite 2017 being a down year, Betts still homered 24 times and drove in 102 runs.  He doubled 46 times and stole 26 bases in 29 tries.  With a new hitting coach and new manager this past year, as well as some much-needed lineup protection, Betts put together a historic season.  He has now doubled over 40 times in all four of his full Major League seasons, giving him 189 total.  He has hit 110 home runs, as well as stolen 110 bases.  The future is bright for the always smiling Mookie Betts.

 

 

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MLB Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

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The 2018 Baseball Winter Meetings have ended.  Here is a Red Sox focused roundup, and other related notes.

Rule Changes

Before the meetings, there was a lot of buzz about a pitch clock to speed up the game.  Once the meetings began it was all about The Shift.

https://twitter.com/megrowler/status/1073012029437296640

2018 resulted in a league wide .248 batting average, the lowest since 1972.  Singles are also in a five years decline.  Apparently, according to Jason Stark of the Athletic, the Commissioner, owners, batters, and pitchers are all for shift reform.

Of course there’s backlash.  People are decrying unintended consequences.  The debate rages on.

Eovaldi’s Back

The Red Sox led off the Winter Meetings by agreeing with Nathan Eovaldi for 4 years and $67.5 Million.  It seemed like a reasonable deal at the time.  Little did we know something like this would happen, seemingly within hours of the signing becoming official:

The Red Sox Crying Poor Mouth

https://twitter.com/SportsRaid365/status/1072984889681698817

Could this be true?

It seems incredible, with the Red Sox coming off a World Series title and raising ticket prices, that they need to clear salary space.  Dave Dombrowski threw some cold water on this story, but didn’t deny it.

A Red Sox Bullpen In Flux

Early this morning, new broke that Fightin’ Joe Kelly is going west.

Kelly was one of the stalwarts of a transformed bullpen, that turned into a bunch of vintage Ecks, in the 2018 playoffs.  With Kelly gone, could a reunion that seemed impossible happen?

It seems incredible, with reports of Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal for nine figures, that he could come back.  Apparently, the Red Sox are playing chicken and waiting for the price to come down.

Other than Kelly and Jeurys Familia, more on him in a minute, the reliever market has been quiet.  The Sox probably need two more relievers this off-season.

2019 Lineup Changes

Mookie has been known to resist moving out of the leadoff spot, and he can be stubborn, so Cora is planting the seed early.

It makes sense to move the more powerful Betts behind Benintendi.  More RBIs for Mookie, a two-three of Mookie and JD is pretty formidable.  This will lead to a right handed heavy 2-3-4, with Xander behind JD Martinez or vice versa.

Not every lineup can have Papi and Manny back to back.

Too Many Catchers

The Red Sox having one too many catchers has been an open question for some time.  Alex Cora spoke about the possibility of a trade at the Winter Meetings:

The Winter Meetings were anti-climatic in terms of moves being made by the Red Sox.  But there was one team that lead off the Meetings with a bang:

The Mets Making Moves

They started by acquiring Cano and Diaz from the Mariners.  They ended the meetings by bringing back Jeurys Familia.

https://twitter.com/TheCouchGMs/status/1073202870646923264

The Red Sox have the assets to almost perfectly match up with the Mets.  If the Red Sox are truly considering moving Jackie Bradley, would the Mets consider a left handed bat in the outfield?  The Red Sox have extra catchers.

Noah Syndergaard is rumored to be available.  Stay tuned.

 

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Get Noah Syndergaard On The Red Sox

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The Mets are a little off their rocker, the Winter Meetings are coming up, and the Cardinals have stolen some National League thunder with the Paul Goldschmidt trade.  Nathan Eovaldi is back!  Now is the time for the Red Sox to strike.  Bring Noah Syndergaard to Boston.  A quick reminder:

The Mets

The Mets are in win-now mode with their strange reliance on 36 year old, recently PED suspended, Robinson Cano.  They also got Edwin Diaz in the deal.  He’s a young closer who’s only done it in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest.  Those guys are often inconsistent.  They’re also reportedly looking into trading for Corey Kluber, which is kind of nuts.  Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last few years.  But the reason he’s available from the Indians is because he is 33 and on the verge of a big payday.  His contract escalates, from $10 million to $17.5 million and beyond, the next few years.

When news of a Syndergaard trade first surfaced, the Mets were said to be looking to upgrade their farm system with a trade.  And why wouldn’t they?  Syndergaard will be the best bargain Ace in the game the next few years.  His injuries are overblown and his September was one to remember.

But something happened on the road to a competitive team and stacked farm system.  Potential trades aren’t bearing the kind of fruit the Mets thought they would get.  Let’s take a deep dive on some rumored deals.

The Padres

The most recent rumor from the MLB Network was a package of Manny Margot, Austin Hedges, and Mackenzie Gore.

Margot, whom the Red Sox gave to the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade, has been a classic good defense, no-so-good offense, center fielder.  In 2017 he hit .263 with a .721 OPS.  In 2018, after the league had a look at him, he hit .245 with a .675 OPS.  Think Jackie Bradley Jr without the hot streaks and superior defense.

Austin Hedges is a catcher with slightly above average power, and little else.  In 2017 he hit .214 with a .660 OPS, 2018 it was .231/.711.

Mackenzie Gore is a highly rated young pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts.  He also walks a lot of people.  Because of this, he had a middling 4.45 ERA in single A ball last year.

The Rockies

The Rockies have a lot of young pitching.  It may be just for show, but Assistant GM Zack Rosenthal told the MLB Network on Tuesday 12/4 that the Rockies are built on that young pitching and defense.  This is a team that hits missile after missile into the glorious Rocky Mountain air.  The team is also about to spend a record amount in arbitration on MVP candidate Nolan Arenado.  Arenado is not making that kind of money for his gold glove defense at third base.  He hit .297 with 36 Home Runs last year.

So what does this mean?  The Rockies may be deluding themselves into thinking their MVP candidates don’t matter and it’s all about the pitching.  More likely, they’re negotiating in the media to reduce their arbitration cases with their hitters.  But because of the money going to their hitters, they’re likely to keep the young starters they have.  The Red Sox don’t have that kind of young pitching.

The Red Sox

Rafael Devers is better than anyone the Padres or Rockies can or will throw at the Mets.

Margot is 24, Hedges is 26.  Devers is still the tender age of 22.  This precious youngster hit .284 with 10 home runs and a .819 OPS in part time play as a 20 year old in 2017, then .240 with 21 home runs and a .731 OPS last year.  Furthermore, Devers  hit .311 in the Postseason over his first 2 years, including 3 home runs and a .884 OPS in 45 at bats.

That’s special.  But he’s no Tony Conigliaro.  The beloved Tony C hit .290 with 24 home runs and an .883 OPS as a 19 year old, then .269 with 32 home runs and an .850 OPS as a 20 year old, then .265 with 28 home runs and an .817 OPS as a 21 year old.

Devers will be worth holding on to, but not transcendent.  That is why he’s worth giving up for the rare young, cost controlled monster, like Noah Syndergaard, who becomes available.

What’s more, the Mets need a catcher.  The Red Sox have a plethora.  Putting Christian Vazquez, whose Postseason success means his value may never be higher, in a trade would be ideal.  But the Sox could throw in Blake Swihart instead.  A combo of either Swihart or Vazquez, with Sandy Leon as backup, would be more than fine for the 2019 Red Sox.

If the Mets wants minor leaguers, give them some.  The Red Sox have a weak system, but Devers is younger than most of the highly touted minor leaguers in the game.  It would take less top young talent than some other teams.

Eovaldi Frees Things Up

And now that Nathan Eovaldi is back, the Sox are freed up to include Eduardo Rodriguez in the deal if they need to.  This gives the Red Sox more options.  They don’t need to give the Mets everything, but widens the possibilities of how a trade could look.

Syndergaard Solves The Contract Crunch

At the end of 2019 the Sox will have some choices to make.  Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts become free agents at that time.  Nathan Eovaldi’s contract is reported to be in the $17 million a year range.  All three of those other guys will cost more than that.

Then there is JD Martinez’s opt out.  He’s currently being paid $23.75 Million.   With his performance he will definitely be looking for a raise starting in 2020.

Noah Syndergaard is in arbitration.  He made $2.975 Million last year and, his projected earnings in 2019 are $5.9 Million.  If he becomes a top 10 starting pitcher in 2019, watch out.  Thor has three years of control left in arbitration.  He won’t approach $20 million in salary until 2021 at the earliest.

If Syndergaard is in Boston, there’s a lot more money for the rest of the team.

Time To Act

There are reports of the Mets talking with the Marlins about JT Realmuto.  They are itching to trade.  The competition for Syndergaard is falling away.  The Red Sox can solve the Mets catching problems.  Fire up the Knights of Cydonia and let’s rock this trade Dave Dombrowski.

2019 Red Sox Free Agency: Get Cody Allen

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The Red Sox bullpen is in flux for 2019.  Craig Kimbrel is out there asking for a 6-year deal, which the Red Sox will never give him.  Joe Kelly is also a free agent, and his performance doesn’t exactly inspire.  Because an already bloated Red Sox payroll, it’s looking like a budget bullpen piece is the answer.  The place to go is Cody Allen.

Cody Allen Performance

Between the years of 2014 and 2017, Cody Allen was one of the best closers in the game.  He averaged 32 saves a year as the anchor of a star-studded bullpen that included Andrew Miller.  The Cleveland Indians rode that bullpen to a lot of postseason success, including a run to the 2016 World Series.

In the regular season, he averaged an ERA under 3 during that time, but he stepped it up in the Postseason.  His career Postseason ERA was 0.47 in 19 innings.  That’s positively vintage Mariano Rivera territory.

But then 2018 happened.  He had a 4.70 ERA, lost his closer position, and got blown up in the Postseason.  So what gives?

The information may be behind a paywall, but pitch usage points to a few things – specifically his curveball.  The curve got less swing and misses in 2018, and he had some trouble throwing it for strikes.  Furthermore, he lost a MPH on his fastball, which dipped below 94 MPH.  The fastball/curve mix is what made him so deadly.

Maybe being in a free agent year got to him.  Maybe he was simply tired and in this era of quick hooks and little patience he crumbled.  But he wouldn’t be available if he had remained elite last year.

Contract Possibilities

A quick google search of Cody Allen shows a distinct lack of contract demands.  There are not even stories out there like this one, saying Joe Kelly is being looked at by multiple teams as a closer.  Because of this, it appears clear that Allen would come cheap.  Maybe even on a one year deal.  Now that’s more like it.

Cody Allen isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but he looks pretty good from here.  He’s one year removed from being untouchable in the Postseason for many years.  He’s only 30 years old, he’s cheap, and he would be an excellent gamble to pair with the remaining relievers on the staff, such as Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes, in the late innings.

Furthermore, he is right-handed.  This is essential.  The Red Sox biggest competition, the Astros and Yankees, have a plethora of right-handed, middle of the order bats in their lineups.  To me, that excludes left-handed possibilities for essential bullpen roles like Andrew Miller and Zach Britton.  Kelvin Herrera is also cheap, right-handed, and recently successful, but arm troubles on top of foot troubles make him too risky.

That leaves Cody Allen.  Sign him.

 

 

Red Sox Offseason Lacking Fireworks…And That’s Okay

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I was making the rounds on the Red Sox news circuit yesterday when I came to a sudden realization. This is going to be a boring offseason.

Granted, it’s still incredibly early on. The non-tender deadline for arbitration-eligible players (the first major offseason date) is later tonight at 8 pm ET. The Winter Meetings don’t kick off until December 9th. MLB’s hot stove has been relatively cool thus far, outside of a handful of moves ranging from “Indifferent Shrug” to “Okay, That’s Interesting”. Both New York teams have led the charge by shopping at the Great Seattle Mariners Fire Sale of 2018. The Yankees acquired lefty James Paxton on November 20. Meanwhile, the Mets traded for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox, for their part, haven’t really been involved in much of the early action. There haven’t been any rumors of that changing any time soon.

That makes total sense for a 108-win champion coming off of the best season in franchise history. Boston will likely be returning most of the core group that led 2018’s title run. It has already brought back World Series MVP Steve Pearce on a team friendly 1-year deal and restructured/extended Alex Cora’s current deal through 2021. Both moves were no-brainers, and the Sox moved quickly to tie up those loose ends. The Red Sox also took a flyer on 25-year-old reliever Colten Brewer. Beyond that, the only real questions with this roster involve Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, and which of their homegrown core they can lock up long-term.

It’s a change of pace from last year’s eons-long pursuit of JD Martinez. It’s also a far cry from splashy offseasons like 2014 and 2015. I didn’t hear any reports of Dave Dombrowski sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner with Madison Bumgarner like Theo Epstein did with Curt Schilling in 2003. Trying to decide which sub-70 OPS+ catcher to move on isn’t a fun conversation to have on sports talk radio. The minutiae of sussing out a 6th or 7th reliever don’t really move the needle for many fans. There is some intrigue around second base and Dustin Pedroia’s status moving forward. And, while I personally think first base is an area to upgrade, the team seems happy with their Peace/Mitch Moreland platoon.

Winter can be fickle, and Dombrowski has never been shy about making blockbusters happen. Standing pat after a season where nearly everything went right can be risky, too. However, should the Sox choose to mostly shuffle some minor pieces around while keeping most of a championship roster intact, it will be hard to complain. This team doesn’t feel quite as one-hit-wonder-y as 2013, and doesn’t have as many players set to depart as 2004. The best comparison is 2007. That offseason, a strong mix of young, homegrown talent and veteran stars made it easy to roll things over to 2008.

Besides, next offseason looms large. Some key players that are up for extensions in 2019: Moreland, Martinez (player option) Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, and Xander Bogaerts. Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley become unrestricted free agents the following year. It may be best for Boston to keep its books as clean as possible, with that in mind. That is unless they plan on acquiring a player with the intent to replace one of those guys over the long term.

As is always the case, we’ll have no choice to wait and see what happens. But if push comes to shove, I’m fine if the only offseason addition the Red Sox make is another World Series trophy to their display case.

The Red Sox Should Move on from Kimbrel

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Craig Kimbrel rejected his qualifying offer Monday, making him a free agent. Without Kimbrel, the Red Sox have no obvious candidate to fill in as the closer. However, they have a couple of in-house options and there are several viable free agent candidates who would cost much less than bringing Craig Kimbrel back. These are the reasons the Red Sox should explore those other options.

The Contract

Craig Kimbrel was always going to command a big contract for a relief pitcher. With news the other day that his agent, Scott Boras, claims Kimbrel to be the greatest closer ever, one can expect they are aiming for a big-time payday. What would that entail? My guess is Kimbrel will receive a five-year contract somewhere in the 90-100 million dollar range.

With Kimbrel turning 31 next spring, a 5-year contract could be a bit risky. His velocity might decline over the next couple of years, hurting his effectiveness. As things stand now, his effectiveness already waxes and wanes. For how good Kimbrel is, his control tends to disappear at times, at which point fans are in for a rocky rollercoaster ride in the ninth inning. Do you really want Kimbrel taking up 18-20 million of payroll each year for the next five years? That money would be better spent elsewhere. In addition, with the qualifying offer rejected, the Red Sox would pick up a draft pick if Kimbrel signed elsewhere.

This isn’t meant to criticize Kimbrel, he has been one of the better closers of all-time. He has a career ERA under 2.00 and 333 saves. Just two years ago he had another historic season, nearly striking out half of all batters he faced. However, when looking at his other two seasons in Boston, Kimbrel has been good, but nothing special. In 2016 and 2018 Kimbrel has a 3.04 ERA and walks nearly five batters per nine innings pitched. He’s still a strikeout machine and typically gets the job done, but it raises some questions.

More Important Contracts

Mookie Betts jumps to mind as a player the Red Sox need to extend. As the probable 2018 American League MVP and already a three-time Gold Glove winner, Betts is going to command a very large contract. The Red Sox will need plenty of available space to make an extension with Betts work. It might not happen this year, but with only two arbitration years left before he hits free agency, the Red Sox can’t be sleeping on this.

Chris Sale is another obvious guy as he enters his final year before free agency. Sale has been everything the Sox could have hoped for when they traded for him, going 29-12 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 over his two seasons with the team. Sale is probably a top-five pitcher in all of baseball, it would be hard to lose that. With free agency looming, the Sox should be locking him up long-term this offseason.

Xander Bogaerts is also entering his final season before free agency. A two-time Silver Slugger coming off his best season to date, Bogaerts isn’t going to be cheap to retain either. Bogaerts hit 23 home runs, drove in 103 runners and posted a career-best .883 OPS this season. At a premium position, Bogaerts is an important player and won’t be a cheap one. Can the Sox retain him, Betts and Bogaerts even if they don’t keep Kimbrel?

The Red Sox shouldn’t be doling out massive contracts to guys who pitch 50 innings a year when they have MVPs and Silver Sluggers and potential Cy Young Award winners to lock up.

Free Agent Options

The Red Sox might be able to sign two late-inning options for the price of just Kimbrel, with considerably fewer years of payroll tied up in them. That is the direction they should go in, sign two, maybe even three guys to one or two-year deals to lock down the end of the bullpen. If they keep Joe Kelly, they’d likely be looking at signing two.

David Robertson

Robertson has had a nice career but has always done better in a setup role than as a closer. He had a sub-2.00 ERA his final three years with the Yankees before signing with the White Sox to be their closer. He did a good job but had an ERA above 3.00 all three seasons as their closer. At 34 years old come next season, he isn’t someone the Sox would want to give more than a two-year deal.

Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller is coming off a down season, so it might make some sense for the Sox to pounce. He too will be turning 34 next spring, so he won’t command a long-term deal. Coming off a down season, there is a chance he will be looking to sign a one year deal to reestablish some value. In his down season, Miller still struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. In his four previous seasons, Miller was 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 14.5 K/9. Those are some insane numbers, ones I would love to give him a chance to rebound to.

Adam Ottavino

Ottavino has less mileage on his arm than the other guys, but he’s actually about to turn 33. He has missed time with arm injuries more than once, but when healthy he is good. Pitching in Colorado, Ottavino had a 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 13 K/9 this past season.

Cody Allen

Allen might be looking for a one year deal after having his worst season as a pro this past year.  At just 29 years old, he shouldn’t be nearing the end of his effectiveness, and he might be a bounce-back candidate. In the five years before this past season, Allen had an ERA under 3.00 each season, coming to a 2.59 ERA for that five year period. He has saved 147 games over the past five seasons and strikes out 11.5 batters per nine innings for his career.

These are just some of the many options the Red Sox could explore to help form their bullpen. Joakim Soria, Greg Holland, Jeurys Familia, and Zach Britton are several more options that could be had for a fraction of the cost of Craig Kimbrel. Soria and Holland could probably be had on one-year deals. The Red Sox should be looking to sign a couple of the above players to vie for the closer role.

Miller spent four seasons with the Red Sox already. Staff photo by Christopher Evans.

 

Featured picture from Yahoo! Sports

The 2019 Red Sox Bullpen: The Craig Kimbrel Question

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There are changes coming to the 2019 Red Sox Bullpen.  Yesterday I took a look at Joe Kelly.  The biggest piece, closer Craig Kimbrel, is today’s focus..  Is he worth paying to keep and what are some options out there?

Craig Kimbrel

In 2017 Craig Kimbrel was the 800 lb gorilla of all time Red Sox closers.  5-0 with 35 saves and a 1.43 ERA.  If he had been given more opportunity I’m sure he would’ve had even more saves.

Using a 3 year average is an attempt to have some perspective, but in Kimbrel’s case the 2017 season has a massive effect.  Because Kimbrel’s three year stats are, frankly, amazing: 14.8 K/9 and a 2.52 ERA.

Even then though, the walks show through: 3.8 per 9 innings.  That’s a lot of base runners.  When he’s on his game and striking out the world, it works.  When he’s not, let’s just say Alex Cora going with Chris Sale to close out game five says a ton.  And Kimbrel giving up a two run home run to Kiki Hernandez of all people in game four brought back all those non save situation failures from prior years.

All of this is to say Kimbrel’s not a guarantee to bring back as the 2019 Red Sox closer.  But who is out there who could be a good fit?  Closers who have working in the American League and have postseason experience.

Kelvin Herrera

Kelvin Herrera will undoubtedly be the least expensive option.  He suffered a torn Lisranc ligament in his left foot and had surgery for it on 8/30/2018.  The recovery for that encompasses around six months and requires vigilance.  That means he’ll be available a few weeks into spring training if all goes well.

There’s a lot to like about Herrera.  He is the youngest of this group at 29 on Opening Day 2019.  He also he walks the fewest batters.  His 3 year average is 2.17 walks per 9 is the lowest of all the comparisons I’ve found in the top tier group.  It is that low walk number than allows him to rival Kimbrel in the walk per strikeout stat.  Herrera is 4.6 BB/K, Kimbrel is 4.97 BB/K.

His three year ERA is 3.15 and the Red Sox tried to trade for him at the trade deadline this year.  His injuries were bad luck.  This year was his first extended time on the DL.

Because of his injury there are questions about Herrera, but that will also make him less expensive.  He very well could big the biggest relief Ace bargain of 2019.

Cody Allen

This former Cleveland Indians closer fell out of favor due to an off year in 2018.  While Kimbrel will be 31, Cody Allen will be 30 on opening day 2019.

Even with a bad 2018 he can stand next to Kimbrel at 3.8 BB/9 (Kimbrel is at 3.8) and he’s tantalizing because he will be cheaper than Kimbrel and has had a lot of success.  In 2016 and 2017 he averaged a 2.73 ERA and 31 saves a year with almost 12 K/9.  That is dominant.

Because of 4.70 ERA in 2018 and corresponding difficulties he’s a question.  But a worthy gamble due to the potential of prior years and no obvious injury.

Conclusion

Ultimately I believe Kimbrel will come back if he’s asking for a reasonable salary.  But if he’s pushing $20 Million like Mark Melancon I see a few appealing options out there that have pitched in the American League, in the playoffs, and are at reasonable age.