Tag Archives: Kris Bryant

BSE Baseball Writers MLB Awards Predictions

Leave a reply

With the baseball season arriving, our baseball writers have come together to predict the 2019 award winners. In this article we each choose the winner of the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year Awards for the coming season. We will follow shortly with a second article predicting the division winners and postseason results for the coming season.

American League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Jose Ramirez hit .270 last year with an unlucky 25% hit rate. With his top tier power, peak age, and a Cleveland team gunning for another AL Central crown, the time is ripe for his MVP closeup. Dark horse candidate – Jose Abreu

Scott Frizzell: It is just so hard to pick against Mike Trout. The new $430 million dollar man has finished in the top two every year of his career except one, when he finished fourth after missing six weeks of action. Dark horse candidate – Andrew Benintendi

John Principe: Coming off a year that didn’t end in him winning the MVP, I fully expect Mike Trout to again put up his insane numbers. He’s the closest thing in sports to a perennial lock, and is my pick to stay healthy and win his third MVP. Dark horse candidate – Matt Chapman

Ben Rolfe: Yes, it is the boring pick, but Mike Trout is so far above anyone else in baseball right now it is incredible. If we ignore his small rookie appearance then Trout’s average WAR is 9.2 per year and his numbers are something out of a video game. Dark horse candidate – Luke Voit

Mike Quilty: Mike Trout may be the favorite, but I think Alex Bregman will have a huge year for Houston.

Mike Trout is always a safe bet to be near the top.

National League Most Valuable Player

Thom Howland: Kris Bryant, the former MVP, is over the injuries that sapped his power last year. The Cubs are being counted out, and he will be at the center of their resurgence. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Scott Frizzell: Paul Goldschmidt is leaving the desert for St. Louis this season, and I think he will put up his usual big numbers while helping lead the Cardinals back to the postseason for the first time since 2015. After a dreadful first two months last year, Goldy batted .330 with 26 home runs and a 1.022 OPS from June 1st on. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

John Principe: Bryce Harper is coming off an okay year, but a great contract, what’s in store for him? The new Philly slugger, to me, is poised to breakout again and have his best season since his MVP year in 2015. Look for Bryce to put up another season with an OPS over 1.000, carry his Phils to an NL East title, and win MVP while he’s at it. Dark horse candidate – Ronald Acuna

Ben Rolfe: Nolan Arenado is one of the best fielders at his position and he hits in Coors Field, which always means his hitting numbers will be right up there. His best chance is if he can lead the Rockies back to the playoffs. Dark horse candidate – Jesus Aguilar

Mike Quilty: Paul Goldschmidt had never won the award before but has been close multiple times as a D-Back. After a trade to St. Louis a change of scenery may be just what he needs.

Paul Goldschmidt joins a new team for the first time in his career.

American League Cy Young

Thom Howland: The all-time MLB leader in K/9 and K/BB will put it all together this year. After 6 straight Top 5 AL Cy Young finishes, Chris Sale will finally gain the top spot in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Eduardo Rodriguez

Scott Frizzell: Coming off a fantastic first season in Houston, I will choose Gerrit Cole to win the Cy Young this year. There is no one candidate this year that stands out to me. Dark horse candidate – Shane Bieber

John Principe: Despite struggling in the second half of 2018, I expect a massive year out of Jose Berrios. The bats are a little better behind him, which should work to his advantage. He’s a nasty pitcher with devastating off-speed stuff and will have a good chance to finish at least top 5 in Cy Young voting. Dark horse candidate – Mike Clevinger

Ben Rolfe: The drop in velocity for Chris Sale has me scared, and Gerrit Cole looked so dominant at times last year. He will be a crucial part of a playoff bound rotation and could win 20 games this season.

Mike Quilty: Chris Sale has come in the top five in each of the last six years. Injury last season ended his first shot at the award as he was pitching well. I think Sale will have an amazing year in 2019 and win his first Cy Young.

Chris Sale always finishes in the top five, but can he finally win the coveted award?

National League Cy Young

Thom Howland: Noah Syndergaard went 4-1 with two shutouts in September of last year. Finally healthy after years of nagging injuries, and with an improved Mets team behind him, the promise of his 97+ MPH fastball and devastating off-speed stuff will bring home the NL Cy Young in 2019. Dark horse candidate – Luis Castillo

Scott Frizzell: I tried Noah Syndergaard last season and instead his teammate won the award. I’m going him again. Syndergaard has the stuff to win it, reaching into the upper-90’s with his fastball with a devastating slider thrown around 92. Dark horse candidate – Walker Buehler

John Principe: Walker Buehler came up and absolutely dominated last year. With Kershaw ready to pass the load (and possibly ace status) on to Buehler, this could be a huge breakout year for him in establishing himself as a premier pitcher in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Kyle Freeland

Ben Rolfe: Patrick Corbin moves to a rotation which is known for pitching success on the back of a great 2018. Pitching alongside Max Scherzer gives a perfect person for him to be compared to all season in order to win this award. Dark horse candidate – Robbie Ray

Mike Quilty: Max Scherzer has won three times already, and had a career high last season with 300 strikeouts. He went 18-7 with a 2.53 era and probably would’ve won his fourth if not for Jacob deGrom and his historic season.

“Thor” has electric stuff, but has had some injury troubles.

American League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: As a 19-year-old, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rocketed from Rookie Ball all the way to AAA last year. Along the way he managed a .381 average, 20 Home Runs, and 29 Doubles. He’ll be delayed by a few weeks, but this 20-year-old will rake once he makes the show. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

Scott Frizzell: Eloy Jimenez could have a fantastic rookie season, but it’s hard to go against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after he hit .402 at AA last season. This could shape up similarly to the Ronald Acuna vs Juan Soto race for Rookie of the Year last season. Dark horse candidate – Josh James

John Principe: Possibly the easiest category of all, Vlad Jr. is poised for greatness regardless of when his call-up comes. He’ll be in the show this season, hopefully by the middle of May at the latest. Even with his competitors getting possibly an extra month to pad their stats, Vlad should easily win this award. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Ben Rolfe: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a particularly fun pick, but I cannot see who else it will be. Guerrero is so talented and in a hitter friendly park, he will have every chance to put up huge numbers. Dark horse candidate – Yusei Kikuchi

Mike Quilty: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 19-year-old son of HOF Vladimir Guerrero has dominated every level he’s played at to this point. He’s a great talent with great lineage and will now showcase his talent in the big leagues.

Vlad Jr. is the only unanimous choice.

National League Rookie of the Year

Thom Howland: Fernando Tatis Jr. is another precocious 20-year-old. He hit .286 with 16 HR and 22 Doubles last year in AA. The Padres are moving the newly minted $300 Million Dollar Manny Machado to third base so Tatis Jr. can play every day. Dark horse candidate – Pete Alonso

Scott Frizzell: Nick Senzel keeps getting moved around the field due to being blocked at the big league level all over the infield. His bat will play anywhere though. It looks like his new home will be center field for the Reds. Although I think Pete Alonso might slug 30 home runs for the Mets, I believe Senzel will have a more rounded game, batting around .300 with 15-20 home runs and stolen bases. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

John Principe: The opposite of the AL, this race seems wide open to me. With no clear favorite, the Mets slugger Pete Alonso is my choice.  Alonso has a brilliant eye, and lots of pop in his bat and should have a chance to play first base right away for the Mets. Dark horse candidate – Nick Senzel

Ben Rolfe: Anyone with Nick Senzel’s talent who gets to play in a hitter friendly park is always going to have a great shot of success. Add in the highlight plays he seems to be capable of making in center field and this could be a fun player to watch this season. Dark horse candidate – Chris Paddack

Mike Quilty: If Alex Reyes can finally stay healthy, he has some of the most electric stuff in the entire sport.

Nick Senzel was drafted 2nd overall in 2016.

American League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: The Angels are an afterthought in the AL playoff picture. The A’s funky stadium and Billy Beane’s witchcraft will run out, and Brad Ausmus will have the Angels in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Dark horse candidate – Kevin Cash

Scott Frizzell: I like Thom’s pick of Brad Ausmus. Mike Scioscia had gone stale and in need of replacing, the fresh face of Ausmus will give the club an extra jolt this season. Although their pitching staff is questionable, their lineup is looking rock solid. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

John Principe: After being named a finalist in 2018 due to his innovation and his ability to do lots with very little, Kevin Cash should take the next step and win this year. There’s always the possibility of a team exceeding expectations (i.e. 2018 Athletics) and that manager taking the award, but for now Cash seems like the safest bet. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Ben Rolfe: Rick Renteria could have a perfect storm of young talented players starting to reach their peak and a weak division. The White Sox could push the Indians deep this season and even not making the playoffs that would be enough to get Renteria in consideration for the award. Dark horse candidate – Rocco Baldelli

Mike Quilty: Call me a homer but I’m going with Alex Cora

Can Brad Ausmus lead the Angels to the playoffs in his first season at the helm?

National League Manager of the Year

Thom Howland: Bud Black has two top-five MVP possibilities in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. They have promising starters in Jon Gray, German Marquez, and Kyle Freeland. Black will help their pitching and lead them to the NL Playoffs, despite being given a slim 17.5% chance of doing so. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Scott Frizzell: Last year I said the Phillies would surprise people and hang in the race before ultimately fading. This year, they will win the NL East, and with it Gabe Kapler will take home the Manager of the Year Award. Dark horse candidate – David Bell

John Principe: David Bell has a great opportunity in front of him in his first year leading the Reds. A young lineup that has already proved itself may now have some pitching behind it to support this team. A lot of people have the Reds as the breakout team of 2019, myself included. If they can push themselves into playoff contention in that division, or even over .500, it’s going to be hard not giving this award to Bell. Dark horse candidate – Dave Martinez

Ben Rolfe: This is another case of a perfect storm. Gabe Kapler took a lot of stick for some of his decisions last season. However, now he has a young rotation and an incredibly talented lineup at his fingertips. This team could be in contention for the most wins in the NL. Dark horse candidate – Bud Black

Mike Quilty: I think Dave Roberts will get the Dodgers back to the World Series and have one of the best records. After losing one of his key players, that could be enough to net him this award.

Gabe Kapler and the Phillies are trending up.

Featured picture taken from CBS Philly

Photo Credit: www.nashuatelegraph.com

Mookie Betts Signing: Shades Of Lady Gaga

Leave a reply

The echoes of Lady Gaga’s Poker Face race through the memory banks. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship, 55% less likely, according to odds makers, than the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. Almost as bad as the Patriots odds against the Falcons down 28-3. Gaga performed at halftime, and the rest was history. These were a fraction of the long odds the Red Sox were looking at resigning Mookie Betts a month ago. Then he signed with the Red Sox for $20 Million last week. Is this the turning point that Hightower’s sack of Matty Ice was?

Mookie Betts Contentious Arbitration Cases

It is well documented that Mookie has gone to the wall with the Red Sox in arbitration thus far. It has been trumpeted by Tony Massarotti, among many others, that the Sox have risked completely alienating Betts by going to arbitration after 2017.

In that case, Betts asked for $10.5 Million, and the Red Sox countered with $7.5 Million. Up to that point in history, only Kris Bryant and Ryan Howard had gotten more than $10 Million in their first year of eligibility for arbitration. They agreed before an arbitration hearing, and both had Rookie Of The Year and NL MVPs under their belts at the time. The Red Sox were most definitely looking at Mookie and saying to themselves “Hey, he hasn’t won any major awards, why give him $10.5 Million?”

Arbitration hearings can be contentious. The player is promoting themselves, while the team is tearing them down. A funny thing happened in this case. The Arbitrator sided with Betts, noting his Silver Slugger in 2016, his Gold Gloves in 2016 and 2017, and his MVP runner up in 2016. Hey, not everyone has to compete against Mike Trout.

A New Deal

But then the news came across the wire on January 11th of this year: Mookie Betts had agreed to one year contract with the Red Sox for $20 Million. This after an MVP season in 2018, when he put to bed all the worries that 2016 was a one year aberration. After a historic 105 win season and 11-3 postseason on the road to a World Series Championship.

The fact that the Red Sox have approached him with long term offers that he has rejected don’t seem so real now. His deal of $20 Million sets a record for players with only 4 years in the big leagues, but it’s still a bargain.

Mike Trout is simply the sickest player on the planet. He finished 2017 leading the majors in WAR for the 5th time. He’s played 7 years full years. If he retired tomorrow he would arguably sail into the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot. That’s the guy Mookie beat out for the 2018 AL MVP. Guess who beat Trout out for 2018 WAR lead? That’s right. Mookie Betts. In 2018 he lead the league in batting average at .346, hit 32 homers, stole 30 bases, and won another gold glove, among many other things. Yes, $20 million is a bargain.

The Future

The bars of Gaga’s A Million Reasons ring out:

” I’ve got a hundred million reasons to walk away
But baby, I just need one good one to stay “

Sox fans have a reason to feel good. Because the Sox gave Mookie $20 Million reasons to stay, and by agreeing without going to the wall in arbitration they’ve opened the door to perhaps $300 Million more after 2019.

Is it Alex Cora and a culture of togetherness and support? Maybe it’s JD Martinez and his other teammates that he loves. Could be the joy of working in Fenway Park with all of us screaming his name. Whatever the reason, Mookie has opened the door to a long term deal.

Don’t screw this up Red Sox. And go Pats!

Follow @BostonsportSAHD

Should The Red Sox Go After Noah Syndergaard?

Leave a reply

The Baseball Hot Stove is beginning. It’s winter, so warm up.  There are reports out there that the New York Mets are open to trading Noah Syndergaard.  Could Thor be in the Red Sox future?  Cue the Led Zeppelin and put on your mittens while we take a look.

Syndergaard’s Injuries

Noah Syndergaard has had a number of injuries, but his ‘injury prone‘ label is unwarranted.  In May of 2018, he had a strained ligament in his right index finger.  It’s unknown how he did it, perhaps playing Fortnite or Red Dead Redemption 2 a little too vigorously, but it held him out six weeks.  Then in late July, he suffered from the plague that hit New York pitchers hard: Hand, Foot and Mouth disease.  The scourge of toddlers may be embarrassing, but it’s hardly a long-term problem.

The major injury for Thor was a strained right lat muscle in May of 2017.  I’m not a doctor, so the details are a bit beyond me, but the bottom line is he did not need surgery.  Furthermore, this was not a rotator cuff or elbow injury.  Yes, it wiped out most of his 2017, but there has been no recurrence of the injury.

Contract Status

Because he missed the bulk of 2017, Noah Syndergaard has an incredibly affordable contract for someone of his stature.  He still has three years of arbitration ahead of him, and he’s starting 2019 from the low rung of $2.975 Million.

That means that even if he performs like a Cy Young candidate in 2019 and 2020 he still won’t be breaking the bank.  In short, this man is probably the best bargain in baseball as long as he’s healthy.  And it appears that he is.

End Of 2018 Performance

Syndergaard had a rough August as his body recovered from sickness, but he poured it on in September.  He went 4-1 with two complete games, including a shutout to end the season.  His Statcast average pitch speed was over 97 MPH on his fastball, so he’s still throwing much harder than the average incredible baseball player who is on any Major League roster.

On September 14th, Noah Syndergaard came to Fenway Park and pitched a beauty against arguably the greatest Red Sox team of all time.  7 innings, 3 hits, 6 strikeouts.  After the performance he tweeted out this nugget of a tantalizing possibility:

I’m sorry, but in light of the rumors of his availability, can I freak out now?

How He Fits On The Red Sox

It’s no secret that the Red Sox have a rather large bill coming due at the end of 2019.  Chris Sale’s contract is up.  Xander Bogaerts is hitting free agency.  JD Martinez has an opt-out in his contract.  Mookie Betts even now is looking to break records in arbitration.

As stated above, Syndergaard is cost controlled.  So while he is at that $2.975 Million number and coming off a season where he missed some time and made only 25 starts, Mookie is at $10.5 Million and coming off an MVP season.  The lower you start from in arbitration, the lower you end up the next year, and vice versa.

For a Red Sox team that is paying David Price over $30 Million, with at least that much needing to go to Chris Sale if they want to keep him, Syndergaard is a dream contract.  Furthermore, there is no starting pitcher depth in the Red Sox minor league system.  Low-cost young stars are the lifeblood of successful major league teams.  Noah Syndergaard is the very essence of the solution to these problems.

For these reasons, he won’t come cheap.

What A Trade Would Look Like

Alarmingly, the Red Sox main competition in the American League are pegged as landing spots for Syndergaard.  But the possible assets from the Yankees and Astros can’t measure up to the firepower the Red Sox can offer.

I was willing to trade Rafael Devers for very few players.  Kris Bryant was one of those players.  That is because Bryant is young and an MVP winner and perennial MVP candidate.  But Bryant would cost a lot soon.  Syndergaard is almost the equivalent as a pitcher that Bryant is as a batter and third baseman, and he’s cheap.

I’m also an advocate for taking advantage of Christian Vazquez’s value at this moment in time.

The Mets are working on getting 3B David Wright’s contract off their books.  They also have a hole at catcher.

I think the framework is there for a Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez for Noah Syndergaard swap.  I do know that this is a trade that meets what the Mets may be looking for.

This would be a major shake-up of the future of the Red Sox.  Most likely this would mean the Sox would not be in on Nathan Eovaldi, the Sox number one target of this offseason, but maybe not.  It would definitely mean letting go of all the potential and promise of Rafael Devers.  Perhaps there’s a certain swiss army knife, who’s won a recent World Series with Alex Cora, the Sox could sign to play third?

The Mets GM, Brodie Van Wagenen, is an unknown entity at the moment.  There’s no telling what he may do, but he is contacting a lot of starting pitchers’ agents.  It certainly appears he’s readying to trade Thor.

Think of top of this rotation on opening day: Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, David Price.  Kind of makes the drool flow freely from your gaping mouth right?

Red Sox Trade Potential 2019: Rafael Devers For Kris Bryant

Leave a reply

A shock-wave spread across the MLB Hot Stove when Buster Olney reported that the Chicago Cubs could trade Kris Bryant.  The Red Sox minor league system is bare, but Rafael Devers is young, cheap, talented, and a powerful trade chip.  Would a Rafael Devers Kris Bryant swap make sense?

Rafael Devers

Devers can be seen as a Red Sox wunderkind.  He will only be 22 years old at the start of 2019 season.  At that tender age, his accomplishments are many.  Here are just a few:

  • His Baseball Reference page compares him at a similar age to Willie Mays and Cal Ripken Jr.
  • He’s the youngest Red Sox player to hit a Home Run since Tony Conigliaro in 1965.
  • He has a .884 OPS in the postseason including 3 Home Runs and 14 RBI in 15 games.

Because of these, and many other great performances, most consider him an untouchable.  And for the vast majority of all the talent in all the world, he is.

But what if he could be the centerpiece, or only piece, in a trade for one of the best young players in all of baseball?

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant himself is seen as a Chicago Cubs wunderkind.  At the tender age of 26, he has already been a Rookie Of The Year, an NL MVP, and linchpin of a 2016 World Series Championship for the Cubbies.

Devers may be full of potential, but Bryant is a monster and has proved it over a much larger sample.  Bryant is also playing much better defense than Devers at third base.

So why would the Cubs trade him?  Because many of the same concerns the Red Sox have had with Mookie Betts.  Bryant has refused to talk long-term extension with the Cubs.

Now, Theo Epstein, the President of the Cubs, downplayed the possibility of trading Bryant.  But what do we expect him to say?  If there is even a possibility, this could be an incredible opportunity.

In the spring of 2017, the Chicago Cubs visited Fenway Park for a 3 game series.  It was a brief glimpse of the kind of, pardon the term, damage Bryant could do.  In those 3 games, he hit 2 Home Runs, 2 Doubles, and had a 1.429 OPS.

Red Sox Payroll Concerns 2020

At the end of the 2019 season, the Red Sox have a number of payroll concerns.  Among them are trying to sign Mookie Betts to a long-term deal, Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts becoming free agents, and JD Martinez having an opt-out in his contract.

Having Kris Bryant, a superstar, on the team at a lower number through 2021, would provide some flexibility for the Sox in the short term.  And Bryant is a much better bet to invest in than Rafael Devers.  Bryant is simply a better player.

Because of Rafael Devers’ postseason success, and tantalizing thoughts of Willy Mays and a young and healthy Tony C, he could be a one for one trade chip for Kris Bryant.  And hey, it’s just the kind of trade Dave Dombrowski is known for.

The Top Third Basemen in MLB Long-Term

Leave a reply

There is a lot of talent at the hot corner. In fact, Mike Moustakas hit 38 home runs last season and isn’t even on a team as of this writing. He hit more home runs than any other third baseman last season. Yet, it’s debatable whether or not he is a top 10 third baseman moving forward. Weighing offense, defense, base running and age, these are my top 10 for the long haul.

1. Nolan Arenado

Arenado has arguably been a top five player in all of baseball three years running. Arenado led the league in both home runs and runs batted in during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last season he led the league in doubles while hitting a career high .309. During that three year stretch, his average season has been .297 with 40 home runs, 40 doubles, 131 RBI and a .353/.577/.930 slash line. He might be the best current player to have not won an MVP Award.

Arenado does benefit by playing half his games at high altitude, but he’d be a superstar regardless. Most players hit better at home regardless, so whereas he does receive added benefit at Coors, you can’t completely write off his elevated numbers at home. Arenado has still hit 56 homers on the road over the past three seasons, compared to his 64 at Coors. That is not much of a difference. The biggest gap is at batting average, where comfortability in a home park plays a big role. It will be interesting to watch what happens if he leaves Colorado in a couple of years, but I don’t think the drop off will be steep.

What secures Arenado in the top spot for me is his excellent defense in addition to the hitting. Arenado has won the Gold Glove all five seasons he has played in. His dWAR has been 1.9 or better in each season and he has averaged over 20 defensive runs saved per season. Among third basemen, he has led the league in range factor per game in every season.

2. Kris Bryant

Bryant just might be the most dangerous amongst all third basemen with a bat in his hands. He won Rookie of the Year and the MVP in his first two seasons. The belief is that he dropped off a bit from his MVP season last year, but that’s not as true as one might think. His home runs fell off from 39 to 29, and his runs batted in fell way off. However, if you look more closely, his other stats are very similar. His batting average was nearly identical, and he got on base at a much higher clip. His slugging percentage, even with the dip in home runs, was not much lower. This led to Bryant actually improving his .939 OPS in 2016 to .946 last year.

Bryant is always going to hit a lot of home runs. One big key for him is his declining strike out rate. Bryant is dangerous when he gets wood on the ball, so the fact he has struck out less in each season is huge. Bryant led the league with 199 strike outs his rookie season. He cut 45 strike outs off that total in his MVP season, and lowered it all the way down to 128 last year. Hand-in-hand with that, he struck out in less than 20% of his at-bats last season, down from 30.6% in his rookie season. He also walked a career high 95 times last year. With his ability to put the ball in play more often, I would be surprised if Bryant didn’t bounce back to 35 home runs this season.

Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs hits against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning during a game on July 16, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott)

3. Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez’ star has skyrocketed the last two seasons. A lightly heralded young utility player heading into 2016, Ramirez batted .312 and hit 46 doubles that year. Last year he launched his game into a new stratosphere, hitting 29 homers and leading the league with 56 doubles. His .957 OPS was .002 behind Nolan Arenado for the highest among all third basemen. Ramirez was a legitimate MVP candidate, finishing in third place for the award.

Ramirez has a reliable glove, generally fielding what he gets to. He doesn’t have the range of some others, leaving him with mediocre advanced statistics for the position. With how good he is offensively though, he is among the best. He has a .315 batting average and .892 OPS over the past two seasons. Remarkably, he has hit over 100 doubles in just two seasons. He can run a little too, stealing 39 bases the last two seasons.

4. Josh Donaldson

At 32, Donaldson is a lot older than the guys above him. However, he is not so old that he should be dropped far down the list. He should still have several years of excellent play left in him. To this point, he has an MVP Award and two other top five finishes. He has homered over 30 times all three seasons with the Blue Jays, and his .939 OPS during his MVP season is actually the lowest of his three years in Toronto. He has an average of 37 home runs during that span and a .946 OPS.

Donaldson goes all out in the field, routinely dirtying up his jersey. He is the type of player you appreciate as a fan; a star who also gives it his all. His defense has slipped a bit the past two seasons, but he has still been above average at the position and has historically been a very good fielder.

5. Alex Bregman

Bregman was the second overall pick in 2015 and was in the majors the following year. Turning 24 around the start of the season, there is plenty of room for growth. In his first full season, Bregman struck out in 15.5% of his at-bats, an excellent mark in this day and age. He batted .284 with 19 home runs and 39 doubles. With continued improvement, I see him becoming a .300 hitter with 25 home run power. He puts the ball in play, and the hard hit contact should continue to improve with age and experience. He even stole 17 bags last year.

Bregman is average in the field, posting a 0.5 dWAR over his first two seasons. However, he was only 23 last season. Bregman also had to learn the position in the pros, as he played mostly shortstop in the minors. As someone who had the ability to play short, I would not be surprised by some defensive improvement at third as he gains more experience there.

6. Rafael Devers

Devers is practically a baby still, playing last season at the age of 20; and all he did was hit. Appearing in the top 20 of most prospect rankings two consecutive years, Devers has always been followed by a lot of hype. He batted over .300 with a .955 OPS between two minor league stops last season. When he reached Boston, he did not stop. Devers hit 10 home runs, giving him a total of 30 for the season. His approach wasn’t all or nothing either, as Devers hit for a .284 batting average. He struck out a fair amount, but the rate was not so high as to get worried. His strike out rate in the minor leagues was always in the teens too, so I would expect his rate to come down. He also has a good hitting approach, routinely using the whole field.

Devers fielding was rocky last season, but give the kid a break; he wasn’t even old enough to drink. His fundamentals at the position are sound, he just needs to keep his focus better and gain more experience. Still just 21 this coming season, I wouldn’t even be worried yet if his defense was still sub par this year. Ultimately, I believe he will develop into at least an adequate third baseman defensively.

7. Anthony Rendon

This spot for Rendon might be a little unpopular, but he’s been around five years now and just had a real breakout last season at the age of 27. I do believe he is an excellent player, but he has been fragile dating back to his college days. Before last season, he’d only had one season as good as what Bregman did last year, or even what Devers did over a partial season. I just trust Bregman more to be consistently good year to year, and I think Devers upside is much higher. If Rendon can stay healthy though, he should be a good player for a while to come.

Over his first four seasons, Rendon batted .274 with just 13 home runs per season. Accounting for injury, that number jumps to 18 home runs per 162 games. Still, not overly impressive. He has hit 20 or more home runs in all three of his healthy seasons though, albeit barely. His .777 OPS over his first four seasons jumped all the way up to .937 last season. Some of it might have to do with the lively ball, but a lot of it probably has to do with him peaking at 27 years old and being healthy for a second consecutive season. He seems like someone who could settle in as a .300 hitter with 20 home runs per year.

8. Miguel Sano

If the allegations against Sano don’t pull him off the field, he should be one of the top home run hitters at the position for years. That is, if he remains at the position. Sano has bounced between third and right field some and hasn’t been impressive at either position. He has a .941 career fielding percentage at third and a negative dWAR. Unsurprisingly, he also grades out negatively in defensive runs saved. At 6’4″ 260, Sano looks like a long-term DH. However, he is at third base for now, so on this list he shall fall.

With his huge body, Sano has immense raw power. His contact rate holds him back some, as he has struck out over 170 times in consecutive years. He has struck out in nearly 36% of his Major League at-bats. That number has to come down for him to ever reach his full potential. He hits the ball hard though when he does hit it, and that hard contact rate will lead to high batting averages on balls in play. His BABIP last season was .375, and it was as high as .396 in his rookie season. If Sano can stay on the field, he could be a threat for 40 home runs. Currently, he is averaging 37 home runs per 162 games played.

9. Justin Turner

Turner isn’t higher on this list because he is 33 years old now. The guys above him should have many more years of production in them. Turner is an excellent hitter though, putting the ball in play often and causing damage when he does. His strike out rate was best amongst all third basemen last season. A year after hitting a career high 27 home runs, Turner batted .322 with 21 homers and a .945 OPS last year.

A mechanical change at the plate and hitting the ball in the air more often have not sacrificed Turner’s contact rate. Once a utility player, Turner broke out in that role in 2014, his first season with the Dodgers. Since gaining an expanded role, Turner has batted .295 and averaged 21 home runs per season over the last three. He should still be an excellent hitter for a few more years, and that to me warrants a spot in the top ten.

Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner follows through on a swing for a solo home run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

10. Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager is as steady as they come. He doesn’t wow at the plate, but he puts up roughly the same numbers year in and year out. Seager has homered at least 25 times in four straight seasons, and 20 or more in six straight. His average bottomed out a bit at .249 last season, but he had batted between .260 and .278 in each of the four previous seasons. In all, he has batted .264 and averaged 25 home runs per season since becoming a regular in 2012. At 30 years old, it doesn’t look like he’s going to change much. He is who he is, and that’s a very solid third baseman.

Seager is just as good in the field, winning a Gold Glove in 2014. He has averaged more than 1.0 dWAR over the past four seasons His range factor has also been consistently above the league average every season. Seager should be a steady contributor at the hot corner for a while still to come.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Moustakas, Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, Adrian Beltre, Eugenio Suarez

 

Featured picture from Mile High Sports.